Ian M. Sullivan is the Special Advisor for Analysis and ISR at the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

---

Well, it has taken a while, but I was able to get a copy of Next War: India-Pakistan. (I also had to wait for my wife to finish a craft project before I could get the table back.) I just completed the initial set up. I will be playing the Border War scenario, which postulates a Pakistani invasion of the Punjab, Jammu, and Kashmir. The Pakistanis essentially gained strategic surprise, and likely will have a few turns to drive an offensive into India. The game states that Pakistan is trying to secure the headwaters of the major rivers that provide for its agriculture, as well as to perhaps gain space in the Lahore area. China will intervene fully on Pakistan’s side, perhaps to gain in the Akashi-Chin area, but really to deal a blow to India’s ambition. The US and Commonwealth, concerned with China’s rise, are intervening to defend India. In terms of other optional rules, I’ve swapped out USN Super Hornets and USMC Harriers for F-35s, Indian MiG-21s for Rafales, and added fifth Generation fighters for the PLAAF. I will be using cyber rules, as well as the optional S-300/Patriot rules from Supplements 1 and 2, respectively. 

This should be an interesting game. It is smaller in scale than the others I have played, and of course there is no naval play in this one. I am intrigued to see how the varied terrain plays out, from the major rivers and plains of the Punjab through a conflict on the roof of the world in Kashmir.

Well, with the setting in mind, I suppose we will get started with a quote from Kipling: “What is the law of the Jungle? Strike first and then give tongue.” So follow along and see if Pakistan’s first strike leads to a settlement in their favor. As for the title of this article, I just could not resist a nod to the Led Zeppelin masterpiece.

Game Turn 1

Next War: India-Pakistan, Game Turn 1. Prior to the conflict, both sides were able to position their forces closer to their borders. Pakistan appears to be aiming three corps at the Punjab, with Amritsar as a key objective. One corps seems to be fixing Indian forces in Jammu, while two others are converging on Kashmir, angling toward Srinagar. For their part, the Indians seem to be positioning for a forward defense behind the rivers and rough terrain, with key cities and urban areas serving as strongpoints.

Prior to the onset of the conflict, Pakistan launched a surprise ballistic missile strike on Indian airbases. Airbases at Jalandhar and Pathankot were destroyed. For its part, India attempted to destroy bridges along the Sutlej and Ravi Rivers to slow a Pakistani advance. They successfully felled bridges by Ferozepur and damaged a bridge east of it. They were unable, however, to collapse a bridge by the town of Fazilka, which proved problematic later on.

The Pakistanis followed this attack with broader missile barrage and a series of SOF strikes, which further damaged Indian installations, as well as the XI Corps Headquarters. These strikes also destroyed two Indian squadrons on the ground; one MiG-21 and another of modern Rafale. Caught flat footed, the Indians attempted to wreck the bridge they damaged earlier with a SOF strike, but could not destroy it. Their counter-strike with missiles damaged Pakistan’s Rawalpindi Airbase and the Lahore-based IV Corps Headquarters.

The fight for the air was a wash, with neither side gaining a true advantage. Although the PAF had two squadrons of Mirages damaged, the air remains contested. Indian MiG-27s were able to finally bring down the damaged bridge east of Ferozepur, denying the Pakistanis an avenue to encircle Amritsar. 

The ground fight began with the Pakistanis attempting to blast brought India’s border defenses. In the western Punjab, the Pakistani II Corps surged across the intact bridge at Fazilka, moving two infantry divisions across the Sutlej, and forcing the Indians back to Abohar. The rest of II Corps advanced south from the Multan area, and made it as far as Sri Ganganagar. 

Pakistan’s IV Corps advanced south from Lahore, hurled back the Indian 55th Mechanized Brigade, and reached the outer environs of Amritsar. They paid a price in blood, though, losing the 10th Division and the 212th Brigade, the latter of which was caught by a counterattack by the Indian 7th Division. 

Advancing northeast toward Jammu, the Pakistani XXX Corps stayed south of the Chenab River, operating between it and the major irrigation’s channel which run through the area. Angling toward the city of Jammu, XXX Corps ran into stout Indian defenses of its IX Corps. The XXX Corps lost the 2nd Armored Brigade and 214th Brigade to gain the border, but it seems to be a fixing force.

Operating between II Corps and XXX Corps is Pakistan’s powerful I Corps. Not until the end of its initial move did it tip its main effort, which was to bridge the Sutlej and help the fight for Amritsar. By the end of the turn, I Corps bridged the river and pushed across the 17th Division and the 11th Armored Brigade, and captured the Indian town of Derra Baba Nak.

In Kashmir, the Pakistani X Corps launched an offensive on two axes; one south from Islamabad and another south of Muzaffarabad. They roughed up elements of the Indian XVI Corps, but in reality, are trying to fix the Indian defenders near the border.

The main effort is the FCNA Corps, whose Mountain brigades converged from two directions to shatter India’s most powerful mountain formation; the 28th Mountain Division. In two major fights, and supported by cyber attacks and PAF F-16s, the FCNA Corps cleared the path to Srinagar, and the Indian XIV Corps is trying to form a defensive line to hold the approaches to this key city.

Lessons Learned: A Different Kind of Fight. Thus far, this game has a slower pace than the others I have played, namely because the combatants are not nearly as capable and have less in the way of assets to deploy. Pakistan’s initial missile strikes were only moderately successful, and its invasion was rather plodding. Still, they have created real opportunities for themselves, out in western Punjab, around Amritsar, and in Kashmir. A lack of sufficient combat aircraft to support ground operations made it difficult for the Pakistanis to have major successes, but they are across the border and hold several Indian cities at risk. They did, however, lose two divisions worth of combat power for relatively modest gains.

For its part, India held the line, but faces several significant threats. It suffered less than the Pakistanis, but the loss of the 28th Mountain Division was a huge loss in Kashmir. They’ll need to transition to a defense of strongpoints to prevent the Pakistanis from surging farther south until their reinforcements arrive. Their main challenge, however, will come in the air, as the first Chinese combat squadrons arrive next turn. India will need to dig in and hold until help arrives.

Game Turn 2

Next War: India-Pakistan, Turn 2. It was a clear weather turn and the initiative was contested. With the PLAAF entering the conflict, the Pakistanis and Chinese dominated the skies. They suffered no losses, and PLAAF J-11 Flankers downed an Indian Fulcrum squadron, while a PAF JF-17 splashed a Tejas squadron. Two more Indian squadrons of Tejas fighters were damaged, and the PAF/PLAAF won air supremacy.

The strike phase was only mildly eventful, with two Indian air bases—Jalandhar and Pathankot—destroyed by Hatf missiles and SOF. The Indians retaliated with a Prithvi strike against Rawalpindi air base, destroying it. With air supremacy, the PLAAF dedicated two Su-30 Flanker squadrons to strike Indian headquarters units, damaging the HQs for the Indian XIV Corps and XVI Corps. Both sides suffered severe losses in terms of their SOF and cyber units, with the Pakistanis losing four SOF teams and the Indians two. Each side is down to only a handful of cyber units.

The Pakistanis continued their general offensive, but the pace was very slow. In the west, the Pakistani II Corps converged an armored division, an armored brigade, and an infantry brigade against the city of Sri Ganganagar, but in spite of heavy cyber support and air support from PAF F-16s, it could not budge the Indian defenders.

While the Pakistani IV Corps fixed the defenders of Amritsar in place, the I Corps continued its attack across the Ravi River, and hurled back an Indian Division. The Indian 7th Division tried to counterattack against the Pakistani IV Corps outside Amritsar, but the attack failed, and the 7th was roughed up by a Pakistani armored brigade. 

In Jammu, the Pakistani X Corps’ western column forced back the Indian XVI Corps, destroying the Indian 25th Division in the process. Recognizing that it could no longer hold the border without being cut off, the Indian XVI Corps withdrew to the south, which will give them an opportunity to join with the IX Corps, and potentially break into Pakistan across the Chenab River.

In Kashmir, the Pakistani offensive continues to gain steam. The FCNA Corps exploded into the Kashmir Valley, and in a fight supported by cyber forces and F-16s, destroyed the Indian 79th Mountain Brigade, and occupied the town of Bandipora.

Lessons Learned: Plodding along. The fight in the air was very one-sided, and the arrival of the PLAAF made a difference. Still, neither side had enough assets to parlay the fight for the air into something that could make a difference on the ground.

The Pakistanis had some successes, but not enough to bust open the Indian lines. The attack out west was highly disappointing, and will compel another attack next turn if Sri Ganganagar is to fall. The IV Corps opposite Lahore was too badly beat up last turn to press for Amritsar, so it fixed the Indians in place, and waits for II Corps to help take the city. 

Pakistan faces great risk as the Indians withdraw from the border in Jammu, with the correlation of forces favoring India for a westward thrust across the Chenab if the Pakistanis cannot reinforce their thinly spread and already battered XXX Corps. 

Pakistan is, however, methodically pressing across Kashmir, and Srinagar is at risk if the Indians cannot find a way to hold on. 

Reinforcements are arriving. The Pakistanis have a new Corps—XXXI Corps—entering the fray, along with some more squadrons of aircraft. The Chinese also received more aircraft, and two PLAAF airborne divisions are ready to deploy to Pakistan. For its part, India received some help in the form of its 50th Airborne Brigade, which it rushed to Srinagar, and some aircraft. And although symbolic, the first USMC formation, the 1/4 Marines and a USN carrier air wing is ready to enter the fray. India can truly use that air wing to help turn he tide in the air.

The fighting next turn should intensify across the front, and the Chinese airborne formations could help tip the balance. Although Pakistan could have a big turn coming up, its center, where Jammu meets the Punjab, could be very brittle and the focus of an Indian counter thrust if the Indian High Command plays its cards right, and perhaps is able to negate PAF/PLAAF air power.

Next Time: Turns 3-4

---

Previous Articles from Ian Sullivan:

All Along The Demilitarized Zone: Playing Next War: Korea Series

China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam Series

A Hop, Skip, and an Amphibious Assault — Playing Next War: Taiwan Series

Poland is Not Yet Lost: Playing Next War: Poland Series