Ian M. Sullivan is the Special Advisor for Analysis and ISR at the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

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Game Turn 9

Next War India-Pakistan, Game Turn 9, and Ceasefire. Turn 9 was overcast, and the Allies held the initiative. At the start of the turn, a UN Ceasefire roll succeeded, so the combatants had the rest of the turn to finish the fight. It began with the Allied SOF striking the enemy IADS, and targeting the headquarters of the Chinese 43rd Airborne Division and the Pakistani XI Corps. The strike on the IADS damaged the Pakistani search radars, which was further degraded by a successful US cyber attack.

The air superiority phase again favored the Allies, whose qualitative and quantitative edge at this point is telling. The handful of Pakistani and Chinese fighters that took to the air were swept aside, with the USMC F-35B splashing a PAF J-10 squadron. The Marine Corps Lightning ended up as one of the most successful fighter squadrons of the whole conflict.

The Chinese and Pakistani SOF phase was mildly successful, destroying an Indian airbase, which also wrecked an IAF Su-30 squadron. This was followed up with a Pakistani Hatf strike which destroyed another airbase, and with it a squadron of USAF F-16s. The US fired several TLAM strikes which further targeted enemy headquarters formations. The Allies pounded the enemy IADS with successful Wild Weasel strikes, which opened the airspace for Allied fighter-bombers. Strike Eagles applied another round of punishment against the Chinese 43rd Airborne Division headquarters and hit hard the Pakistani XI Corps Headquarters.

The Allies picked up the pace of the fighting on all fronts. In western Punjab, the Indian I Corps threw two divisions and a mechanized brigade against the Pakistani city of Pakpattan. In two separate attacks, which included air support from MiG-27 Floggers, the Indians crushed the Pakistani 41st Division, which had held the city, and moved into the city. The powerful Indian 33rd Armored Division cleared the city.

On the Lahore front, the Indians launched two separate, multi-Corps attacks against the Pakistani defenders. With heavy artillery and rocket support, along with air support from AH-64s, LCH, and Mirage, a bold attack crushed the Pakistani 33rd Division in the eastern section of Lahore. The Indian 15th Division, which so ably held Amritsar in the early part of the war, along with the 14th Armored Brigade, cleared half of the city. A second attack against the rest of the metroplex failed to dislodge the Pakistani defenders, who still cling to their positions. However, the Indian XII Corps completed an encirclement of the city, with the 12th Division severing the Lahore-Okara Highway. 

In Jammu, the Indian IX Corps finally ended resistance in Sialkot, and the Indian XII Corps made it to the gates of Jammu City to help defend against the Pakistani X Corps.

The fighting in Kashmir was a swirling Donnybrook, as Allied formations using their outstanding mobility hounded the fleeing Chinese 47th Group Army and Pakistani X and XI Corps.

The Allies landed two brigades—the US 3-101 and the UK 16th Airmobile Brigade—to cut the Islamabad-Kashmir Road. Supported by US and UK Apaches and Canadian CF-18s, these brigades attacked and destroyed the PLA 55th Motorized Brigade. Advancing northwest from the Baramula road, three more Allied Formations—1-101, 2-82, and the French 13th Demi-Brigade—engaged the PLA 12th Armored Brigade. Backed by two squadrons of Apaches and USAF F-16s, the Allies obliterated this Chinese heavy formation.

Farther to the east, the US 10th Mountain Division pushed through remaining Pakistani border defenses, and caught the other tail of the retreating Chinese column. The three BCTs of the 10th, supported by more Apaches and USAF F-16s, caught and destroyed the battered headquarters of the Chinese 43rd Airborne Division.

Outside Srinagar, the hard-fighting Indian 6th Mountain Division engaged the isolated Chinese 134th Airborne Brigade, which had refused to surrender. Supported by Jaguar, the Indian Mountain troops eliminated the last Chinese Airborne brigade on the map.

The Allies were not done, however, and used their air mobile formations to cut off and destroy two other Pakistani divisions. Along the Islamabad track, the US 1-101 and UK 16th Airmobile Brigade air assaulted to strike the Pakistani 7th Division from the west, while the 2-82 and 13th Demi-Brigade struck from the east. Supported by Canadian CF-18s, this attack crushed the Pakistani Division. To the Southeast, the US 3-82, 2-101, and 173rd Airborne Brigade, supported by USN Super Hornets, overran the Pakistani X Corps’ rearguard—the 12b Division—recapturing the town and airfield at Poonch, which the Pakistanis took early in the war.

The Pakistanis could do little in the face of this Indian riposte. They launched a spoiling attack southeast of Gujranwala, which wrecked the Indian 14th Division and a separate attack out of Okara, which destroyed the battered Indian 24th Mechanized Brigade, but these served little strategic value. The last formation the Pakistanis had relatively intact was X Corps, which finally got a division across the Chenab River near Jammu City, but an attack on it was a failure. With that last attack, the UN Cease-Fire took effect.

Lessons Learned: Jai Hindi! The war ended on turn 9, but it is probably fortunate for mankind that I rolled for a cease-fire when I did, because absent the cease-fire, Pakistan almost certainly would have to have used nuclear weapons. I imagine that Pakistani diplomats were pretty busy telling India and the Allies to end the war before nuclear strikes were necessary.

So as a result of the cease-fire, this turn was all about inflicting losses and punishing Pakistan and China, and the Allies certainly obliged. The Indians were bold in this turn and it clearly paid off. They had no business, for example, launching an attack on Lahore, which in spite of the less than optimal odds, succeeded wildly. Although accomplished with slightly better odds, the Indian attack on Pakpattan also proved amazingly successful. The Allied operations in Kashmir were frenetic, and I have to say very fun to play. The air mobile formations buzzed and struck like angry wasps across the battlefield, moving with impunity in the face of the degraded Pakistani/Chinese IADS. The combination of airmobile, mountain, and motorized formations able to move across the difficult terrain were irrepressible and they destroyed more than three divisions worth of Chinese and Pakistani forces on that turn alone.

In the end, the Pakistani invasion was an abject failure, and only the Pakistani X Corps held any Indian territory at the cease-fire. It still held two towns in Kashmir. For their part, the Allies held four Pakistani cities, including half of Lahore’s metropolis. The game ended with the Allies recording 30 Victory Points, which translates to a Substantive Allied Victory. Jai Hindi (Victory to India), indeed!

Final Thoughts

Next War: India-Pakistan, Final Report. So as a reminder, I played the Border War scenario, which postulates a Pakistani attack into India that achieved a measure of strategic surprise. China supported Pakistan, while the US, Commonwealth, and France supported India. I played with the cyber rules from Supplement 1 and the S-300/Patriot rules from Supplement 2.

The first thing to talk about is the terrain, which in many ways, made this game as interesting as it was. After last playing NW: Korea, which is so grand in scope and scale, I was wondering if I would find a one map game too quaint. Boy was I wrong! The confluence of so much unique terrain on a single map made for a fascinating game that essentially gave me three distinct fights in a small package. The fight in the Punjab was a ranging mobile battle punctuated by difficult river crossings, marshland, and of course densely built-up urban areas. Just to its east were the rolling wooded hills of Jammu, which offered its own challenges of trying to move and position forces to converge combat power. And then there was Kashmir, with its snow covered peaks and narrow roads through jagged rock crags, leading to a lush river valley. This diversity of terrain is what I will remember most about this game.

I have been professionally interested in this area for some time, and remember tracking the conflict in Kargil back in the late 1990s. It was really interesting to me to get to see how the Indian and Pakistani forces stacked up. What I learned from the game is that they are qualitatively similar, although when fully mobilized, India’s quantitative edge is formidable. Both sides’ army corps were very evenly matched, and there were some very powerful armored and mechanized formations on the map. This equality, however, created real difficulties for Pakistan on the offensive. It’s corps were not terribly flexible in the attack, and they lacked the combat support and enabling capabilities to break Indian resistance, which made good use of the rivers and cities on the defensive. More on that later.

The fight in the air was very interesting, and was actually rather equal for a long period of time. The IAF had an advantage in quantity and quality, but it was offset by the early arrival of the PLAAF. Even with the arrival of US and Allied air power, the air picture remained contested for a longer portion of time than in any of the other NW games that I have played. However, the arrival of significant US air power, particularly USAF aircraft, made a real difference, as the PAF and PLAAF already were a bit fought out. It was interesting that in this game, the first US aircraft to arrive came from the Navy, and naval air really was essential in this game, far more than in some of the others that I have played. When the Allies gained air superiority, they kept it, and it opened the door for some of the dynamic fighting which occurred In Kashmir in the game’s last few turns.

I also want to take a moment to talk about the strike phases. The use of ballistic and cruise missiles were essential in this game, although India and Pakistan quickly blazed through their arsenals. Chinese and US cruise missiles also were prominent, but both sides had relatively limited stockpiles in this game. Missile strikes were key killers of aircraft in this game, particularly for Pakistan and China, but they just could not keep up the fire to seriously degrade the Allied air forces. Nevertheless, things were tense for the Allies, who at games’ end had five airbases destroyed. If I played this again, I think I would definitely increase China’s missile supply, adding some ballistic missiles to support their intervention.

The SOF and Cyber wars also were very intense. The SOF fight was difficult for both sides, and losses were very heavy. Early Pakistani/Chinese successes raiding airbases and the Indian IADS ended quickly, and they played only a bit part for them moving forward. Allied SOF was slightly more successful in pounding away at the Pakistani IADS and raiding headquarters formations and the critical S-300 SAMs China deployed to Kargil. Indeed Allied SOF became very useful in enabling targeting, which opened the way for punishing strikes by USAF bombers and strike aircraft.

The cyber fight was also dynamic, as the two sides deployed significant cyber resources. Indeed, this may have been be the most contested cyber environment I have yet dealt with in any NW game. What was most interesting, however, was the cyber attrition that occurred. The two sides’ cyber forces repeatedly clashed, attacking and defending on many levels. The “losses” were significant, as sides sacrificed capabilities for effects, particularly in the early turns. The Allies won the cyber fight, and in the end, effectively used these capabilities to weight key engagements in their favor and to seemingly continuously degrade the Pakistani IADS.

Battling the IADS was an important feature of the game. Both India and Pakistan seem to put more stock in their aircraft than in ground based air defenses. The game shifted a bit when the Chinese added the S-300 and the US brought Patriot to the mix, but at least from the Allied side, they quickly subjected the S-300s to a withering attack, focusing strike aircraft, missiles, SOF, and cyber against them.

One last note needs to be made on the use of aircraft. Pakistan truly suffered from a lack of multi-role aircraft that are capable not just at air-to-air combat, but also in conducting close air support or strike missions. They had only a handful of F-16s and Mirages that were multi-role capable, which meant they had difficulty in terms of providing air support to critical battles. They also had only one squadron of attack helicopters, which was destroyed early in the game. India had a more balanced air component, and its helicopters and strike aircraft—Mirage, Jaguar, and MiG-27–were very valuable in the air-to-mud role.

Back to to the ground fight. I mentioned earlier about how evenly matched the sides were. Even before India was fully mobilized, it quickly became apparent that Pakistan really would not have the combat power to prevail in the Punjab. They struck hard, and India’s commitment to a forward defense probably played into their hands, but they just could not break through. The Indian lines were nearly ruptured, and the Pakistanis made it as far south as Pathankot, but the fight really came down to the early battles for the key city of Sri Ganganagar and the metropolis of Amritsar. Pakistan needed to take those cities early, and it just could not get it done. They eventually took the former, but just could not take Amritsar, which drew forces to it, and served as a sea wall to break the Pakistani tide. The Pakistanis lost too much combat power around Amritsar. It gave India a chance to breathe and form a line along the Ravi River. It also allowed them a chance to contain the Pakistani offensive. The Indians truly prevailed on that front.

The Indians attrited the Pakistanis so heavily on this front it allowed them to shift the attack into Pakistan. They contained what essentially became a fruitless Pakistani drive on Jammu, and then counterattacked, and Pakistan lacked the combat power to stop them. Bold Indian thrusts in the Punjab, ably assisted by the USMC III MEF, pushed the Pakistanis back. In a stunning double envelopment, they isolated Lahore, Pakistan’s largest city, and in an attack reminiscent of the Israeli capture of Jerusalem in 1967 for sheer hutzpah, occupied half of the metropolis. The heroes of that fight were the Indian 15th Division, which so ably fended off the Pakistani attack on Amritsar. By the cease-fire, the Indians occupied Pakpattan, the Lahore suburb, part of the the Lahore metroplex, and the fortress city of Sialkot inside Pakistan. They had more than four division’s worth of combat power north of the Sutlej River.

Kashmir needs its own commentary, as in many ways it was a completely different fight. The Pakistanis invaded Kashmir with the specialized FCNA Corps of mountain troops and elements of its X Corps, which split its formations between Jammu and Kashmir. The early Pakistani attacks were fairly successful, and they hurled back the Indian XIV Mountain Corps and XV Corps, which fell back from the mountains into a defensive perimeter within the Kashmir Valley. Soon augmented by what eventually amounted to three Chinese airborne divisions, the Indians were gradually pushed back. The city of Baramula fell to the Chinese, and the FCNA Corps eventually crossed the Jhelum River and attempted to close on Srinagar. The Pakistanis also deployed a reinforcing formation, the XI Corps to the area.

The fight changed when the Allies reinforced the area. First, the Indian 6th Mountain Division and 50th Airborne Brigade arrived to stiffen the defenses of Srinagar. Then came the US 82nd Airborne Division and 173rd Airborne Brigade, followed quickly by the 10th Mountain Division, the 101st Air Assault Division, the Australian 1st Division, the UK 16th Airmobile Brigade, and the French 13th Demi-Brigade of the Foreign Legion and 2nd Marines. The Chinese added the 47th Group Army to the mix, and we had a fascinating fight in some of the world’s most difficult terrain.

It soon became apparent that the side that could best deal with the terrain would prevail, and that was the Allies. Their ability to move by air, and for their mountain troops, to at least move off the road network was essential to the fight. They contained the Pakistani push to Srinagar and crushed the FCNA Corps. They outmatched and outmaneuvered the Chinese airborne formations, reclaiming Baramula and isolating Chinese airborne in the Kargil area. And finally, over the last few turns, they launched a dizzying series of attacks ranging into Jammu and into Pakistan to punish enemy formations.

In previous games, I was impressed by the flexibility of the Chinese Group Army. I was not in this game. The 47th Group Army should have made an impact, but its inability to move in the mountain terrain kept it stacked up and unable to unleash its combat power. It was defeated head on by the 10th Mountain, US Paratroopers and French Legionaries in the Kashmir Valley, and then hounded some more by the 82nd and 101st into Pakistan.

The boldest Allied attack came in Kashmir, when the UK 16th Airmobile Brigade and French 2 RPIMa launched an air assault to wrest Kargil from the Chinese. They did this into the teeth of a Chinese S-300 battalion deployed to the airfield. Although the French Marines were destroyed in the air, the Brits landed, took the town, and eliminated the S-300. This attack opened the way for a frenetic series of attacks by Allied formations across Jammu and Kashmir, all the way to the approaches of Islamabad which resulted in the destruction of more than three divisions of Chinese and Pakistani combat power. These attacks would not have been possible without the quality of the Allied formations and the ability for brigades to operate flexibly under multiple divisional headquarters. British, Australian, French, and US paratroopers and airmobile troops of the 101st Air Assault seamlessly co-mingled in these attacks, which must have left their enemies dizzy.

I also need a few words to talk about nuclear forces, which were not employed in this game. This conflict remained conventional, although if it went another turn Pakistan would likely have had no choice but to use them. It was suggested to me in the comments that Pakistan probably should have used them somewhere around turn 5 to break the defense of Amritsar. This analysis may have been correct in terms of gameplay. I just did not think that Pakistan would use them in a what likely would have become a tit-for-tat series of counter-value strikes. Again, this is my bias which sometimes comes out when I play these games, where I start thinking in terms of how I think actors would play certain scenarios instead of exploiting opportunities the game presents. This comes down to my use of these games as a learning experience rather than a pure game. Check out my US Army Mad Scientist Piece “Would You Like to Play a Game” to better understand my reasons.

When all was said and done, The Allies won a substantive victory. Key lessons learned again included the lethality of the modern fight and an understanding that the side that can best converge multi-domain capabilities will generally prevail. This was blatantly clear with the fighting in the Punjab. Other key lessons included the importance of maneuver, particularly in the crazy terrain of Kashmir, and the value of operational flexibility and troop quality, which was the hallmark of US-UK-Australian-French operations in the mountains.

So we started with Kipling and I guess we’ll end with him…“If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster And treat those two imposters just the same.” The Allies met with both and were able to heed Kipling’s advice, which in the end explains their success.

I have now played through all of the Next War games. Thanks for following along. I appreciate the new friends that I have made along the way and all the great insight you have provided to me.

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Previous Articles:

“We’re Moving Through Kashmir”: Playing Next War India-Pakistan (Part 1)

“We’re Moving Through Kashmir”: Playing Next War India-Pakistan (Part 2)

“We’re Moving Through Kashmir”: Playing Next War India-Pakistan (Part 3)

All Along The Demilitarized Zone: Playing Next War: Korea Series

China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam Series

A Hop, Skip, and an Amphibious Assault — Playing Next War: Taiwan Series

Poland is Not Yet Lost: Playing Next War: Poland Series