Ian M. Sullivan is the Special Advisor for Analysis and ISR at the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command.

Disclaimer: All views expressed in this post are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or Army Training and Doctrine Command

---

Turn 7

Game Turn 7, and the war went nuclear! After another highly successful air superiority phase, NATO continued to own the skies. NATO literally put up enough Fifth Generation fighters to put two squadrons against every remaining Russian squadron. Two squadrons of Flankers and the last Belarusian Fulcrum were destroyed by USAF F-22s and F-35As and USMC F-35Bs. Another Frogfoot squadron was intercepted and killed by RAF Typhoon. Russia’s best success came from two very successful SOF attacks against NATO’s IADS. NATO success came from HARM strikes by Growlers and Vipers.

And then, the Russians upped the ante by launching three separate tactical nuclear strikes. The first destroyed the USN ARG and it’s embarked 2nd Marines. The second occurred in Central Poland, and severely damaged the headquarters of the US 3rd ID. The Russians were able to finish it off with a strike by Fencers that somehow managed to elude NATO’s dominant air defenses. The third occurred in northern Poland, against the German 31st Fallschirmjaeger Regiment and the 41st Panzergrenadier Brigade. Both units were hit very hard, and pulled off the line. NATO immediately retaliated with its own nuclear strike against the Russian Airbase at Kaliningrad, obliterating it.

NATO followed its nuclear strikes with a massive series of conventional air and cruise missile strikes, which damaged five separate headquarters units and left an artillery brigade in smoking ruins after a B-2 strike.

Trying to gain momentum after the nuclear strike, Russia tried desperately to smash the central NATO defense line. The Russians threw five brigades at Olsztyn, but NATO held on, losing a Polish Reconnaissance Regiment in the fight, but allowing the Princess Pats to hold the city. The Russians, however, faced a growing dilemma, which forced them to shift four brigades and supporting artillery to form a defense line against NATO forces advancing to the Pasteka River. In the South, the Russians also had to withdraw in the face of growing NATO combat power. They tried one more push against Ostrow Mazowiecka, and the Spanish 10th Mechanized Brigade was battered, but held firm. The Russians had to withdraw its two brigades that pierced NATO’s lines in the last turn to avoid their getting cut off. Emergency resupply was required to bail out the 28th Motor Rifles. The most successful Russian fight during the turn occurred after a chemical strike on the bruised 2-3 BCT. After a heroic two-plus weeks of holding the line, at times against overwhelming odds, the Spartan Brigade was finally destroyed, although making Leonids proud, it took a Motor Rifle brigade with it! Moron labe, indeed!

Losses were heavy this turn, for both sides. The nuclear strikes destroyed a USN ARG, two battalions of the 2nd Marines, and a squadron of Sea Cobras. The 3rd ID HQ and its 2nd BCT also were destroyed, along with a Polish reconnaissance regiment. Russia’s losses were worse. Four squadrons of aircraft, one artillery brigade, and six maneuver brigades.

In spite of the nuclear attack, NATO shifted to the offensive, and began rolling the Russians back. 1-82 and 2-82 leapfrogged the Polish 21st Podhale Rifles, and re-captured Wegrow from the Russians, and with their Polish brothers-in-arms will be in a position to attack Sokolow Podlaski, which now is the last Russian-occupied city south of the Bug River. A joint assault by the 3-82 and the UK 20th Mechanized Brigade recaptured Siedlce, smashing a Russian brigade in the process. 3-101, the 2nd ACR, the Spanish 10th Mech and the Polish 2nd Legion Mech Brigade battered a Russian brigade and can begin pushing them back. In the lakes area, a joint Polish-German attack out of Szcynto, avenged the 2-3 BCT, and the German 12th Pazer Brigade advanced north of the city. In spite of the nuke strike, NATO forces advanced out of the Eblag area on a wide front. A joint attack by the 1-3 BCT, the German 26th Fallschirmjaeger Regiment, and the Polish 6th Airborne Brigade tried to breach the Pasteka River at Braniewo, but the Russians held. NATO now has six brigade equivalents on the east bank of the Pasteka, and German engineers successfully bridged it. The French 27th Mountain brigade managed to anchor the line at Olsztyn, augmenting the Princess Pats. NATO is now in position to begin a general offensive, with the Belarusian border in sight in the south and Kaliningrad in the north. And more reinforcements have arrived. NATO air forces and attack helicopters were omnipresent across the battlefield in the close support role, and whether it was Belgian, Dutch, or Danish F-16s, RAF Tornadoes, or USAF A-10s, and German or French Tigers, Polish Hinds, or American or British Apaches, NATO ground forces were well supported from the air.

Lessons Learned: Nuclear war is scary, but the tactical nuke strikes were not necessarily overwhelming. The most successful Russian strike was against the ARG, which stung NATO, but didn’t derail their operations. It did stop an amphibious assault to support the offensive out of Eblag, but NATO can press on without them. What was scary was that I twice missed the roll for nuclear Armageddon—once for Russia and once for NATO—by one! Nuclear targeting was relatively easy for Russia, but hard for NATO. The ARG was an obvious target. The Germans driving from Eblag were a growing, grave threat. The US 3rd ID HQ was a target of opportunity. I was more circumspect for NATO. Although there were better targets than the Kaliningrad Airbase, I figured the Polish Government would frown on NATO nuclear use on Polish territory that wasn’t required to save Poland. I felt NATO had to respond after it was hit by both chemical and nuclear weapons, but couldn’t really find a high quality target. It will be interesting to see how NATO shifts to the offensive. They seriously bloodied Russian forces by defending cities and river lines, taking advantage of the defensive benefits provided by the terrain. The shoe will now be on the other foot. Again, because I don’t really have political objectives for which to fight, I think NATO’s best play is to advance on the Belarusian border, and try to use it as a springboard to re-enter the occupied Baltic States.

Turn 8

Game turn 8 began as both sides determined the implications of last turn’s nuclear strikes. NATO aircraft again dominated the air domain, putting up nine squadrons in the air superiority role, including USAF F-22s and F-35As. The Russian Aerospace Force had only one squadron of Fulcrums left to contest this force, and it was splashed by the Fifth Generation fighters. The SOF fight was eventful. Spetsnaz forces damaged a NATO airbase, but lost a unit in an unsuccessful attack against NATO IADS. After Russia’s use of nuclear and chemical weapons, NATO made these weapons a priority target, tasking US SOF to strike Russian nuclear and chemical weapons stockpiles. The attacks were moderately successful, but one US team was lost in the raid. German SOF hit what was left of the Russian IADs, and Latvian SOF, which gamely carried on the fight even with its homeland occupied, severely damaged the Headquarters of the Russian 106th Guards Airborne Division. Unfortunately, the Latvians were destroyed in the raid.

Early in the turn a reeling Russia took an enormous gamble. Recognizing the danger that it’s “escalate to de-escalate “ approach might lead to a broader nuclear exchange, the Russians nevertheless launched another nuclear strike, this time against a US carrier battle group operating in the Southern Baltic. The CVBG and its precious air wing were destroyed in an increasingly radioactive Baltic Sea. Armageddon was averted, and NATO instead concentrated on renewed conventional strikes. B-2s conducted very effective strikes on Russian WMD stockpiles, and raids by BUFFS and Strike Eagles destroyed a Russian artillery brigade and an MRL brigade, respectively. With losses mounting and NATO combat power growing, Russia ended its offensive and rapidly withdrew to form some kind of defense line in the Polish territory it still occupied. 

NATO, however, had blood in their eyes, and launched an attack across the entire front. In the South, the 82nd Airborne, the Polish 21st Podhale Rifles, the UK 28th Mech Brigade, and the Belgian Light Brigade, which was inserted via an air assault, converged on Sokolow Podlaski. Supported by US and British Apaches and RAF Tornadoes, and ably assisted by French Rafales, which bounced a squadron of Frogfoot, NATO smashed the Russian Brigade holding the city, thereby recapturing the last city held by Russia south of the Bug River. The British and Belgians leapt across the River and are in range of Russian-occupied Siemiatycze. The 101st Air Assault, the 2nd ACR, the Spanish 10th Mechanized Brigade, and the Polish 2nd Legion Mechanized Brigade overwhelmed the Russian defenders of Zanbrow, and two BCTs of the 101st advanced along the highway toward Bialystok. US Apaches and A-10s provided superb close support. 

In the Masurian Lakes area, NATO had some trouble massing forces in the woodlands, but was able to converge five-plus brigades of Polish, German, and Canadians at Russian-held Mragowo. Even with close air support from US Apaches, French Tigers, and Italian Tornadoes, NATO could not force back the defending 15th Guards Motor Rifles, who were battered, but not broken. NATO forces advancing northward and eastward across the Pasteka River, closed on Lidzbark Warminski. The French 27th Mountain Brigade, the Italian Ariete Armored Brigade and the German 21st Panzer Brigade supported by US Apaches, Italian Mangusta, and USAF A-10s shattered the Russian defenders. The Franco-German Brigade was inserted by helicopter to secure the right flank. NATO now controls the southern half of the Pasteka-Lyna River Valley. 

Finally, NATO forces breached the Pasteka River along the coast after a combined assault by the 1-3 BCT, the reconstituted 41st Panzergrenadier Brigade, the Polish 6th Airborne Brigade, and the German 26th Fallschirmjaeger Regiment pushed back the Russian defenders of Braniewo. This assault was supported by German and Spanish Tigers and German Tornadoes. The Raider Brigade and the Panzergrenadiers pushed into Braniewo on the north side of the river with the Kaliningrad border in sight. Three more Russian maneuver brigades were destroyed in this fighting.

Having suffered staggering losses, including the destruction of more than 20 maneuver brigades, not counting supporting units, as well as almost 75 percent of its air power, Russian offered NATO a cease-fire, stating that they would withdraw from all NATO occupied territory within 72 hours. NATO could’ve continued the fight, but it too suffered severe losses, with 12-plus maneuver brigades lost, as well as a US CVBG, an ARG, and a number of air squadrons. Most of the losses fell on the Poles, the Baltic States, and the Americans, who bore the brunt of the initial Russian invasion. The prospect of a broader nuclear exchange weighed heavily on NATO decision-makers. In terms of victory points, the game ends with Russia at +3, which equates to a draw. However, the reality is that Russia literally has nothing left to stop NATO from occupying Kaliningrad, Belarus, and liberating the Baltic States. The only reason NATO demurred from continuing its general offensive was the risk of a strategic nuclear exchange. In reality, I think the game ended as a marginal NATO victory.

Lessons Learned: Whoever the idiot was that commanded NATO’s naval forces probably ought to get the same treatment as Admiral John Byng, who the British in 1757 executed to “encourage the others” to avoid his ineptitude. NATO should’ve withdrawn its carriers after the first nuclear strike. NATO had more than enough air power to avoid placing them at risk, and the Russians made them pay. I like to think that this strike is why NATO agreed to the cease-fire. Russia’s collapse came quick; losses just piled up to a point where their only choice was to rapidly fall back. In some places, particularly the South, it was almost a rout. It’s amazing how effective air mobility can be when air supremacy is held. NATO didn’t follow up with a massive operation like the deep attack made by the 101st a few turns ago, but it effectively positioned forces that aided the final offensive. The role of the Belgian Light Brigade, for example, was instrumental in clearing the Bug River line, and the insertion of the Franco-German Brigade by the Lyna River presented NATO with some real opportunities.

Finally, one last word on Armageddon…..After launching the nuke strike on the US carrier, I actually rolled a 3, which was a roll under the five mushroom cloud markers on the map. That should’ve ended the game right there. I chose to ignore it because I wanted to play one more turn. Mulligans are possible when you play with cardboard armies on paper maps! Nevertheless, the gravity of that situation was chilling to me. Sixteen days into a Russian war with NATO and a general nuclear exchange would’ve been underway. As a child of the 1980s, the immortal words of Professor Falken’s WOPR computer in the classic movie Wargames come to mind…..Do you want to play a game?

Final Report

The war ended on Game Turn 8, with Russia in full retreat and NATO on the general offensive. In terms of time, the fight lasted about 24 days or so. The map picture shows the final disposition of forces. NATO had utterly crushed the southern shoulder of the offensive, and was driving on the Belarusian border and along the Bialystok highway. The fighting around the Masurian Lakes was far more confused, and Russia still held on to several key positions—Mragowo, Ketrzyn, Gizycko, and the the town of Orzysz—which not only formed strong defensive bastions, but also controlled the key roads running East-west through the lakes, marshes, and forests. The NATO drive along the coast and up the Pasteka-Lyna River Valley was the most dangerous to Russia, with two NATO brigades literally right along the Kaliningrad frontier at Braniewo. Russia likely would have been able to hold a line along the Pregolya River line for a few more turns, but they were running out of maneuver units to hold the line in the face of still growing NATO combat power with massive air support.

Lessons for NATO: the single most important aspect of the game was actually the scenario I chose to play. By playing the tactical surprise scenario, NATO had enough force on the ground to stem the initial Russian invasion—barely. The presence of the 82nd Airborne and the quick arrival of the 2nd ACR in the south made a huge difference, as did the early presence of the 2-3 HBCT and the 173rd Airborne. Placing the prepositioned equipment also allowed NATO to get another HBCT into the fight early. These units, combined with the Polish Army, were able to defend forward longer than I thought they could, which allowed more reinforcements forward. It was close, with Russians only three hexes from Warsaw. They even broke through four hexes beyond the Narew River before the breakthrough was contained. After that, NATO developed a massive edge in maneuver units, and shifted to the general offensive.

SOF was pretty effective, and helped pound away at the Russian IADS. The Wild Weasel aircraft in NATO’s arsenal were very potent, along with the stealthy B-2s. NATO quickly took control in the air, and never lost air superiority once they won it. NATO’s Fifth Generation fighters were a massive advantage here. As soon as NATO could direct its Fourth Generation aircraft to support the fight on the ground, and its B-1s and B-52s, Russia really was in trouble. I found it was better to hold aircraft in reserve to support ground operations rather than in using them to conduct massive strike campaigns. I used the heavy bombers for strikes, but kept much of the tactical air in a ground support role. The A-10s Strike Eagles, and Tornadoes were the heroes of that effort, but F-16s, F/A-18s, and even Polish Fitters also did yeoman’s work. Taking down the Kaliningrad S-400s was essential, and a combination of air strikes, cruise missiles, and SOF achieved that end in due course, but not quickly enough to present Russia with a real opportunity to win. Which brings me back to the start; I think NATO “won” because they had decent indications and warning, ceding to the enemy tactical, but not strategic surprise.

I completely botched and squandered NATO’s maritime capabilities, and suffered unnecessary losses there. It was too tempting to bring their forces forward into the Baltic, but they were very vulnerable. Next time, I’d re-think their use. NATO’s response to Russian tactical nuclear and chemical strikes—targeting Kaliningrad Airbase—made no sense in game terms. That was more me playing out what I thought would happen.

Russian lessons learned. The first is don’t launch a general invasion of Poland unless you achieve strategic surprise. Poland provides a problematic battle space, as the terrain canalizes the advance across a series of critical towns and cities that become fortresses when defended by determined enemy formations. It would’ve been better under a tactical surprise scenario to have seized the Suwalki Gap, restore the land bridge to Kaliningrad, and then secure the cities controlling key road junctions. I pressed too hard and battered the Russian forces against strong NATO positions. I should’ve been less greedy, moved to the defensive after securing a line I could hold, and force NATO to smash into Russian-lines. I don’t know what more Russia could do in the air. They kept it contested for a few turns, but they end up outclassed and outnumbered, which is not a recipe for success. Russia did everything it could to keep its IADS up, but NATO eventually overwhelmed them. That was a huge difference, particularly when NATO shifted to the offensive. While NATO dedicated countless aircraft and helicopters to its ground attacks, most Russian attempts to support their attacks were broken up by NATO interceptors or IADS. That really made a difference on the ground. Russia lasted longer than i thought they would at sea. The big mistake I made was in not seizing Bornholm at the start of the game. I made a random call, which had Russia seizing Gotland, but not Bornholm. That was a bad move. Russia’s use of chemical weapons met with only limited success, but the nuke strikes were very successful, were huge gambles, and if it weren’t for my “strategic mulligan,” would’ve, cued up my favorite REM song…..

More random thoughts. This was a not really a war of maneuver. It was a war of attrition. I think NATO would’ve required another two turns to really be able to fight the yep way they’d want. But the key NATO move was the divisional air assault by the 101st. That was the best maneuver of the game and was a real success. The side on the defensive had a huge advantage, particularly defending urban areas and rough terrain. Russian fires units were really key to their early advance, but were magnets for NATO air and SOF strikes as the game went on. And finally, it was really good to see how the rules on troop quality made a difference. Column shifts for ER 7 formations made a huge difference and really offered NATO a key edge. Training matters! I was shocked at how lethal the fight was. The losses were staggering, and not really sustainable. Modern war is short, swift, and very destructive.

I made a comment in one of my posts about the victory conditions and the political aims of the war. It was pointed out to me that may be a bias on my part, and on sober second thought, it likely was. On reflection, I could’ve easily have conducted a more limited Russian invasion, placed them on the defensive, and try to win a war of attrition where Russia would force NATO to break themselves on Russian defensive lines. So it wasn’t a game limitation after all, but my own flawed thinking.

GMT designed a really fun game. I know there are cyber rules in one of the supplements, and I’ll use them the next time I play one of these games. I also think that they could think about converging electronic warfare and counter-space capabilities targeting precision navigation and timing and communications. It would add another layer of complexity, but it would also add another dimension for NATO to overcome, particularly in the air. The other thing I think I’ll do is a random roll to determine which scenario I play. This could take into account the competition period struggle, involving information operations, strategic cyber war, and the intelligence struggle. I may consider some kind of die roll modifications, gaining a competition period edge at the expense of crisis and conflict capabilities on hand (fewer supply points, cruise missiles, a shifted reinforcement arrival rate or something.) I know that isn’t of interest to all gamers, but it may be for some who seek to model a more complex geopolitical road-to-war. 

---

Previous Articles from Ian Sullivan:

“Poland is Not Yet Lost”: Playing Next War: Poland (Part 1)

“Poland is Not Yet Lost”: Playing Next War: Poland (Part 2)

China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam Series

A Hop, Skip, and an Amphibious Assault — Playing Next War: Taiwan Series