Ian M. Sullivan is the Special Advisor for Analysis and ISR at the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

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Game Turn 3

Next War: India-Pakistan, Game Turn 3. It was another clear weather turn, and the initiative was still contested. The game picked up pace with the addition of more Chinese units and the first US units to reach the fight. The result was more action across all domains.

The first action was in the air, and it was much closer than last turn. With Indian reinforcements—including very capable Su-30s—and USN F-35Cs contesting the air, the Allies were able to more effectively battle for air superiority. Where last turn the PAF/PLAAF seized air supremacy, this turn ended with a contested air picture. In the air, the PAF lost two squadrons of F-7 (downed by USN F-35Cs and Flankers).

The strike phase was even more eventful, as US SOF, Naval strike fighters, and cruise missiles entered the fray. Pakistani ballistic missiles and SOF attempted to target Indian headquarters and airbases, damaging several. The most significant strikes included a Hatf strike that wrecked a Tejas squadron on the ground. Additionally, Chinese SOF struck an airfield south of Srinagar, destroying a Rudra attack helicopter squadron. Allied strikes were equally ferocious, with Indian Prithvis, US TLAM and SOF destroying two airbases and an airfield, as well as a squadron of PAF Mirages on the ground. Pakistani Corps headquarters also were hit hard, with II Corps and XXX Corps suffering the most damage at the hands of USN Rhinos.

The Pakistanis continued to press the Indian forward defenses, and this time had several key successes. The most successful attack occurred out in the western Punjab, where II Corps converged on Sri Ganganagar. Having shifted the 1st Armored Division to the attack, and dedicating cyber attacks and F-16s to the fight, the Pakistanis finally broke the Indian defenses, although the the F-16s were bounced by Flankers and damaged. The Indian 6th Armored Brigade was destroyed in the fight, and the 24th Division was forced back. The Pakistanis were able to occupy and clear the city by the end of the turn, making Sri Ganganagar the first Indian city to fall.

The I Corps completed its move across the Ravi, and closed on Amritsar. Before moving toward the metropolitan area, elements of I Corps fought a meeting engagement with the Indian 55th Mechanized Division, destroying it. I Corps now has two-plus divisions on the outskirts of Amritsar to link up with the IV Corps, and likely will strike at the metroplex next turn. Another I Corps division advanced toward and occupied the town of Batala, which severed the Amritsar-Pathankot road.

XXX Corps actually fell back from its positions in Jammu to screen Indian forces falling back from the Lahore front. These Indian forces—the XVI Corps—was chased by the Pakistani X Corps, which shifted its whole weight westward away from city of Baramula. With the Pakistani success near Amritsar, and lead Pakistani formations south of that city, all thoughts of an Indian push into Pakistan are gone as the Indians try to stabilize a defensive line. 

In Kashmir, the X Corps shift west opened the door for a Chinese air assault east of Baramula, and more importantly, east of the Jhelum River. The Chinese landed the entire 44th Airborne Division east of the city, and tried to land two more brigades of the 43rd Airborne Division on the west side of the city, but these were chased off by the Indian IADS. Nevertheless, the PLA tried to take the city in a quick attack, and even dedicated cyber forces and Su-30 fighter-bombers to the assault. It was inconclusive, although the defending Indian 19th Division was roughed up in the fight. 

The Pakistani FCNA Corps continued its attack toward Srinagar, and in a Corps attack supported by cyber forces and Mirage fighter-bombers, they waged an inconclusive fight against two Indian mountain brigades north of the city. The Mirages were intercepted by Indian Flankers, and splashed.

The Indians were pressed back, and are struggling to hold the line. Although still trying to hold Amritsar as a bastion, the remainder of the battered XI Corps is falling back to try to hold the Sutlej River. The same is true of the Indian X Corps, which will try to hold the irrigation channels off the Sutlej as a new line. 

The Indians did launch two counterattacks in Kashmir, with the battered 19th Division counterattacking out of Baramula, and crushing the PLAAF 132nd Airborne Brigade. A second attack against the FCNA Corps’ spearhead brigades damaged one Pakistani brigade, but failed to halt the attack.

Lessons Learned: Pressure Mounts. The steady progress of the Pakistani offensive had its first real success—the capture of Sri Ganganagar—and India’s attempts to defend forward seems to be playing into their hands. The Indians will now try to hold Amritsar and Abohar while forming a new line of defense. This will be challenged by the move south of the fresh Pakistani XXXI Corps, which initially was moving to reinforce XXX Corps in Jammu, but now can be shifted toward the Amritsar front. Two additional Pakistani Corps also have arrived, along with another PLAAF Airborne Division. 

Some reinforcements have arrived to support the Indian defense, including the USMC III MEF, the US Army’s 82nd Airborne Division and 173rd Airborne Brigade, and the Indian 6th Mountain Division, but they need to move to the front. Perhaps of more immediate value is the arrival of a second USN carrier and the first USAF and USMC squadrons. 

The conflict may be decided in the next few turns, and all hinges on how dogged India can be in defense of Abohar, Amritsar, and Srinagar in the face of a now fully mobilized Pakistan, supported by newly arriving Chinese forces. US light forces will help, but will require a true multi-domain effort to stem the tide.

Game Turn 4

Next War: India-Pakistan, Game Turn 4. The dry season gives us another clear day, and neither side had the initiative. The fight for air superiority again was close. The PAF/PLAAF put up more squadrons but the Allies put up better quality aircraft and aircrew, including two USN F-35C squadrons and two of IAF Su-30s. However, PLAAF fifth generation J-31 also were available, and combined with a supporting squadron of J-10s, damaged and aborted a USN Lightning. The Allies also scored, downing a PLAAF J-10 and PAF F-7. Despite the swirling air battle, we remained locked into a contested air superiority level.

The SOF and Strike phases were very active. Pakistani Hatf ballistic missiles and Chinese SOF pounded the airbases at Jalandhar, Pathankot, and in deeper India (the ROI Holding Box). These strikes damaged the former and destroyed the latter two, along with a squadron of Su-30 and one of MiG-27 on the ground. The Allied riposte was even more successful. First, US TLAM struck airbases across Pakistan, destroying two and damaging two more. A squadron of PAF F-16s were destroyed in these strikes. Indian Prithvi missiles also found success, utterly destroying the headquarters of the Pakistani XXX Corps and the 47th Rocket Brigade. Allied EF-18G Growlers targeted the Pakistani IADS and damaged some SAMs, but one squadron of Growlers was lost in this Wild Weasel mission. US SOF damaged the adversaries’ IADS and raided the headquarters of the PLAAF 44th Airborne Division. Additionally, US cyber attacks degraded the enemy IADS. More importantly, another US SOF unit provided targeting support on this high value target. This effort more than paid off, as USAF B-2 Spirit bombers flying out of Guam destroyed the Chinese headquarters in a long range air strike.

The Pakistanis continued their offensive but had only limited success. II Corps’ efforts to storm Abohar failed. The joint IV Corps and I Corps attack on Amritsar also had little success, in spite of heavy support from Chinese cyber forces and by PAF F-16s. Although the Indian 23rd Armored Brigade was damaged in the fighting, the city held. Additionally, the F-16s were intercepted and destroyed by IAF Flankers.

To the east, the Pakistani 37th Division advanced along the Amritsar-Pathankot road, occupied the town of Gurdaspur, and crossed the intact bridge across the Sutlej into the Pathankot airbase and nuclear site. 

Pakistani reinforcements from the XXXI Corps arrived in Jammu, and now, with the remnants of XXX Corps in tow, are angling toward the cities of Jammu and Trikuta Nagar. The X Corps advance, which is strung out along one secondary road, was slowed by an Indian rearguard division holding the town of Sunderbani and its all-important supply depot, and will need to converge its forces before attempting to push through. 

In Kashmir, the Chinese landed a second airborne division east of Baramula, and supported by cyber formations and Su-30 Flankers, successfully took the city, destroying the Indian 19th Division in the process. This battle was critical, as it opened a crossing over the Jhelum River, which should open the route for the newly arrived Pakistani XI Corps to move into the Kashmir Valley. The Chinese successfully cleared the city by the end of the turn.

The FCNA Corps also was heavily engaged around Srinagar, fighting two actions against the Indian XIV Corps and XV Corps. Although one attack successfully eliminated the two Indian mountain brigades holding the approaches to Srinagar, a second was less successful at targeting the HQ of the XV Corps. The FCNA Corps paid heavily, losing a brigade in these attacks.

The Indians moved quickly to respond to the Pakistani advance, with a desperate focus on sealing the breach caused by the Pakistani 37th Brigade’s crossing of the Sutlej. The Indians moved elements of its IX Corps to Pathankot to coordinate an eastward attack by the XI Corps 9th Division. Supported by US cyber forces, the guns of the 42nd Artillery Brigade, an LCH attack helicopter squadron, and Jaguar strike fighters, the Indian attack was highly successful, and the 9th Division secured the nuclear site and the Sutlej crossing.

Recognizing the need to hold the Sutlej line, the Indians withdrew the battered 23rd Armored Brigade from Amritsar before the Pakistanis could completely encircle the city, betting that the remaining defenders can still hold.

In Kashmir, the Indians were able to move the 6th Mountain Division by air to Srinagar, and surged the 121st Mountain Brigade and 50th Airborne Brigade out of the city to attack the lead elements of the FCNA Corps. This meeting engagement was successful, and a second Pakistani mountain brigade was destroyed.

Lessons Learned: Momentum is a Funny Thing…..So the Pakistanis looked like they had a chance to break the Indians this turn. Alas, it was not to be. Abohar, Amritsar, and Srinagar all held, although the Chinese did capture Baramula. 

Although Pakistani reinforcements are arriving at the front and could still help tip the balance in several key fights, the true star of the turn was the Allied SOF, missiles, and strike aircraft. Allied air forces also did well, and Pakistani and Chinese aircraft losses were heavy, losing as many squadrons this turn as they have in the three previous turns. But the destruction meted out by SOF, TLAM, Prithvi, and B-2s was devastating. All told, these elements destroyed two enemy headquarters units, one rocket brigade, a squadron of F-16s on the ground, and damaged/destroyed four Pakistani airbases. Coupled with the losses the Pakistanis suffered on the ground, the successes the Allies had in the strike phases allowed them to seize the initiative for next turn.

And it should matter, as Allied reinforcements are now arriving. III MEF is now ensconced behind the Sutlej irrigation channels, and holds the Allied left. Additionally, the 82nd Airborne arrived at Jalandhar and the 10th Mountain Division is moving into Jammu. The powerful Indian II Corps also is on the map, and could be in position to relieve Amritsar. Additionally, the first USAF and USMC tactical squadrons also are available, with waves more on the way.

The Chinese also have upped the ante, and deployed the 47th Group Army to support operations in Kashmir. They will be needed, as the FCNA Corps may be fought out, although it still could move against unoccupied Kargil.

The battle has entered a new, more dangerous phase, as more formations arrive. The balance of forces is swinging, particularly in the air, and Pakistan may only have a limited time left to prevail.

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Previous Articles from Ian Sullivan:

“We’re Moving Through Kashmir”: Playing Next War India-Pakistan (Part 1)

All Along The Demilitarized Zone: Playing Next War: Korea Series

China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam Series

A Hop, Skip, and an Amphibious Assault — Playing Next War: Taiwan Series

Poland is Not Yet Lost: Playing Next War: Poland Series