Ian M. Sullivan is the Special Advisor for Analysis and ISR at the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command.

Disclaimer: All views expressed in this post are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or Army Training and Doctrine Command

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Turn 4

The air phase clearly went NATO’s way, but not all was good news for the alliance. They downed two squadrons of Russian fighters—one of advanced Flanker E and another of Fulcrum—while air defenses downed the last Belarusian Frogfoot. More importantly, USMC Hornets downed a squadron of Blackjack raiding NATO shipping. NATO lost only a squadron of Gripens on the ground to a Spetsnaz raid. NATO SOF had a rough turn, although they were moderately successful against the IADS network. USAF B-2s destroyed a third S-400 battalion, but one remains. The naval fight concluded, with two Russian SAGs destroyed in the Southern Baltic. The USMC also landed a regiment at Gdiniya, with a second amphibious group poised to assault Gotland on the next turn.

The ground fight was swirling and chaotic. Russia made some gains, but NATO inflicted huge losses on them, and even managed something of a counter attack in the south. The heroic stand of the 82nd Airborne at Sokolow Podlaski finally came to an end, but it’s 1st and 2nd BCTs fell back in good order, establishing a new strong position on the western side of the Bug River at Wyszkow. It’s 3rd BCT withdrew to the outskirts of Warsaw to reestablish the line. The 2nd ACR continues to hold Ostrow Mazowieca, but was hit hard by four brigades. The Poles also were pushed out of Lomza, but the Russians are stalled clearing the city. The Russians had a major success in the center, as forces streaming out of the Suwalki Gap forced their way across the Pisa River, shattering two Polish brigades in the process. The Russians, however, face some severe supply issues, and will need to scramble to keep its armored spearheads operational. The Russians have five brigades across the Pisa, but the Poles were able to establish a new line with three-plus brigades outside the wooded area west of the river. In the North, the Russians finally took Bartoszyce after a determined stand by the 2nd BCT, 3rd ID and the 173rd Airborne. A battered 2-3 withdrew to the town of Biskupiec, and the 173rd was destroyed after severely bloodying the Russians for four turns. Along the coast, 1st BCT of the 3rd ID continues to hold Paslek and is really stalling the Russian advance. Air support from Strike Eagles and omnipresent Apaches really aided their stand. 

The good news for NATO is the arrival of reinforcements that have started to hit the lines. German Fallschirmjaegers reinforced the Poles just west of the 1-3; creating a tough bastion to breach. A German Panzer Brigade is just behind them, with a second just behind it. Elements of the Italian Friuli Division also are making their way to the coast along roads that will no longer be clogged by IDPs. A Polish mech brigade also arrived, giving NATO’s line in the North a bit of depth. NATO shifted the entire 101st Air Assault to Warsaw, which provides a great means of counterattacking next turn. That chance was opened up by the brilliant stand of the 2nd ACR, which after holding the line, linked up with an arriving Spanish Airborne Brigade and the Danish Mechanized Brigade. Backed by Apaches and supporting fires from NATO’s Multinational Corps Northeast, NATO counter-attacked south of Ostrow Mazowiecka, destroying two Russian brigades in the process, which was a huge success for NATO. More NATO units are entering the fray.

So Russia achieved a limited breakthrough in the south and center, but NATO successfully contained the southern push, and even struck back. In addition to the 173rd, NATO also lost two other Polish brigades and a squadron of Polish Hinds that were caught on the ground. Russia lost a staggering seven brigades in the fighting—six maneuver and one artillery brigade destroyed in a B-52 strike—in addition to a squadron of Hinds.

Lessons Learned: It goes without saying, but terrain matters. NATO has given ground grudgingly, and used cities and rivers to very effectively blunt Russian attacks. It also goes without saying, but high quality units backed by artillery, helicopters, and ground support aircraft can hold off a seemingly overwhelming attack for some time. The stand of the Polish and US Army forward may have won NATO the time they needed to begin rolling back the Russian advance. NATO essentially won the naval war, and now will have further strike power in the form of two Carrier Battlegroups which bring even more high quality aircraft into the fight. Supply has not been much of an issue yet, but it will be next turn for the Russians. 

Turn 5

Turn 5, Next War Poland, and it too was a big one for NATO. On the heels of their previous success last turn, NATO knocked the stranglehold Russia had on the initiative, making it a contested turn. NATO now won air supremacy, downing five squadrons of Russian fighters for the loss of one squadron of USAF Vipers. SOF was very ineffective for both sides this turn, although Polish SOF did strike the HQ of the Russian 106th Guards Airborne Division. NATO now has an embarrassment of riches in terms of strike aircraft, and USAF bombers did a number on Russian artillery and headquarters units. B-2s hit one Russian artillery brigade up north very hard, destroying it. USN aviation is now ranging across the battle space, with Growlers pounding the IADS. Russian air defenses are almost completely eliminated, and NATO’s ability to turn loose its fourth generation fighter-bombers in air-to-mud missions is a huge combat multiplier.

The Russians got off to a good start pressing NATO back on all fronts. The Russians moved closer to Warsaw, occupying and clearing Wegrow. Units held in reserve also rushed forward, pushing the Poles out of Lomza along the Pisa River. They also destroyed the Danish Mechanized Brigade in a running fight outside Ostrow Mazowiecka, and advanced as far as Ostroleka, also along the Pisa. In the Lakes area, the Russians crashed into the NATO lines, but were unable to break the line held by three Polish brigades and the battered 2-3 ID. Air support and attack helicopters were critical to this defense. The Russians did clear Bartoszyce, which was so ably defended by the Americans. This gave the Russians space to open the way for units to stream out of Kaliningrad. Things looked good for Russia…..

….And then the hammer fell. With roads clear of refugees, NATO was able to move a Spanish Mechanized Brigade to Ostrow Mazowiecka, shoring up the line after the destruction of the Danish brigade, and freeing up the 2nd ACR. This allowed for NATO to make its big play. It deployed the entire 101st Air Assault Division in an air assault to cut off the two Russian spearhead brigades at Ostroleka. Relieved by the Spanish, the 2nd Dragoons, Toujours Pret, joined the Screaming Eagles in an attack that also was supported by RAF Tornados and Divisional Apaches. It was a stunning success, and both Russian brigades were shattered. NATO is now in a strong position to exploit the situation. NATO also was successful around the lakes, waging a very successful counter attack outside Scyztno. The redoubtable US 2-3 BCT along with the Polish 25th Air Cavalry and a Polish mechanized brigade shattered two more Russian brigades. All and all, the Russians lost four maneuver brigades, along with the previously mentioned artillery brigade.

And the icing on the cake occurred when the USMC made their long-awaited amphibious assault on Russian-occupied Gotland Island. Supported by two squadron of USN Hornets and naval gunfire, the 22nd MEU stormed ashore, and shattered the Russian Naval Infantry brigade holding the island. Gotland is liberated, for the cost of a destroyed Marine battalion.

With more NATO forces moving into the line and NATO controlling the air, it is unclear how much longer Russia can press the offensive before having to shift to the defensive. The Russian General Staff has not yet used WMD, but an increasingly dire position will make them consider chemical weapons and/or tactical nuclear weapons next turn to regain momentum.

Lessons Learned: Patience is a virtue. NATO could have shuffled the 101st into the lines to steady it, but held them back for a big opportunity. With air supremacy in hand and the Russian IADS beaten down, the time was ripe for a bold move, which proved wildly successful. This was the first turn in the game where NATO was able to employ its preferred way of war, effectively integrating and converging attacks across multiple domains to take advantage of windows of opportunity presented. With NATO able to effectively range across the battle space with its heavy bombers and Fourth-Generation strike aircraft, Russia is in for a tough time. Ten days into the fight, and the Russians have a huge decision to make about using WMD. It’s scary how quickly this degenerated.

Turn 6

Turn 6 was eventful, fast, and furious. It was another contested initiative turn, which made for a fairly quick play. NATO maintains air supremacy, although what’s left of the Russian Aerospace Force gamely attempted to contest it. Unfortunately for Russia, NATO now has six squadrons of Fifth Generation fighters, including the first USAF Raptors, which easily swept aside the two Fulcrum squadrons the Russians have left. Russian SOF was very successful this turn, severely degrading NATO IADS. NATO SOF was less successful, but German and Polish SOF did damage two enemy headquarters. Growlers again successful knocked back the Russian IADS, which is so damaged that it will be difficult for Russia to repair it. NATO made a concerted effort in the strike phase to target Russian headquarters. They saved a quantity of TLAM and NATO missiles as a first wave, and then followed them up with a second wave of air strikes by USAF bombers. The result was the destruction of the 6th Combined Arms Army HQ and the 2nd Guards Tank Army, which were finished off by B-2s and BUFFS, respectively. 

The Russians did not deploy nuclear weapons this turn, but they did hit the NATO lines with three separate chemical attacks. The first was against the city of Minsk Mazowiecka, which is just east of Warsaw. It was held by the US 2-82 and the UK’s 3rd Battalion, The Parachute Regiment. The attack was beaten off, with a Russian brigade bloodied and the Red Devils destroyed. The second was against the Spanish holding Ostrow Mazowiecka. This attack also was blunted, although the Spanish 8th Airborne Brigade was destroyed in the fighting. The third occurred in the city of Mragowo in the lakes area, which was held by the Polish 34th Armored Brigade and its parent 11th Division Headquarters. The Russians were able to scrounge up some air support for the attack in the form of some Hinds and a squadron of Frogfoot. The chemical attack was very successful, and the Polish 34th and its 11th Division HQ were destroyed. The Russians are still trying to clear resistance in the city, though. The Russians also launched a heavy conventional attack against Olsztyn, but an able defense conducted by the Polish 2nd Reconnaissance Regiment and the Canadian Princess Patricia’s Canadian Light Infantry held the line, although the Poles were battered. The Russians affected a breakthrough, shooting two brigades through an opening south of the forests in the Lakes area. One, the 22nd Motorized Rifle Brigade, ranged as far west as Przasnysz, occupying the city and destroying one of the 82nd Airborne’s divisional Apache squadrons.

NATO’s turn was tough, but they recovered well from the chemical attacks, and contained the Russian breakthrough. In the south, newly arriving reinforcements entered the line and allowed NATO to counterattack after the chemical strikes. The US 1-82 and the Polish 21st Podhale Rifles, with plenty of support from Apaches and Strike Eagles destroyed a Russian Brigade just south of the Bug River. The Russians have nothing in this area to stop a push toward the Belarusian border and may have to scamper to the eastern bank of the Bug to stop a NATO thrust. The 101st Air Assault and the 2nd ACR beat up a Russian tank brigade and is closing on Russian-held Lomza. NATO contained the Russian breakthrough by shifting a Polish brigade west from the Bug, and bringing the newly arrived Belgian Light Brigade to the line. French and Italian units have formed a reserve line along the Grudziadz-Olsztynek road. Russia has a strong force poised to batter the NATO line held by the Polish 2nd Reconnaissance Reginent, the Princess Pats, and the beat up 2-3 BCT…..

….But, NATO had a major success along the coast, which threatens the whole Russian offensive and direct NATO attacks on Kaliningrad. A combined assault out of the Eblag area by the Polish 6th Airborne Brigade, the German 41st Panzergrenadier Brigade, the 31st Fallschirmjaegers, and the USMC’s 6th Regiment, supported by Bundeswehr Tiger attack helicopters and USN Hornets, broke the Russian lines. The German 26th Fallschirmjaeger Regiment and the US 1-3 BCT are in a strong position to screen the advance, with more units in tow. And the Marines have moved an ARG into the Kaliningrad inshore box and are ready to conduct an amphibious assault behind the Russian lines next turn. The Russians will soon have to choose between pressing the advance or shifting forces to defend an increasingly threatened Kaliningrad. And it’s unclear if NATO will respond with tactical nukes for Russia’s chemical attack.

Lessons Learned: The Center cannot hold if the shoulders crumble. NATO is poised to crumble both the northern and southern shoulders, which will place both Belarus and Kaliningrad at risk. NATO follow-on forces can press the fight for the exhausted Americans and Poles who have now held the lines for nearly two weeks. NATO’s control of the sea and air give true flexibility to their operations. Russia’s best option now is to hope for a UN ceasefire before it loses any position of advantage. It might only get there if it uses nuclear weapons, but after already using chemical weapons, NATO likely wouldn’t hesitate to conduct retaliatory strikes. Two minutes to midnight, indeed!

Next Time: Turns 7-8 and Final Report

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Previous Articles from Ian Sullivan:

“Poland is Not Yet Lost”: Playing Next War: Poland (Part 1)

China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam Series

A Hop, Skip, and an Amphibious Assault — Playing Next War: Taiwan Series