Ian M. Sullivan is the Special Advisor for Analysis and ISR at the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

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Game Turn 7

Next War: India-Pakistan, Game Turn 7. The weather cleared this turn and the Allies held the initiative. The Allies began the turn by turning loose its remaining SOF against the Chinese in Kashmir. A raid on the Headquarters of the 43rd Airborne Division was unsuccessful, but a second SOF team was able to target it for further strikes. The most pressing target for the Allies was the S-300 battalion deployed to Kargil, and a SOF raid damaged it.

The air superiority phase went the Allies’ way, although losses were very light. The reason was that the Chinese Strategic Support Force prevailed in the cyber fight, allowing the outnumbered PLAAF and PAF to withdraw forces to fight another day. The Allies retained air superiority, but neither side suffered losses in the air.

It was a much reduced strike phase, but Pakistan and China seemed to get the better of it. Pakistan launched a Hatf strike against the USMC III MEF Headquarters, and inflicted light damage. More serious were the effects generated by a series of Chinese cruise missile strikes. They managed to destroy an Indian airbase and damage two more (all in the ROI holding box), which resulted in serious collateral damage; squadrons of IAF Tejas, MiG-21, and Jaguar, as well as a squadron of USAF Strike Eagles were wrecked. The Allies converged TLAM and raids by Strike Eagles against the S-300 at Kargil and were able to eliminate it. Tactical strikes by more F-15E, F-16Ds, and AH-64 successfully damaged the Headquarters of the Chinese 43rd Airborne Division and the 127th Airborne Brigade. USAF B-1Bs and F-15Es also struck airbases in China, destroying one and damaging another, but causing no further damage.

The pace of the Allied offensive slowed a bit this turn, as they did more maneuvering than actual fighting. In the western Punjab, the Indian I and X Corps struck at Pakistani-held Sri Ganganagar. Supported by IAF Apaches and Mirage, the Indians hurled more than three divisions of combat power at the city, which completely overwhelmed its defenders, the Pakistani 40th Division. The Indians reclaimed their city, which was the last major urban area still in Pakistani hands.

Additionally, the III MEF pressed northward. Sweeping aside Pakistani border defenses, they crossed the Sutlej and occupied the Pakistani town of Haveli, where they captured a Pakistani supply depot.

There was no fighting on the Amritsar-Lahore front, but the Indians clearly were on the move. The redoubtable 15th Division crossed the border into Pakistan and advanced to the outskirts of Lahore, securing the southeastern bank of an irrigation canal off the Ravi River. To the east, the Indian II Corps threw a bridge over the Ravi and moved three-plus divisions across it. This almost cut off Pakistani forces trying to hold the seam between the Punjab and Jammu. The newly arrived Indian XII Corps wheeled to the west, crossing the Sutlej River, and aiming for the Pakistani city of Kasur. Unless blocked, they will have a clean approach north to Lahore.

With an opportunity created by the success in the Punjab, the Indian X Corps finally launched its own attack to the west. Three Divisions fought to separate battles for the fortified city of Sialkot, and were able to force back the Pakistani defenders. The Indians were not able to clear the city, however, and still are engaged in difficult mopping up operations.

The American also were very busy in Kashmir. In two separate battles, the 10th Mountain Division, in concert with 3-82 and the 173rd Airborne, launched attacks against the Chinese airborne brigades occupying the eastern bank of the Jhelum. Benefitting from significant support from Apaches, which now seem more plentiful than mountain birds in Kashmir, as well as tactical air support and cyber, the Americans destroyed two Chinese brigades, and advanced across the river. With these losses, the Chinese 43rd and 44th Airborne Brigades now are effectively eliminated.

The Pakistanis and Chinese could do little but attempt to reform their lines. The Pakistanis shifted the powerful 26th Mechanized Division to the west, where it holds the city of Okara. They now have a patchwork defense of two divisions out in western Punjab. The Pakistanis also decided to fall back, both from the fighting in Sialkot and from a forward defense at Narowal, lest they get cut off. They are trying to anchor a new line on Lahore facing northeast along the Lahore-Gujarat highway.

In Jammu, the X Corps continues to press south, and fought an inconclusive battle with the Indian XVI Corps, which is holding the only road south in force. The Pakistanis could not force the Indians back, but they did destroy the Indian 16th Armored Brigade.

The Chinese have few options in Kashmir because they are essentially road bound. Lead elements of the 47th Group Army are now facing the American 10th Mountain, but they lack the combat power to effectively take them on. Similarly, the the 45th Airborne Division lacked the combat power to strike at Srinagar, which is now held by the 7th Australian Brigade.

Lessons Learned: An Operational Pause. The Allies had an interesting turn. They did a great deal, but earned very few victory points. They have completely broke open the western Punjab. The Indian I Corps has advanced into Pakistan there, and now have three divisions along the Sutlej. The problem they face, however, is that they are on the extreme end of their logistics tail, and cannot advance much farther. III MEF is across the Sutlej and has mopped up some light Pakistani defenses, but it lacks the combat power to press against the Pakistani forces to its front.

The Indians appear to be in the process of conducting a Cannae-like double envelopment of Lahore, which now faces a real threat. Most of the Pakistani XII Corps is positioned to hold the metroplex, but they will be terribly outnumbered. By falling back from Jammu, the Pakistanis are trying to place a break on the Indian right wheel moving toward Lahore, but the position is not set, and a gap exists at the town of Kamoki for the Indian II Corps to exploit.

In Jammu, the Pakistani X Corps can still make a significant difference. It still has two options: continue south or shift west to strike into the Punjab. It likely needs to win one more fight against the Indian XVI Corps before it can truly decide which way to move.

Kashmir is turning into a disaster for the Chinese. Because they lack specialized mountain troops, they are road bound. They simply cannot maneuver into a favorable position, and are steadily being whittled down by the Allies. They were, however, able to replace the destroyed S-300 at Kargil with a fresh one. The most important thing the Allies did in Kashmir was to force the Jhelum and free up the 10th Mountain. No longer hemmed in by the river or Wular Lake, the 10th can now advance into the mountains where they can outmaneuver the Chinese.

This turn represented something of an intermission between acts. The Pakistanis actually out scored the Allies in victory points 11-10, largely on the strength of the amazing collateral damage results against Allied air power from Chinese cruise missile strikes. The Allies lost the initiative, and the next turn will be contested. But with the chance to move first, the next turn promises to be a big one for the Allies.

Game Turn 8

Next War: India-Pakistan, Game Turn 8. The initiative was contested and the weather was overcast to start turn 8. With both sides having enough aircraft available for the largest fight for air superiority yet, it appeared that we were in for a tough fight. Instead, it was an Allied whitewash. Neither side was able to gain an edge with cyber forces, so we had a straight up fight, and Allied fifth generation aircraft dominated the skies. In three straight engagements, two squadrons of USN F-35Cs and one of USMC F-35Bs downed three PLAAF J-11 Flankers, while an IAF Rafale splashed a PLAAF Su-30 Flanker, all for no losses. The Allies retained air superiority.

The SOF phase was fairly uneventful. US SOF failed to damage the enemy IADS, but did target the Chinese S-300 at Kargil. Chinese SOF were able to slightly damage the Indian SAM network. The Pakistanis fired one Hatf strike at the Indian XVI Corps Headquarters in Jammu and obliterated it. Chinese cruise missiles also scored against Indian airbases (in the ROI holding box), destroying one and damaging another. These strikes also wrecked a Jaguar squadron on the ground. 

The Allies conducted multiple air strikes against Chinese units in Kashmir, but were relatively unsuccessful in the face of the Chinese S-300 defenses. The most successful strike was made by a Strike Eagle squadron, which destroyed the headquarters of the 45th Airborne Division at Baltal. US B-52 heavy bomber strikes hit a Chinese mobile supply depot very hard, but a B-2 strike failed to damage the S-300. A major failure occurred when a separate B-52 squadron was intercepted and downed by PLAAF J-20.

On the ground, the Allies moved first and they drove deeper into Pakistan. In Western Punjab, the Indian I Corps’ 33rd Armored Division crossed the Sutlej River, and is now on the outskirts of the Pakistani city of Pakpattan. The I Corps Headquarters threw another bridge across the Sutlej and is preparing to cross more formations. The USMC III MEF shifted east and occupied the town of Kanganpur. They passed lines with the Indian X Corps, which moved two brigades as far north as the city of Okara, which is held in force by the powerful Pakistani 26th Mechanized Division.

The fighting around Lahore became fierce. The Indian XII Corps wheeled left of the metroplex, occupied the city of Kasur, and then moved to the suburbs of Lahore with three brigades. These units, in conjunction with the 15th Division, attacked into the Lahore suburbs, crushed its defenders (the Pakistani 12th Armored Brigade), and occupied the Lahore suburban area. To the east of the city, the Indian II Corps crashed through the Kamoki Gap with the 22nd Division and 14th Armored Brigade, and attacked the city of Shahdara, which is Lahore’s northern suburb. This force cleared the Pakistani defenders and occupied the city. As a final move, the Indian 1st Armored Division moved east and cleared and occupied the city of Narowal. Lahore is now invested on three sides, with only the Okara-Lahore highway open as an avenue of supply (or escape.)

The Indian X Corps continued its westward push from Jammu, but cannot move too far with the Pakistani X Corps still advancing south. They also remain locked in clearing operations in Sialkot, which stubbornly continues to resist. The remnants of the Indian XVI Corps continues to screen the Pakistani X Corps, and is holding the Chenab River crossing opposite Jammu City.

The Allies launched a swirling series of attacks in Kashmir, which converged multi-domain capabilities up and down the valley. Facing a threat from the Pakistani 12th Division, four US BCTs — 1-101, 2-101, 3-101, and 2-82 — launched a heavy attack to the west. Supported by cyber, two squadrons of Apaches, and one of USN Super Hornets, the Americans roughed up the Pakistani division and forced it to retreat. Advancing along the track east of Wular Lake, the US 3-82, the 173rd Airborne Brigade, and the French 13th Demi-Brigade of the Foreign Legion, backed by the entire 10th Mountain Division, struck the lead elements of the PLA 47th Group Army. This attack also received support in the form of French cyber, two squadrons of Apaches, and USAF Vipers, which damaged the PLA 55th Motorized Brigade and forced them to retreat. 

Advancing through the mountains east of Srinagar, the Indian 6th Mountain Division outflanked the Chinese 45th Airborne Division brigades holding the critical Kargil road and struck directly at the Chinese Division’s Headquarters, located at Baltal. Supported by Mirage fighter-bombers, the Indian mountain troops destroyed it, and encircled the Chinese airborne. Two brigades of the Australian 1st Division in Srinagar attacked the three brigades of Chinese paratroopers holding the Kargil road, although the attack was inconclusive. In a bold move, the Allies attempted an air assault against Kargil. This was risky in the face of the S-300s the Chinese had in the town, but the Allies judged the risk was worth the reward to knock out those deadly SAMs. Moving from Jalandhar, the UK 16th Airmobile Brigade and the French 2nd Marine Battalion planned to land on the road between Baltal and Kargil. Only the 16th made it, as the French Marines were lost in the air to the Chinese SAMs. Nevertheless, the British 16th Brigade was enough to take Kargil, destroying the S-300s and a squadron of PLAAF Z-10 attack helicopters.

With their position crumbling, the Chinese attempted to withdraw the 47th Group Army toward Islamabad. This move succeeded, although a concurrent attempt to withdraw the Chinese airborne by helicopter was less successful. They were able to evacuate two brigades from the 45th Airborne to Abbotabad, but one brigade—the 134th—was forced back by Patriot SAMs. It is now completely cut off, and attempts to supply it by air failed.

With the front collapsing in the Punjab, the Pakistanis also pulled back the XI Corps, which was strung out on the mountain roads toward Baramula. They broke contact with the Americans, and also are falling back to Islamabad.

In Jammu, the Pakistani X Corps began to shift west toward the Indian right wing threatening Lahore, but it still has a ways to go. The Pakistanis XXX and XXXI Corps also moved further west to threaten the Indian II Corps, and conducted Pakistan’s only attack of the turn, converging a division and two brigades against the Indian 14th Division, which had occupied the Pakistani town of Kamoki. In spite of air support from Jaguar strike aircraft, the Pakistanis battered the 14th and reclaimed the town.

Lessons Learned: “We fight to win and win with a knockout because there are no runners up in war.” Indian Gen J.J. Singh. Things went well for the Allies, starting with a stunning success in the air. The victories by the the USN and USMC F-35s over Chinese Flankers was an exclamation point that set the tone for the turn. 

The Indians in the Punjab were unstoppable. They fought for five cities, and cleared three of them, including the southern suburb of Lahore. Three Indian Corps have all but closed a ring around Pakistan’s largest city. The Indians still face Pakistani formations moving out of Jammu, but it is unclear if they are enough to stop the Indian offensive. The threat to Lahore has to be making the Pakistani National Command Authority start thinking about nuclear release. India’s enduring problem, however, will be supply. Its lead formations are operating about as far north as they can on their logistical tail.

The Chinese and Pakistani offensive into Kashmir ended in sudden crushing failure, as Allied forces, led by the Americans, were able to maneuver far more effectively in the rough terrain than their enemies. Also, their organic attack helicopters made up for a lack of heavy forces, even in the face of the Chinese S-300s. The key fight was waged by the Americans and French east of Wular Lake, and the coup-de-Grace was the Anglo-French air assault against Kargil. Although it cost the Allies a French Marine battalion, it was worth it to eliminate the S-300 threat.

The Allies ran up the victory points in turn 8 and reclaimed the initiative. This will allow them to complete the encirclement of Lahore and perhaps force the Pakistanis to contemplate surrender. Additionally, the Allied Forces in Kashmir are now free to go on the offensive toward Islamabad and further punish the PLA 47th Group Army. It also is likely that the Chinese 134th Airborne Brigade will be isolated, and may face surrender. The next turn could be decisive.

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Previous Articles from Ian Sullivan:

“We’re Moving Through Kashmir”: Playing Next War India-Pakistan (Part 1)

“We’re Moving Through Kashmir”: Playing Next War India-Pakistan (Part 2)

“We’re Moving Through Kashmir”: Playing Next War India-Pakistan (Part 3)

All Along The Demilitarized Zone: Playing Next War: Korea Series

China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam Series

A Hop, Skip, and an Amphibious Assault — Playing Next War: Taiwan Series

Poland is Not Yet Lost: Playing Next War: Poland Series