Strategies for South Pacific: Breaking the Bismarck Barrier Scenario in Empire of the Sun

Welcome back to the 2nd half of this strategic study of the South Pacific Scenario from C3i Magazine #30. For those who haven’t read Part 1, it can be found here on Inside GMT. Remember, I’ll be discussing South Pacific strategy as it is played at a tournament. Meaning, all draw conditions are considered a Japanese victory.

As previously promised, I will start off this article with a look at another, guaranteed-to-succeed, opening move that the Allies can do using #13: Operation Watchtower. It’s called:

C-PAC Attack (Allies)

It is similar to ANZAC attack from Part 1 in that the CA Northampton is sacrificed to pin the JP fleet at Rabaul and the 1st Marines amphibious assaults into Guadalcanal, but everything else is different. The activation/move sequence is as follows and uses C-Pac HQ for 8 activations, but only uses 7.

• CA Northampton in Noumea (4828) naval move and attack Rabaul
• [CV Enterprise] in Noumea (4828) naval move to 4524 and attack Guadalcanal
• [CV Lexington] in Noumea (4828) naval move to 4524 and attack Guadalcanal
• [CV Wasp] in Noumea (4828) naval move to 4524 and attack Guadalcanal
• BB N.Carolina in Noumea (4828) naval move and attack Guadalcanal
• 1st Marines in Noumea (4828) Amphibious Assault Guadalcanal
• 1 MAW in Efate (4826) activates in place

As you can see, nearly all of the US fleet is mustered against Guadalcanal with the 1st Marines again heading up the ground attack against the entirely outmatched reduced JP 4SN brigade. But with only Rabaul being pinned, the JP player is free to attempt to react with the army or navy air forces against the US fleet in Guadalcanal.

In terms of Allied risk for this attack, it is even lower than ANZAC attack. The risk to CA Northampton is the same, but the carriers are protected by the full strength battleship and it will only take a hit on a 40% chance if air is scrambled in reaction. Furthermore, there isn’t enough combat factors available in reaction to do any more damage than that. Also, the activation of the 1st MAW air unit is a clever tactic. It allows the US player to Post-Battle move that unit into Guadalcanal which means a reduced strength carrier isn’t required to stay there to provide ZOI coverage. I will discuss this delayed move tactic more with the Allied march in New Guinea.

All things considered, this is a fantastic opening as it protects the US carriers better than ANZAC attack (which does put them at a 10% risk each), and it even contains a subtle trap for the JP player. To explain: the air/naval attack strength of the US fleet attacking Guadalcanal is 40 combat factors. Because of Inter-Service Rivalry (ISR), the JP player can only react with either naval air or army air. The highest available air strength that can react is naval and is a total of 20, which even with a combat result most favorable to the JP (1x / .25x) will not be enough to stop the 1st Marines from landing. So, the Allied player is hoping that the JP player will react with the air, which will cause some damage to those air units (if not outright eliminating them) and thus sucking away precious air replacement points from the JP player, which don’t come back in this scenario. Sure, BB N.Carolina could take a hit, but the Allies will likely replace next turn.

As the JP player, what can be done? Simply put, don’t take the bait. Savo should still be played, though, for the same reasons as outlined in Part 1. Activating the JP fleet in Rabaul to redeploy it and collecting a card draw are still a good ideas. Doing nothing at Guadalcanal is the safest route. However, this allied attack does have a small weakness that the JP player could exploit. Unlike ANZAC attack not every JP unit is locked down and the BB N.Carolina is in play. It and the BB Washington are the two hardest US naval units for the JP to eliminate on the road to collecting the Political Will point for US fleet destruction in this scenario. ANZAC attack purposely keeps BB N.Carolina out of play for exactly that reason: it is immune from reaction or Submarine attack card play because it is never activated.

And there is the secret. If the JP player has a Submarine attack card (especially I-19), consider reacting with the army air against the US fleet. The army air, among all the JP units on the map, are usually the least used because of ISR and if they are damaged (or even eliminated) it isn’t really necessary to spend replacement points on them because two air units are coming with Turn 4 reinforcements. Tainan air and 6AD, although weaker than the naval air, have enough punch at 16CF to damage the battleship with a 1x result (40%) chance and combined with a submarine attack card, there is a chance that BB N.Carolina could be removed from the board entirely. This will put a serious dent in US fleet strength and significantly increase the chances that the incoming JP fleet at Truk can wipe out all the US naval on the board before turn 5. There is risk for the JP player in that both air units could be eliminated on a 40% chance, and it should be noted that the submarine attack cards don’t guarantee hits, but depending on the JP player’s opening draw it is an option worthy of consideration.

However the JP choose to react, the Allies should still spread out the US fleet in Post Battle Movement as detailed in Part 1 to help prevent a follow up attack on Port Moresby.

And there they are. Two solid opening Offensives for the Allies with Operation Watchtower to start off the scenario. Both of them have different nuances in there approach but achieve the same immediate result, which is the capture of Guadalcanal. Which will you choose? Or will you find another offensive sequence that works better? Time will tell.

Let’s pick up the story where we left off in Part 1. Turns 3 and 4 have completed and the Japanese player has likely had a lot of say with events on the map. But soon, the Allied strength will begin to ramp up.

End Game Strategy (Turn 5)

It’s turn 5 and, depending on War in Europe, the Allies will see their first reinforcements hit the theater or will continue to increase in strength (especially Naval). The Japanese will also pick up their last reinforcement for the scenario (28th AF). By now, the Japanese should have spread out the Japanese Navy and/or Naval air units so that every port still owned by the JP in the Solomon Islands and New Guinea has at least one unit on it. The Japanese don’t want to be caught out on a surprise attack in key ports without enough forces to repel the attack.

For the Allies, it is at this point that they need to commit to a path of advancement. Not only to win Progress of the War for the turn, but to establish the foundation for winning the scenario in Turn 6.

The usual path is to press across the Northern New Guinea coast to take the ports at Lae and Wewak with either Australian or US Army Corps units, because it is likely that the US Navy is still too weak yet to go toe to toe with the Imperial Japanese Navy to support a straight-up amphibious assault. This means leveraging the easily replaced US and Australian Air units to help cover the ground advance. I like to use a technique I call the Bomber Two-Step.

Bomber Two-Step (Allies)

Before getting into this though, it should be noted that if the Allies have an MI card with a high logistics value, don’t discount the possibility of doing standard pinning attacks on large JP unit stacks using air units with a main attack on land. The Ground attack bonuses will usually be better, especially if an Allied ship can be leveraged.

However, it is likely is that the Japanese forces will be spread out everywhere covering ports, so pinning everything down will be difficult. Also, this technique is handy because it can be used with any card used for Operations, as long it is a 2 or 3 Ops card so the ground units can actually move.

The idea is to activate one Bomber and one regular air unit and then any number of Ground units that will allow for a good chance for success against the objective hex trying to be captured.  Move the Ground units to the battle hex and declare the Bomber will attack the hex as well, covering the ground unit advance. When activating the regular air unit, be sure to move it closer to the battle hex, if needed, but don’t have it actually attack the battle hex. The idea is that this regular unit will move into the captured hex during Post Battle Movement (PBM).

Why use a Bomber? Because the AZOI they project doesn’t neutralize enemy AZOI. This makes them ideal in pinning attacks or for covering ground movement like this. In reaction, if there is an air/naval combat the Bomber will likely be eliminated, but its presence will guarantee that the Ground units won’t take damage because of 9.2.F.5. After the Ground Combat is resolved, assuming the Allies have captured the target hex, the regular air unit (which does project an AZOI that will neutralize enemy AZOI) can PBM into the hex just taken to protect the ground units from follow up air raids, assuming the targeted hex has an airbase (which nearly all Northern New Guinea coastal hexes do). Remember the rules for stacking limits (no more than 3 air or ground units per hex) when planning this attack.

If the targeted hex has a port, and the Allies are not under Inter-Service Rivalry (ISR), consider using a Naval unit (preferably a CV, but it can be of any type depending on the friendly AZOI network) instead of the regular air unit. This will increase the size of the ground attack because stacking limits in the target hex will be less of a concern.

What can the JP do to prevent this? Not much. Ground combat can be brutal in Empire of the Sun however, so have enough ground units in the target hex to make the attack expensive or even repulsed (a lucky roll here may even collect the Political Will point for complete Allied Corps or Marine Division elimination on an attack). Also, the Japanese can help prevent attacks like these with aggressive Hell’s Highway raids (see Part 1) which may pull in and damage Allied air units in reaction lowering the number of them available for Offensives.

Overall all, though, what are the offensive and defensive options for the JP in Turn 5? In terms of offense, there are two. One, if there is still an opportunity, press for the +1 Port play detailed in Part 1. Remember, the Allies must gain 3 ports over the Japanese in order to win the scenario. Grabbing an Allied port somewhere makes it much more difficult for the Allies to win the scenario by Port Control.

And Two, Political Will. If the U.S. Political Will counter is at +1 or +2 at the beginning of turn 5, then a Political Will auto-victory may be in reach for the Japanese player. A good way to secure the last two PW points is to collapse China. This is hard though, and I will talk more about China later in this article. Failing that, focus on denying Allied Progress of the War and looking for opportunities to eliminate the US Navy presence on the map. That point can be collected every turn, so if WiE is zero or less, and it was collected in Turn 4, then the only Naval unit on the map is the BB Washington. Hunt that lone Battleship down and sink her!

As for defense, this is mostly about posture. A good defensive posture will allow fast and close reaction to Allied attacks even with low Ops plays and it will protect the ports in Palau and Truk by denying supply even if they are captured. I use a defensive formation called…

The “L” Defense (Japanese)

Observe the map graphic of an idealized defensive layout of Japanese units at the beginning of Turn 5, the unneutralized JP AZOI coverage on the map makes it look like a sideways “L”. The pivot point is Rabaul and it is important that the legs reach north to Truk and west to Sarong (the unplayable top half of the Ceram hex prevents prevents movement and supply from passing around the JP AZOI network). This creates a box in the northwestern quadrant of the map. It is very important that this AZOI net not be breached by Allied AZOI. The idea being that even if the Palau port is captured, the JP AZOI network will prevent the Allies from supplying that hex, thus denying that port for the Port Control victory condition. This protection would also apply to Truk, if it happens to fall, by shifting an air unt to Ponope to close the net again.

The main advantage to this is not having to keep units in the rear to protect Palau from a surprise attack. There are two hexes that will be principal targets for the Allies to breach this line. They are Wewak (the main endpoint for the northern New Guinea march) and the Admiralty Islands. Kavieng and Truk will be strong secondary objectives for the Allies, but the JP network can still be maintained if air units are shifted around. Make sure units (especially naval units) are always at these ports as much as possible.

China Collapse

Turn 5 is a good place to circle back and provide more detail about the wildcard in the game: China. At the beginning of the scenario, the China marker is at Major Breakthrough. In order for China to collapse, there needs to be three shifts of that marker to the left, either by event card play or through China OC Offensive plays (13.72) . As was pointed out in Part 1, the JP only has one China event card (which is permanently removed when played) and the Allies have two (which don’t get permanently removed). Furthermore, with only 4 turns in the game, the maximum number of China OC plays that can be attempted is two, because they can only be attempted every other turn.

The good news is that the actual mechanics of a Chinese OC Offensive play heavily favors the JP. Checking the rulebook, 17.10.5.J spells out the situation in the China-Burma-India theater with regards to a Chinese OC Offensive. In referencing 13.72, assuming the Chinese Divisions in China marker is at 9, the target number for a successful Chinese OC Offensive play is 9 or less. There is a +1 to the roll because of the 14th LRB is in the China Box (this is printed on the board) so, in other words, there is a 90% chance of success on this roll (don’t roll a 9 – which would actually shift the marker to the right instead).

So, the JP plays the event and does two China OC Offensives on turns 3 and 5 and China collapses, right? Unlikely, because to ruin this plan, the Allies would just need to play one of their two China event cards to foil it and the odds are high the Allied player will draw at least one of them in the first three turns.

But still, pressure should be applied and fortune favors the prepared. If the Japanese player finds himself in Turn 3 with an extra 3 Ops card (usually because of event card draws), play it for the China OC Offensive. This sets up turn 5 for an interesting showdown for China. Assuming the JP draws a 3 Ops card and has its China event card (either drawn or saved in the Future Offensives queue from a previous turn), it will take two card plays for the Japanese to successfully cause China to fall, if the Allies haven’t shifted it back by then. So the best strategy for the JP is to hold the needed cards on Turn 5 and wait until the end of the turn. This will put pressure on the Allied player to use up a card play to play his China card for event (assuming he has it) to guard against China possibly falling. This reduces the total number of Offensives that the Allies can do in Turn 5.

And if, by some low-percentage chance, the JP gets the opportunity to play those two cards in turn 5 and successfully collapses China, it is a huge boon for the JP player. It could happen that the JP simply win with an auto-victory if PW drops to zero, but even if that doesn’t happen, the Allies will only get to draw 3 cards (and have 1 pass) for turn 6. Just remember though, the Future Offensives card can’t be played as the last card in any given turn. Plan accordingly.

End Game Strategy (Turn 6)

By now, the pathway to victory should be obvious for both sides. There is little in the way of new strategic techniques to apply on this turn beyond what has already been discussed.

The Japanese player will likely be on full defense and will be challenged to protect every port possible (especially those with HQs on them). If the Allies do gain the Turn 6 fleet, the JP will be under even more pressure to protect port spaces in the Solomon Islands with what is left of the Imperial Japanese Navy and air units on the map.

For the Allies, victory usually lies in getting at least 12 ports spaces (and/or the lone JP Resource Hex) and Turn 6 is the last turn to push for them. Also, be looking out for an opportunity to capture the two JP HQs on the board, especially if the Turn 6 fleet deploys onto the map. Use everything you’ve got to conquer and hold until the end of the turn to succeed in Breaking the Bismarck Barrier.

Level Up!

The best part about the South Pacific Scenario is that it fully uses the rules from the main rulebook. So the techniques learned in these two articles are readily transferable to the base game. For example, let’s say you’re playing the Allies in a Campaign game and the JP are marching north up the Kwai bridge hexes in 1942 to attack Rangoon; setup Hell’s Highway style surprise attacks to land hits on the incoming JP army units to slow them down. Another example, you’re playing the JP in the 1943 scenario and you need to march north, up the western Burma coastline, to take Dacca. Setup and execute a variant of the bomber two-step attack to push through the Chinese and Commonwealth ground units in the way. Yet another example, both the of provided Allied opening attacks provide an excellent example of how to setup and execute a smothering offensive by pinning enemy unit stacks to mitigate the risk failure on the main objective.

And finally, the very important lesson to be learned in the Japanese “L” defense is to make sure you maintain your AZOI networks (this goes for either Allied or Japanese players, but especially Japanese in any given scenario) to protect rear areas and prevent disruption of vital supply lines of communication to the units at the front.

Empire of the Sun is a deep game, rich with strategic options which lead to various pathways to victory for both sides. Take these foundational techniques and build upon them through repeated playthroughs to increase your skill. In time, your increasing experience will meet with success. See you at the gaming table!

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Articles in this Series: Part 1 Part 2