The Significance of Dice Rolling Probability in Hitler’s Reich

After having played about ten games of Hitler’s Reich, I still find it difficult to really categorize this game into a particular niche. I cannot state if it’s a card driven game, for it is a game which has lots of cards to it; but does not fall into the tradition of most CDG’s. I can state that it is a game where many dice are thrown, for it is, in fact, the game during which I have thrown the most dice in my life (and that is saying something!).

Hitler’s Reich is primarily an enjoyable and exciting game for two players: an Axis player who controls Germany and Italy, although the latter is of secondary importance, and the other player who controls the Western Allies (USA and the British Empire) and the Soviets. There are rules and two versions to play it solitaire, which many seem to have great fun with, but being a social person type gamer, I have not played it this way.

The game starts during the Spring of 1941 with Germany at the zenith of its power. The Axis player must decide whether to attack the USSR by means of “Operation Barbarossa, “a powerful attack, enhanced by a “Big Push” in the terminology of the game; or if he attacks first in the Balkans; sets out to conquer Egypt and the Middle East; or move against the stubborn British in their island redoubt. 

Hitler’s Reich allows exploring different grand strategy alternatives for both players; in the Axis case, that player can delay or ignore Barbarossa, employ additional submarine and V-rocket warfare to weaken the Allies ability to resist, take the offensive in the Mediterranean and Middle East….; or in the Allied case, hold the Axis at bay to pave the way for an anticipated landing in northern Europe supported by a Soviet east front offensive. 

With this game a player can maximize strategic and economic war over the military… For me, the strategic warfare is in general excellently simulated; however, the fighting (occupation of a territory and placement of a control marker) has what is to me an excessively random mechanism (see the ROLLING DICE PROBABILITY section at the end of this article which overly penalizes the loser in that conflict in this game is an all or nothing situation.

A positive aspect of the Hitler’s Reich game is that once you open the box, put out the cards, place the markers and start to play, the end of the game (at the end of 1945 at most) could have you spend only two hours, perhaps two and a half hours to three hours maximum in some games we experienced.  This is a game where the deck of Conflict cards disappears quickly in a “tit for tat” manner with very fast and intense turns.

Players experience great tension on what decision to take (strategic warfare or combat for areas on the map) which supports a previous decision (which Conflict card to place face down and any additional support Event cards used in a Conflict), or how to solve the challenge you just made to the other player!

Event Cards

It is the deck of illustrated Event cards which help players get into the spirit of the game, these can influence land and sea battles, called “Conflicts” in Hitler’s Reich, strategic and economic warfare, and political events. There is an exclusive deck of Axis cards, another is an exclusive Allied cards set and then there is a third set of others that can be “bought” and “used” by both sides.

Here I must make a key observation: Hitler’s Reich is a game with a card engine, but they are not in a deck; the Event cards available to play are all in plain sight, well placed around the board to be “bought” through winning a Conflict Action or in an open group that each player has in front of his chair.

This set of cards is the heart of the game in giving players a sense of the history it seeks to depict. The first thing to know is that a player can have in his hand (open to his opponent) a maximum of usually six cards. That’s not many, so it is crucial to choose them well, play them judiciously, and not lose them in unimportant operations; so you have to choose them and use them very carefully. A hand of six “good in combat”, or “Conflict” as the game terms it, such Event cards will indicate the Axis has prepared its army to advance deep into Russia or to oppose a possible Allied “return to Europe” invasion. A “good hand” from available strategic Allied event cards will indicate that the Allies are building their industrial strength, or contributing to weaken the Axis industrial network… which is the Axis hand of Conflict Cards.

To understand the probabilities for a Conflict victory in this game; one should appreciate the cards Hitler’s Reich provides. According to the Rule Book there are four types of Event cards: Reusable, Returnable, Removable and Recyclable Events. However, I like better to sort these cards by their use types during the game and thus they exist as:

1) Combat Event Cards (naval or maritime) that you may use during your turn. These are generally Reusable cards (if you win the match, you have them available in the next turn). As the Axis, here you have cards like Von Rundstedt, Rommel, Stuka and especially Waffen SS, which give great advantages to the Axis player: some are good in attack, others in defense like Von Rundstedt and others that are worth their weight in gold, like the Waffen SS (valid for defense or attack).

On the Allied side the cards T-34’s and Shermans is a great Event card, and both Chuikov and Zuikov are good Soviet cards. The Western Allies have Montgomery and Patton cards for supporting battles; the first for defensive battles, and the second for attacks. Then there are specific Event cards to allow landings, one for the Axis, one for the Allies. They are only one per side so you have to “buy them” (fighting against your opponent) and “use them” in a methodical and planned way. There are also Returnable cards with effects in combats but when using them only once you have to return them to a holding area near the board and “buy them” again through winning a Conflict Action (with the effort and uncertainty that entails), so in principle, it is better to devote your efforts to acquiring Reusable cards that while you win, you indefinitely will get opportunities to repeatably use these cards.

2) Strategic Warfare Cards, which are basically those that increase the hand of your own Conflict cards or decrease that of the enemy. The Wolfpacks and V-Rocket cards are Axis Event cards that will negatively affect the Allies so in the Hitler’s Reich game it will be necessary to take countermeasures to prevent their ill effects from occurring. In this game that translates into preventing the Axis player from “buying” them and thus using them. The Allied player has four Strategic Bombing cards to do the job of putting the Axis to its knees. Then there are cards to increase the hand of Conflict cards for both players titled War Production, and the Allies uniquely has cards called Convoy that increase his hand size. This group of cards when used are discarded except at the End of Year phase at which time each player can “resurrect” one of these previously used and discarded cards for possible reacquisition by a successful Event Conflict). Mostly they are Recyclable Events.  The larger your hand of Conflict cards, the greater your ability to influence the probability for victory when a land or sea conflict occurs. You’ll simply have more cards to choose from.

3) Political Cards: all of them are Removable Events; there are not many of these in Hitler’s Reich and once used they are discarded from the game, among them is the Franco card, which allows the incorporation of Spain into the Axis, for the Allies: Vichy France (to gain French North African Land Areas and some Mediterranean Sea Zones) or exit from the war through winning the Finland and Romania card, or for either player, the entry of Turkey on the side that “gets” that card.

Conflict Cards

In the Event cards section of this piece, I referred to them as being almost the heart of the game, because in Hitler’s Reich there are Conflict card decks that also have a decisive role. There are two decks of these, one for each player, Axis and Allied, (they really are decks!). These cards, like any CDG, create a deck where each player randomly selects their cards to compose a “Hand”. Each deck has two card suits from 1 to 13 value (the strongest is 13 and the worst is 1… but that one, the “Saboteur”, has an interesting special ability, so it’s really the 2 value card which is the worst, although even that card has a good possible use which I’ll later explain).

The 13, 12 and 11 value cards, have a particularity when used in a combat or to gain an Event card (if the player wishes); to reroll 3, 2 or 1 die. Finally, the previously mentioned 1 value “Saboteur” card cancels the value of the enemy’s card making it a “miserable” 1 value card instead. All, with their military rank references cause reminiscence to the classic game of Stratego!

Both players have an additional 10 value card that is the “Double Agent” and that card’s unique ability, to remove the previously mentioned reroll ability of the 11, 12, and 13 value cards, gives more uncertainty and tension to the game. There are 27 cards in total per side.

Normally, a turn allows the player to make an action (try to “buy” a card, make a fight, …), if successful, the player has allowed him to the ability to perform a second action that may be to repeat the previous one or to build a fortress in some area enemy “threatened”; or place a fleet in some maritime  sea zone to add a die should a conflict resolution occur.

These two actions: placing a fortress or a fleet is automatic, i.e. the enemy player cannot oppose this placement, but once this action is done the turn of a player ends. As a corollary of these two appreciations: When placing a fortress or a fleet the player must use one of their Conflict cards, of course you will use the lowest value (e.g. 2,3 or 4 value) and so you take away these cards from your hand that you recycle with a new one, which will surely be higher… you hope.

Consequently, if you take this action of placing a fortress or fleet as a first action, you will have finished your turn and you will not be able to try to buy another Event card either for combat or for strategic warfare that turn… or do any other action. Therefore, this type of action is better done as an earned second action. The same applies to a Reorganize Action.

Reorganize Action: If your hand of Conflict cards seems particularly miserable… it can hopefully be improved by taking a once per year Reorganize Action. That is, you can discard one or more of your Conflict cards and replace them in your hand… take one card less, and no effect on your opponent, take back the same number of cards, your opponent’s Conflict card hand is increased by one.

Rolling Dice Probability in Hitler’s Reich

Normally, when a player decides to “buy” an Event card from the many cards he has available around the game board (each side has its own cards, as well as a separate group of Event cards common for both players) he must resolve a Conflict Action which involves throwing three dice whose result plus the value of the Conflict card that was played face down combines for a total score. The opposing player will have done the same. The player with the highest total score will have obtained the Event card to add it to those available (usually a maximum of six) or for immediate play.

Card suit comes into play only when there’s a tie with each side’s total score. Hitler’s Reich has a fascinating and, to my mind, historically-based solution for this: “German Suit Conflict cards always win ties, Fascist/Italian Suit Conflict cards always lose ties”. Suit-less “Double Agent” cards will always lose a tie they’re involved with.

This is a simple mechanic, but the game’s rather excellent cards are the ones that make this even more interesting. For example, let’s imagine the Allied player wants to expand his hand of Conflict cards (instead of 7 cards he wants to have 8) and he wants to “buy” the “strategic” Event card Convoy, which if acquired provides a hand increase of one. If he also plays the Allied Event card Fleet Carriers, he rolls one more die (that is four) and add the score of all of them together plus the value of the Conflict card that was played. Additionally, If the card you have placed is of value 12, you may also reroll up to two dice. That’s a nice advantage to have, for if you have bad luck and the Axis score was better; there’s the possibility of snatching victory from defeat with an excellent reroll (for example, two sixes: “boxcars!’).

If the Allied player wins because his sum is greater than that of the Axis, he retrieves his Fleet Carrier card to use it in another maritime issue and will immediately play the “Convoy” card to increase his Conflict cards hand from a hand of seven to one of eight cards.

This same mechanic is used in combats; known as Sea or Land Conflict Actions, both players place one of their Conflict cards upside-down (remember that they are worth between 1 and 13 value) reveal them and then throw three dice each; if the attacker attacks a land area with which he borders from more areas than the ones bordering the defender, he throws four dice, and the defender would normally throw three dice, although they have a special defensive bonus to roll four dice when defending their capital – London, Moscow and Berlin – that are added to the value of the played card that are revealed in unison.

However, both players, before making the roll of dice and knowing the played card can use some (or several Event cards from those available) to increase the number of dice that are thrown and added (up to five dice at the most), or use others of these cards to allow you to modify a die roll result or reroll, others allow you to know the enemy card before putting yours out (like the allied Enigma card); that is to say that the strategy prior to a combat is accumulating good and appropriate Event cards.  This is something fundamental to playing Hitler’s Reich well, and what in one or two games you get used to. Only one “but”, and it is an important one, the player who loses the conflict also loses his used W/L Event Cards.  These are returned to around the gameboard and they must be “bought” in hard Conflict competition with the opponent; and that could take turns to do so (turns are in terms of months) and that recovery prevents the player from devoting his efforts to perform strategic operations or other goals.

The roll of dice, 3, 4 or 5 in most of Hitler’s Reich land or sea Conflict Action resolutions  have inspired  me to build the following tables to assist players understand the chances of being victorious and try to improve the use of Conflict and the Event cards which could support them.  In the background, the sum of the 6-sided dice rolls follows a binomial distribution; but since it is a rather complex calculation, I have simulated the result of 6,000 dice rolls to obtain a good statistical model.

The analysis is presented by two tables. The first table reflects normal combat situations, the first column is the dice and modifiers that the first player gets, the second column the dice that the defender will normally throw (if he does not have Conflict influencing Event cards), the third column indicates the % of times that the 1st player will win or match the dice roll of the 2nd, and the 4th column the average in points that the attacker (1st player) will extract more than the second player.

From the table it seems that this game tends to favor the attacker since it is relatively easy to obtain 4 (and sometimes 5 dice). In fact, in the second row we see how with 4 roll dice, in 82% of the time the attacker will have succeeded and should draw an average of 3.5 points more than the defender. Of course, it is still necessary to know the Conflict card that each player will have used. In the third row we observe that in this case the attacker will overcome the defender in 93% of the cases and the average difference in value of his dice roll will be 6.5. That is to say a card of value 8 is probable (since they are average data) will win to any card that the defender plays, and perhaps this one has to weigh if it is better to save the best for another less unfavorable combat.

The 4th and 5th rows refer to attacks from a “surrounded” area with a fortress (allows in the roll of dice change a low die for a 4, and sometimes a 5) or with an attacker with an event card with an additional die roll). It looks like the fortress is only a small help, and that it should have been called a trench or defensive line. Since fortress is a very impressive word!

The last rows allow us to observe that the reroll ability of the cards with 11, 12 and 13 value is not too important; for the decisive aspect of these cards is their intrinsic value.

The following table has been established for both players by throwing three dice and indicates the probability that a player exceeds the value of the opposing player. For example, the probability of one player exceeding another in three is 7.2%, the value of the cumulative probability is 28.4% that we should read as the probability for a player to draw 3 or more of difference than his opponent. This “damned” probability is what makes many times a “big” card can be lost against a middle value Conflict card of the opponent. As the result is not at all, the loser player loses the fight; and he especially loses all the W/L Event cards he used to resolve this Conflict. Perhaps in Ancient battles such as Cannae, or medieval as Crecy this is appropriate but in Hiltler’s Reich and WWII is seems too overly hazardous.

Does the preceding seem reasonable? Feedback would be appreciated.


Frank Esparrago
Author: Frank Esparrago

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2 thoughts on “The Significance of Dice Rolling Probability in Hitler’s Reich

  1. I have played many games against the same opponent and most of the times, 8 out of 10, his outrageous luck playing either side smashes me and ends our games rather soon.
    As a matter of fact, we’ve never reached 1944 and most of our games evolve rather strategically ending with a Sudden Death Victory.
    Actually, the luck factor ruins this game which looked to have good prospects becoming a favourite game.

    • The possibility of making house rules are always there. One that I have implemented, is that Italian cards can only be used to acquire event cards, reinforce or opperate around or in the Mediterranean Sea area. It gives a new dimension to the game.
      Another is when losing an area conflict you only lose half of your event cards (rounded down) (players choice). To give a more accurate WWII feeling. Just because I lose a battle on the Eastern front, that doesn’t mean I have no tanks left to use elsewhere.