We intend to offer up our design notes regarding our simulation of the 2nd Russo-Ukrainian War, beginning with Volume 1: Miracle on Dnipro: Kyiv & Chernihiv campaign, from time to time. Given that we are designing a simulation regarding an ongoing conflict, it’s a first draft of history. Consequently, at least you’ll get some insight into why we got some items wrong. 🙂 Feel free to break out a beverage of your choice. We’ll also include a recipe for a cocktail, mocktail or appetizer at the end of each bit.
To knock out Russian vehicles, Ukrainian teams lie in wait along roads — sometimes for days — before firing their missiles and sprinting away to their own vehicles for a quick escape.
That’s the basic tactic the Ukrainians have worked out as Russia’s wider war in Ukraine enters its sixth week. Ukrainian missileers packing foreign-supplied anti-tank guided missiles, such as the American Javelin, as well as locally made ATGMs such as the Stugna-P and Corsar, have plucked at the Russian invasion force, knocking out a vehicle here and a vehicle there until the losses have become unsustainable for the Kremlin.
The exact numbers are impossible to pin down, but Ukraine’s fast-moving ATGM teams undoubtedly have taken out hundreds of tanks and other vehicles. Missile ambushes probably account for a significant proportion of the roughly 2,200 major pieces of hardware that outside analysts can confirm Russia has lost since widening its war in Ukraine starting on the night of Feb. 23.”
Forbes, April 2, 2022
On the battlefield, the Ukrainian military is conducting a hugely effective and mobile defense, using their knowledge of their home turf to stymie Russian forces on multiple fronts, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on Thursday.
General Milley said some of the tactics employed by Ukrainian troops included using mobile weapons systems to bedevil the Russians wherever they could. Ukraine’s forces, he told reporters traveling with him in Europe, are “fighting with extraordinary skill and courage against Russian forces.”
U.S. officials have been impressed with the fighting prowess of the Ukrainians…”
“In combat, it’s always different than what you thought it’d be, and the side that learns faster and adapts faster will win out,” said Frederick B. Hodges, the former top U.S. Army commander in Europe who is now with the Center for European Policy Analysis. “So far, Ukraine is learning and adapting faster.”
Thomas Bullock, an open-source analyst from Janes, the defense intelligence firm, said Russian forces have made tactical errors that the Ukrainians have been able to capitalize on. “It looks like the Ukrainians have been most successful when ambushing Russian troops,” Mr. Bullock said. The Russians “have stuck to main roads so that they can move quickly and not risk getting bogged down in mud. But they are advancing on winding roads and their flanks and supply routes are overly exposed to Ukrainian attacks. And that is where they have had their most success.”
NYT, March 3, 2022
The 2nd Russo-Ukrainian War has forced us to re-examine how we model modern warfare. As designers of Defiance, we’re adapting a 1990’s model of RMA / multi domain / extended battlespace military conflict. In particular, we’re tackling partisan operations in the age of drone and shoot & scoot /fire and forget platforms. A few background pieces:
The Untold Story of the Battle for Kyiv, Thayer, D. Rice, 2-JUN-22,
A Small, Stubborn Town, A Harding, 2023
Why have Ukrainian ATGMs destroyed so many Russian tanks? , IWM, video
February & March 2022 witnessed effective partisan/SOF operations throughout Ukraine; and specifically in the forests around Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv. Small bands, a dash of supplemental NATO training, a few SOF and/or hardened regular army coaches, bundles of NATO supplied Javelins/NLAWsRPGs/Stugna-Ps, Stingers, “How to Fire a Javelin” vids, crowd sourced intel and committed local & foreign volunteers formed kill teams. The infamous 65 km Russian column winding through the forests northwest of Kyiv (think Teutoburg v2) became a frequent recipient of Ukrainian partisan/SOF wrath. So how to best model this aspect of the conflict?
First, we develop a pool of counters, “VOVK” [Ukrainian for wolf]. The pool is segmented into 4 groups that increasingly improve in quality as the conflict progresses. Group 1 below:
Counters are placed as a result a chit pull whenever a Russian unit enters an empty Ukrainian controlled woods, town or urban hex. If a VOVK counter is generated (sometimes, other surprises occur), a die roll determines the outcome of a triggered encounter. TQ (Troop Quality) is critical; reflecting our view that TQ mattered more than quantity during the initial campaign.
Then, we needed a model to handle encounters with partisans/SOF forces. Defiance provides both a meeting engagement and set piece battle mechanic for combat. After repeated playtesting, We concluded that neither really did a good job of modeling partisan/SOF encounters with regular Russian forces. So, we had to invent: something to be avoided when designing wargames & simulations ; better to just steal from the best [Ted Raicer: “It is better to steal than invent when designing wargames”].
We’re VERY lucky to have a combat veteran (and fantastic wargamer) as our developer (Bob Heinzmann). He provided insight based upon applicable experience. The three of us work well together: a blend of on the ground experience in Ukraine & Russia, combat experience, simulations for the DoD regarding modern/current/hypothetical conflicts, three life-long rabid wargamers, three Johnny Cash & Springsteen fans, two strategy consultants, one nominal graphic artist, one prolific game designer and a nutcase.
After some all-day collaboration (“ONE DICE DR. PER ENCOUNTER: JUST ONE!”), the VOVK Encounter Table “jelled”: 1D10 (one ten sided die) generates the result depending upon various drms (die roll modifiers) and “conditions”:
At the moment, we’re pretty happy with the result. We believe it reflects a wide variety of encounter inputs and outputs. We’ll see if it survives further playtesting.
We’re true to our word. Here’s a recipe for a favorite cocktail we enjoyed at a gaming retreat weekend in early, COLD, January while playing Great War Commander (which we thoroughly enjoyed! – fantastic adaptation of Combat Commander…and it has WW1 TANKS!). You may not have simple syrup. We ran out. Luckily, Bill P had a recipe: 1 part sugar, 1 part water. I cut it in half: ½ cup sugar, ½ cup water. Boil or nuke it.
A French 75 is best served when playing your favorite WW1 game…such as Paths of Glory, La Grande Guerre or Great War Commander.
Previous Defiance InsideGMT Articles:
First Draft of History: Designing a Military Simulation of the Russo-Ukraine War 2022-2023
Author: D. B. Dockter and Mark Herman
I’m not sure how to go about signing up for P500 games. I have been playing wargames for 50 years (I turned 64 today) and I want to sign up for Defiance Volume 1. I took both German and Russian in high school to help with my studies of the Eastern Front. I don’t think you can get more WWII nerdy than that. Love and peace to the wargaming community. We are studying the disease of war. I hope 🙏 for a cure.
Hi John-
To P500 order Defiance, you would go to the P500 page first (https://www.gmtgames.com/p-1087-defiance-2nd-russo-ukrainian-war-2022.aspx) and add it to your cart, then check out as normal with the address and credit card or Paypal info you’d like us to use to charge the game. At checkout today, you would be charged $0 for the game. This is how our P500 system works. When you pre-order, you are not charged until a few weeks before the game ships. So for example if Defiance starts shipping in 2025, you would not be charged the P500 price of the game, $64 + shipping, until 2025. I hope this information helps!