This scenario allows players to play the Advanced Game scenarios, but ignore any naval aspects. The scenario assumes that the PRC has been able to nullify the ROC Navy, secure the Inshore approaches to Taiwan, and begin to establish a beachhead on Taiwan.
Rather than facing a foe which is disintegrating in front of them as in the Collapse! Scenario, this scenario depicts a situation in which the U.S. and ROK have decided that enough is enough, and the regime in North Korea needs to be changed. To that end, they’ve decided to build-up and invade. The Commonwealth has opted out, but, with world tensions high, both China and Russia may step in to even the odds…
This scenario is intended for two players and uses only the North map. Use the new Series rules released with Next War: Taiwan and available via the Support Site. (This scenario is also available at that site as a PDF.)
The following examples are intended to assist with some of the trickier aspects of play in the recently released Next War: Taiwan.
The following is an example of how to conduct an invasion of Penghu using the Advanced Game Series Rules. It is not, necessarily, the best way to go about it, but it is used as an illustration of the various methods of taking a hostile Penghu away from the Republic of China.
The example assumes that the PRC controls the Taiwan Straits Inshore Box. The example dispenses with all other non-essential steps, phases, and segments in the Sequence of Play and covers only the relevant portions of the Initiative Movement and Combat Segments.
At the beginning of an Initiative Turn, the PRC controls the Taiwan Straits Inshore Box, and both of the pesky ROC SAGs have been eliminated. The PRC determines that it will invade Penghu using the forces shown. For convenience, they are shown on the Naval Display, but they also simultaneously occupy the PRC Holding Box on the main operational map as well.
“Kashmir”, Game Turn 4
Game Turn 4 in this scenario is an “Initiative” turn for the Indians. At this point both sides are quickly running out of units, with the Pakistan/China side having a bit of an advantage since they started with a larger force. The Next War combat results table has high attrition for both attackers and defenders, so units tend to get chewed up pretty fast if they are on the front lines for a long time.
At the start of GT4, the Indians still hold 4 out of 5 VP hexes. Each is worth 5VP at game end. The Indians are also still ahead on casualty VPs by 6VP. Mitch (India) opens up his turn with some repositioning of his few remaining units. Since he is ahead, he is being conservative and trying to make my attacks as risky as possible. But, the Indian lines are thin, with just 2 steps of units holding Bandipora (4610) and a lone one-step reduced brigade in the 4511 mountain VP hex. Here is the situation at the end of exploitation movement during GT4 (red stars / green stars added to show VP hexes):
“Kashmir”, Game Turn 3
Game Turn 3 in this scenario is a “contested” turn; with much more limited movement/combat segments. In the Next War series turns are either “Initiative” turns (that have 3 move/attack cycles for the attacker and 2 move/attack cycles for the defender) or “Contested” turns that provide only 1 move/attack cycle for each side. These turns represent the need for both sides to sometimes slow combat operation in order to address logistical issues and plan for future operations.
Here in Kashmir, the Pakistan/China side has so far been stopped at the north end of the Kashmir valley. Airmobile and Airborne operations in the Indian rear area at the south end of the valley have met with limited success.
Before going into GT3, a quick note on the air situation. In the Next War series control of the air and fully taking advantage of your air assets is a critical part of the game. The air situation in “Kashmir” in GT3 is now basically even. In the “Standard Game” in the Next War series the air war is somewhat abstracted with “Air Points” being provided to both sides that can be used for fighter escort of Airmobile and Airborne missions as well as ground combat support. By comparing Air Points, the “Air Superiority Level” for each turn is set, which then determines the level of air defense threat to each side (less threat if you have superiority). In the first two turns of “Kashmir”, the Pakistan/China side has “Air Advantage”, which is the lowest level of air superiority. Still, that gives them the ability to move units by Paradrop and Airmobile movement with only limited risk of Air Defense Fire (at least in theory, although Mitch’s ADF dice have been hot). They also get a slight edge in Air Points to use in combat. In the “Advanced Game” scenarios players get much more detail (and work) to fight the air war, with individual air unit counters, SAM/AAA defense tracks, and a host of mission options including combat support, strike missions, and air-to-air combat.
“Kashmir”, Game Turn 2
GT2 is another Initiative turn for the Pakistan/Chinese side in this scenario. GT3 is a Contested turn by SSR, and the Indians will have the initiative in GT4 by SSR, so the Paks/Chinese really need to push. During initiative movement, the Paks move up more full-strength divisions into Baramula in an effort to attack south over the river line (in 4410). They bring up more units to surround the elite Indian mountain brigade in Bandipora (4610, another VP hex). However, due to hot Air Defense Fire dice rolls (there are air defense rolls against Airborne and Airmobile Movement representing SAMs, AAA, and aircraft) by the Indian side, three out of four Chinese airborne brigades get aborted back to Islamabad! That is a lot of combat power not in play. Here is the situation at the end of GT2 Initiative Movement Segment:
I’d like to add just a bit here to the background. But first, I’ll have Doug introduce himself:
I have been a gamer since the mid-1980s, when I started with Squad Leader, which of course led to a long obsession with Advanced Squad Leader. In college I was also a Harpoon fanatic, including gaming basically every naval combat from the Tom Clancy book Red Storm Rising. However, my true gaming passion has always been modern ground combat games such as the GDW Assault and Third World War series, and detailed modern air simulations like GMT’s Downtown and Elusive Victory. As a former US Army armor officer, I love games that model operational level maneuver and logistics. Development of Next War: India-Pakistan is my first time doing the research and design work for a full game. I live in Arlington, Virginia and work as a weapon program analyst for Congress.
Doug’s obvious passion for this particular patch of mud is obvious in the hard work he’s put into this project. He’s going to explain a little bit about how this project started, and, below, when says “run with the project”, he really means “Doug did most of the work.” He has tirelessly labored to ensure that the map and Orders of Battle are as accurate as they can be, and, while we have certainly collaborated in order to ensure that any new rules or systems such as High Mountains, Mountain Units, and Nuclear Weapons work seamlessly within the overall framework of the series, this game is as much Doug’s as it is mine. I’m very pleased with the outcome, excited about getting this one to print, and I hope you enjoy Part 1 of this Series Replay covering the first game turn of the introductory scenario. – Mitch
Game Background –
Next War: India Pakistan (NWIP) is the next game in development for the Next War series, following Next War: Korea (NWK) and Next War: Taiwan (NWT). In late 2013 I contacted Mitchell about the potential for a game in the series featuring a new India-Pakistan conflict. After looking at possible one-map configurations, we settled on a game that focuses on the “traditional” area of India-Pakistan conflict: the Indian states of Punjab and Jammu & Kashmir. We assume potential intervention by China (allied with Pakistan), the United States (allied with India), and Russia (allied with India). We thought it was a good fit for the Next War series since both sides have very large, mechanized ground forces and modern air forces. And, in our view, a potential conflict between India and Pakistan is one of the more likely large-scale conventional conflicts in the future. Since Mitchell was focused on finishing NWT, he told me to run with the project to get things going. In a year’s time we have a near final map and counters, along with a solid draft of the Game Specific Rules (GSR). NWIP features six scenarios (three using the standard rules and three for the advanced rules). For this “series replay” we decided to test drive the introductory standard rules scenario: “Kashmir”. I will play the “non-Allied” attacking side with Pakistan and China while Mitch takes the defending “Allied” side with the Indian forces.
Scenario Introduction –
“Kashmir” features a little bit of all the major features of the system, and is designed to help players get the feel for the Next War series in this theater. A glance at the map shows just how difficult the terrain is in this part of the world. The Kashmir valley is tucked in between towering mountain ranges to the north and south. These mountains are so high we added a new terrain type called “High Mountains” to the series (the white mountain hexes). Movement into those hexes, which represent ranges at/above 15,000 feet in most cases, is significantly restricted. Helicopters also can’t operate in those hexes. Then, inside the valley the terrain is still a challenge. There is a minor river, a large lake, and even some rice paddy hexes showing areas of intense agriculture. Basically, whatever one thinks “tank country” might be, this isn’t it.
The scenario depicts a Pakistani offensive into the Kashmir Valley, with significant Chinese support in the air and on the ground. Players earn VP for enemy casualties during the game and at game end for possession of five victory hexes: (4409 (Baramula), 4610 (Bandipora), 4412 (Srinagar), 4214 (Anantnag), and the 4511 mountain hex). Here, Mitch and I agree to play without the optional supply rules for the standard game. A close-up of the terrain shows just how difficult it is (I added the red stars just to show the VP hexes, everything else is playtest map art):
Those of you who have taken Next War: Korea (NWK) for a spin have probably noticed by now that the Korean People’s Army (KPA) and Air Force (KPAF) are fairly formidable in the game (the latter for only a little while, of course). One of the underlying assumptions of the game is that somehow, either through relaxation or negligence on the part of the international community and its enforcement of sanctions combined with the willingness of the PRC to surreptitiously defy those sanctions, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has managed to overcome several of its economic and military challenges in terms of food, spare parts, new equipment, etc. It’s not a completely unreasonable assumption if you consider that a tip regarding possible drug shipments was the only reason a recent load of weapons and spare parts bound for North Korea was found and seized by the Panamanians1. That indicates that there are active elements of a strategy to circumvent the sanctions. Stopping one shipment should make one wonder how many others got through.
The fact is, though, while the KPA and KPAF are dangerous looking forces on paper, the reality lies somewhere below the capability as depicted in Next War: Korea. Although there is no denying that the KPA is a large, relatively well-armed force composed for the most part of troops who have been brought up within the philosophy of Juche (basically, extreme self-reliance), that force is also largely underfed and under-trained. However, as Stalin is reputed to have stated, “quantity has a quality all its own.”
That sentiment can also be applied to the KPAF, which maintains a large inventory of aircraft ranging from relatively capable aircraft such as the MiG-29 to Korean War vintage MiG-15s. Although numbers can matter in terms of controlling a particular patch of sky, as is represented in the Air Superiority calculation within the game, it only applies if you can actually get the planes in the air. Within the game, the KPAF is generously assumed to have parts, pilots, and fuel for the vast majority of its airframes to fly. The Pilot Skill modifiers portray fairly well the fact that KPAF pilots only fly around 25 training hours per year (more for the MiG-29 pilots)2, but the reality is that it is highly unlikely the North could sortie many of their older airframes at all in a combat situation. In 2014 alone, they’ve had three MiG-19s crash after take-off or during training3.
It’s no secret that the Next War Series incorporates variations of mechanics from other distinguished games. One of those games is Mark Herman’s Flashpoint: Golan (FpG). I contacted Mark during the design and development of Next War: Korea regarding using a version of FpG’s International Posture Matrix, and he graciously agreed. There are differences, naturally, in the execution, and the Matrix is evolving even further in Next War: Taiwan. The intent, however, remains the same: it provides a method for players to randomly determine the effects of international influence in the primary operational area. Of course, players are always free to experiment with simply assigning Intervention Levels to explore various “what if” scenarios of their own devising.
Use of the Matrix requires a player, usually the attacked side, to roll a die to determine the sentiment of three “factions” of a particular nation: the Administration (i.e., executive and/or legislative branches), the Military, and the Popular Vote (i.e., the willingness of the people). Each faction can end up in one of the three Postures: Passive, Moderate, or Aggressive. Each Posture has an assigned value (-1, 0, +1 respectively), and the player simply adds each faction’s Posture value to generate a Posture Sum. This Posture Sum is then compared to a table to determine the overall National Posture: Passive, Moderate, or Aggressive. This National Posture is, finally, cross-referenced against the particular scenario and generates an Intervention Level. While it sounds complicated, it probably took more time for you to read how to do it then it takes to do it.
The secret sauce, if you will, is in determining which nations would or can intervene and at what levels would they intervene given enough provocation as represented by the various scenarios. The general underlying assumption is that the longer a particular nation has had to consider the issue at hand, the more likely they are to intervene at higher levels.
Welcome to our first Inside GMT Guest blog! Designer Mitchell Land is going to discuss the Next War Series. This is a series that I have some personal ties to, design-wise, and I’m really thankful to Mitch and his team of developers and testers for continuing and expanding the series. Enjoy! – Gene
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I’m flattered that Gene has granted me the opportunity to pen this guest post on the Inside GMT Blog and pleased to share with y’all some of the inside workings of the design and development going on with the Next War 
Series. Thanks, Gene!
In the next few paragraphs, I’d like to discuss the history of the series, some of the inner workings of Next War: Taiwan (NWT), make some comments on our proofing process, talk a little about Next War: India-Pakistan, and wrap up with some thoughts on future directions.
Right off the bat I think it’s important to share the history of the Next War series. Next War: Korea (NWK) is based on Gene’s design, Crisis: Korea 1995 (CK:95), which GMT Games released in 1992. In late 1998/early 1999 Gene started talking about upgrading the game and providing updated Orders of Battle, a new map, and rules revisions. That sort of languished for a few years moving in fits and starts as Gene found time to work on it with periodic updates. In early 2009, I pulled CK:95 off the shelf and played it a few times. I quickly fell in love with the overall system, and, once I really started to pay attention to the Consimworld folder, I grew excited about the pending update. So much so that I started sending Gene all sorts of suggestions about what I thought needed fixing or updating. He must’ve gotten tired of reading it all because, at some point, he just emailed me back and said, more or less, “why don’t you do it.” And that, as they say, was that. My work on the system began mid-to-late 2009 and came to fruition when it was finally released in 2012, twenty years after the original.
While we were waiting for NWK to be published, talk naturally turned to “what’s next.” My preference led me to the idea of creating a “ring” of games with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the pivot point. That is, the next few games in the series would concentrate on potential conflicts between the PRC and its neighbors. The two primary contenders were Taiwan, due to its unusual situation vis á vis the PRC, and an intervention game with India and Pakistan as the primary players. This created the opportunity to potentially provide a massive ubergame which combined all of the individual games into one large scenario. Next War: Taiwan (NWT) and Next War: India-Pakistan (NWIP) will fulfill the partial realization of that idea. NWT is at the head of the queue primarily because the map was already well along and the Orders of Battle had already been created. It was just a matter of writing the Game Specific Rules. That, it quickly became apparent, was an understatement.
Due to the obvious form which any conflict between the PRC and the Republic of China (ROC) would take, I realized that the current state of the highly abstracted naval sub-game in the Next War series simply wasn’t going to cut it. The “Anti-Shipping Strike Rules” existed in a protean form for players to try out with NWK, but that wasn’t going to be enough. Over several iterations, the necessity for providing an expanded naval map became obvious.
This led to changes in Sea Control and Contested Sea Movement and the addition of naval mines which, in turn, meant that aerial mining missions needed to be provided for as a new Air Strike Mission. The vast majority of my time has been spent working over the newly updated naval aspects including the interaction between various other sub-systems such as the air system and theater weapons (cruise missiles). The overall naval system is still abstracted in that submarines and ASW capabilities are handled via tracks and there still aren’t any individual ship counters, but the appropriate nuances exist to reflect each side’s concerns surrounding the main event: the invasion of Taiwan.
