Ian M. Sullivan is the Special Advisor for Analysis and ISR at the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

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Game Turn 5

Next War: India-Pakistan, Game Turn 5. It was another clear weather turn, but the Allies held the initiative and they played it for all it was worth. Getting to use their SOF early, US Special Forces successfully raided the enemy’s IADS, damaging both their radars and SAMs. These attacks were augmented by a successful US cyber attack, which further degraded Pakistani radars. They also conducted targeting missions against two Pakistani headquarters; II Corps and I Corps.

The first USAF and USMC fighters entered the fray, and they made a real difference. Although enemy losses were light, they did lose two squadrons of fighters. A PLAAF Fifth Generation J-31 squadron was lost to USAF Raptors and a PAF F-7 squadron fell to IAF Flankers. Four squadrons were aborted, however, and with added numbers aloft, the Allies claimed air superiority.

The strike phase was more limited this turn, namely because India and the US fired so many missiles last turn. Still, with US SOF targeting it, an Indian Prithvi strike obliterated the Pakistani I Corps Headquarters, while US TLAM destroyed the repaired airbases at Rawalpindi and Sarghoda. USN Super Hornets struck the II Corps Headquarters, severely damaging it. Chinese SOF also provided targeting reconnaissance, which enabled Pakistani Hatf strikes against the Airbase at Srinagar. This target was then finished off by a strike from PLAAF Su-30.

With the initiative in hand, the Allied forces struck like a thunderbolt across the entire front. On the far left, the USMC III MEF surged across the Sutlej irrigation channel toward Abohar, and attacked the Pakistani 8th Armored Brigade. Supported by cyber forces and AH-1Z, the Marines destroyed the enemy brigade, although they lost the 2/4 Marines in the attack. A separate attack by the Indian X Corps, supported by IAF Apaches and Mirages, struck out of the city and destroyed the Pakistani 14th Division.

The newly arrived Indian II Corps also surged across the Sutlej and engaged Pakistani units around Amritsar. On their left, elements of the XI Corps also struck, and in some of the fiercest fighting yet, destroyed two Pakistani armored brigades and another infantry brigade. This attack immediately relieved pressure on Amritsar, and its redoubtable defenders, the 15th Division. The II Corps’ 14th Armored Brigade advanced all the way to the Indian side of the Ravi River, and reoccupied the town of Dera Baba-Nanak, which had fallen to the Pakistanis on turn 1.

Little happened in Jammu, as neither side could position forces to conduct a favorable attack, although two large Pakistani columns, consisting of two-plus corps are converging on the Indian defenders, who nevertheless, occupy strong defensive terrain.

The fighting also intensified in Kashmir, as the Allies landed the US 82nd Airborne Division and the 173rd Airborne Brigade just outside Baramula to strike at the Chinese airhead north of the city and also on the opposite bank of the Jhelum to cut off the Chinese. Two separate attacks, which involved cyber support from both sides and air support from USN Rhinos and PLAAF Flankers, resulted in a hard fought US victory. The Chinese 128th Airborne brigade was destroyed, while the 44th Airborne Division’s headquarters was damaged. The US 1-82 and 173rd also suffered severe losses, but the attack compelled the Chinese to withdraw from Baramula, lest they be isolated.

Just to the south, the Indians launched two separate attacks against the FCNA Corps. These attacks, supported by Jaguars, cleared the south bank of the Jhelum and resulted in the destruction of two Pakistani Mountain Brigades. The Indians lost the 121st Mountain Brigade in the fight.

Reeling from this attack, the Pakistanis and Chinese desperately tried to hold on and prevent a breakthrough. In spite of the suddenness of the Marine-X Corps attack, the Pakistanis were able to reposition a division in occupied Sri Ganganagar, while the powerful 1st Armored Division fought a spirited meeting engagement with the Indian 24th Division, which advanced to the Sutlej crossing. Supported by Mirage fighter-bombers, the 1st Armored destroyed their Indian opponent.

After taking a big punch around Amritsar, the Pakistanis suddenly faced the possibility that India could advance on Lahore. Fortunately, the lead elements of the XII Corps arrived, and with elements of the V Corps, struck the Indian 7th Division west of Amritsar, destroying it.

In Kashmir, the remnants of the FCNA Corps passed lines with the Chinese, and now occupy Baramula, but face a real threat from the US Airborne forces. The Chinese Airborne withdrew to secure the Jhelum and to link up with advance elements of the 47th Group Army, which just arrived in Kashmir. The PLA also landed the 45th Airborne Division along the Kargil-Srinagar road, although its headquarters was damaged during the air assault by Indian air defenses. The 45th secured Baltal and Kargil, including its key air field, but these units are in a precarious position, and are cut off from supply.

With multiple airborne and air assaults taking place this turn, supply became an issue. The US was able to conduct emergency supply to its paratroopers, but the Chinese HQ of the 45th Division is out of supply.

Lessons Learned: Attack!!! The Allies wasted no time in taking the fight to the enemy. With the initiative in hand, they launched massive offensives in the Punjab and in Kashmir. The Pakistani II Corps overextended itself, and gave the Marines a chance to eliminate a vulnerable armored brigade. This led to an Indian attack out of Abohar, which compelled the Pakistanis to withdraw from the city. With open terrain and a Corps that has been roughly handled, the Pakistanis are now left trying to screen their own border and hold out in occupied Sri Ganganagar.

The fight for Amritsar was massive, involving two large Indian Corps and three Pakistani Corps, two of which already were understrength from previous fighting. It is not over yet, but likely now will range between Amritsar and Lahore. This likely will be a fierce fight.

The Pakistanis will now have to decide whether it wishes to fight for Jammu, or divert forces to the central Punjab and Kashmir. A success in Jammu could allow them to rehab the initiative, but they will have to overcome stout Indian defenses. And it will not mean anything if their positions in the Central Punjab collapse.

Kashmir was a free-for-all for light forces, but the Allies seem to have gained some momentum this turn. The FCNA Corps is all but fought out, but the Chinese have gained strength, and a fresh Pakistani force—the XI Corps—is arriving. So too is the US 10th Mountain Division, which should enter the Kashmir Valley next turn. 

The Allies continue to receive fresh formations, including the Indian I Corps and US 101st Air Assault Division. The Allies made the Pakistanis and Chinese suffer, destroying a division and six brigades last turn. They likely will continue to pound away next turn, as they still retain the initiative, and will look for chances to break through, with the best chance seeming to be in the Punjab.

Game Turn 6

Next War: India-Pakistan, Game Turn 6. The weather this turn was overcast, and the Allies retained the initiative. They struck early with their SOF forces, but had little success. Allied SOF was unable to damage the enemy IADS, although they did successfully target the headquarters of the two PLAAF Airborne Divisions. Chinese SOF was more successful in raiding the Indian IADS, causing light damage to the radar detection network.

The air-to-air fight went the Allies’ way. USN F-35C destroyed a Chinese J-31 squadron, while IAF Flankers downed a PLAAF J-10. However, a PLAAF J-10 downed a USAF Viper. In spite of this loss, the Allies retained air superiority, which provided them an opportunity to transition a significant portion of their fighters to air-to surface strike, in addition to close air support.

The strike phase seems to be petering out a bit, namely because India and Pakistan are now Winchester on ballistic missiles. Both sides got one last strike in, with an Indian Prithvi destroying the Pakistani II Corps Headquarters and a Pakistani Hatf launched at the USMC III MEF Headquarters, but causing no damage. The Marines later were visited by PLAAF H-6 Badgers, which caused light damage. The US dedicated several TLAM strikes to Chinese airbases, and damaged one. This base was finished off by a strike from B-2 bombers from Guam, which managed to penetrate the S-300 SAMs guarding the China Holding Box. The Chinese responded with a barrage of cruise missiles, destroying airbases at Jalandhar, Pathankot, and damaging one in the ROI holding box. The IAF lost squadrons of Tejas and Fishbed on the ground to these strikes.

US strike aircraft then ranged across the battlespace, heavily damaging the headquarters of the PLAAF 45th Airborne Division, and in concert with Indian Mirage, pounded Pakistani maneuver units outside Amritsar. This represents a new phase in the conflict, as the Allies now have enough air power available to dedicate to these missions.

The Allies continued to press the Pakistanis across the Punjab, and against the Pakistanis and Chinese in Kashmir. Starting in the West, the III MEF converged to attack the already battered Pakistani 1st Armored Division. Attacking across an irrigation channel, and supported by Cyber, AH-1Z, and USN Rhinos, the Marines eliminated this threat and advanced to the Pakistani border.

The heaviest fighting occurred around Amritsar, and the battle largely went India’s way. The Indian II Corps led the advance, attacking the Pakistani 6th Armored Division and 17th Division, just northeast and north of Amritsar, respectively. Both these formation already were struck by US tactical air, and the II Corps was able to spread out and then converge for this fight. Supported by Indian tactical air and attack helicopters, both attacks were very successful, leaving both Pakistani divisions smoking wrecks. 

Just to the west, the Indian XI Corps also attacked, although it was less successful than its II Corps comrades. Attacking out of Amritsar, the Indian 15th and 19th Divisions attacked the battered Pakistani 11th Division. The fight was intense, with the Indians losing the 19th and the Pakistanis the 11th. This slugfest was an operational success, however, as it completely broke Pakistan’s investment of Amritsar.

Fighting in Kashmir also was intense. The US airborne formations and the 10th Mountain Division, which finally completed its overland transit to Kashmir, struck at Baramula, which was defended by the remnants of the Pakistani FCNA Corps. Heavily supported by attack helicopters, cyber, and tactical air, the US forces finally destroyed the Pakistani FCNA Corps and recaptured the city. Recognizing the danger posed by the Pakistani XI Corps, which is attacking southeast out of Pakistan, the US commander landed the 101st Air Assault Division northwest of Baramula to protect the paratroopers’ flank.

Around Srinagar, the remains of a hodgepodge of Indian formations launched an attack on the Chinese Airborne Divisions on the east bank of the Jhelum. This fight was fierce but inconclusive, with the Indians losing a mountain brigade and the Chinese an airborne brigade.

The Pakistanis faced a growing crisis around Amritsar. Having lost two Corps trying to take the city, they have found themselves drastically outnumbered by their Indian enemy. Left with no choice. The Pakistanis moved most of its XII Corps to the Lahore area in an attempt to hold Pakistani’s largest city. They also are withdrawing elements of two Corps—XXX and XXXI—from Jammu to try to hold a defensive line anchored on the Ravi River. They left one division to try to hold Sri Ganganagar, which they still control, but have only one other division in reserve to hold the Western Punjab.

The Pakistani X Corps, which had only been lightly engaged thus far in Jammu, finally was able to deploy to attack the Indians at Sunderbani. This attack, supported by Mirage fighter-bombers, roughed up the Indian 16th Armored Brigade. The Pakistanis took the town, as well as an Indian supply depot that was established in the town.

In Kashmir, the Chinese launched two desperate attacks to open the road to Kargil. Elements of three Airborne Divisions launched two attacks against the Indian 6th Mountain Division, finally forcing it back to Srinagar. This opened the road to Kargil, which became essential for the Chinese, who were able to move two squadrons of attack helicopters and an S-300 SAM battalion to the airfield and open a tenuous LOC to itsforces in Kargil . The Pakistani XI Corps tried to break into India, but were stopped cold at the border by the Screaming Eagles, who hold a strong fortified position. Like the Chinese, the Americans also moved more attack helicopters to the front, and deployed Patriot to defend Baramula.

Lessons Learned: Breakthrough. The Indian offensive in the Punjab picked up steam, and the hard fighting they undertook around Amritsar finally paid off. The Pakistanis were forced back to Lahore, and appear to lack enough combat power to hold any semblance of a strong defensive line. The Indian II Corps, which is largely responsible for relieving Amritsar, now will have the chance to invade Pakistani territory. They have two options, a direct thrust to Lahore, or a wheel to the left to avoid attacking over irrigation channels off the Ravi. The Indians, and the US Marines, also have the opportunities farther west. They can try to recapture Sri Ganganagar or push on into Pakistan.

The Pakistani X Corps is still offensive, and can try to thrust deeper into Jammu, or even breach into the Punjab to relieve pressure on Lahore. It faces a tough slog, however, as the Indians still have the XVI Corps screening its advance.

Kashmir remains contested. The Allies had a victory at Baramula, but still face an entire Pakistani Corps, a PLA Group Army, and Chinese airborne, whose main problem is an inability to converge combat power along the limited road network in the region. The PLA will need to get back across the Jhelum if they wish to deploy the backed up 47th Group Army for offensive operations. 

Reinforcements continue to arrive. The Australian 1st Division is moving toward Kashmir, along with some French light forces, the UK 16th Airmobile Brigade also is in theater, along with British and Canadian fighters. For India, a new formation, XII Corps, arrived from the south and will provide even more combat power to surge into the Punjab. For its part, China received more air power, but it comes nowhere close to matching what the Allies can now deploy. Pakistan’s situation is not yet precarious, but it is increasingly becoming difficult.

Next Time: Game Turns 7-8

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Previous Articles from Ian Sullivan:

“We’re Moving Through Kashmir”: Playing Next War India-Pakistan (Part 1)

“We’re Moving Through Kashmir”: Playing Next War India-Pakistan (Part 2)

All Along The Demilitarized Zone: Playing Next War: Korea Series

China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam Series

A Hop, Skip, and an Amphibious Assault — Playing Next War: Taiwan Series

Poland is Not Yet Lost: Playing Next War: Poland Series