Ian M. Sullivan is the Special Advisor for Analysis and ISR at the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command.

Disclaimer: All views expressed in this post are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or Army Training and Doctrine Command

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We’re going back in time to October 2020, and the first time I played a Next War game, which was Next War: Poland. This game officially hooked me on the series, and I continue to play my way through them. This first, one, however, rekindled my interest in the hobby. This also was my first time writing about my gameplay, so I hope you enjoy this. I played the advanced rules, Tactical Surprise scenario, with the campaign starting in the Fall. I did not yet have the supplements, so no optional rules.

Game Turn 1

The Russians were able to occupy Vilnius and Riga, but the Estonians are still holding on in Tallinn. The Baltic States put up a good fight, actually destroying two Russian brigades in defending their homelands. The Russians will now be able to transition more forces against Poland in the next turn. In Poland, the 3rd of the 82nd Airborne retreated in good order after bloodying the Belorussians at Siemiatycze. They blew a bridge, which will canalize the advance toward Sokolow Podalski, where the other two BCTs of the division set a strong defense. The Polish 9th Reconnaissance Regiment still holds Bills Podalski, but is in danger of getting cut off. The 4th Guards Tank Division was able to occupy Bialystok, wrecking a Polish regiment in the process. The attack out of the Kaliningrad Exclave fared poorly, and is contained for the moment. The Poles were able to transport the 6th Para Brigade to reinforce the line, but there is no margin for error. NATO will try to rush units to the north, but throngs of internally displaced persons are making movement forward slow. The Second Stryker made it to Warsaw, and will try to reinforce the 82nd next turn. The 1st BCT of the Third ID mated up with prepositioned equipment at Powidz, and will immediately move North. The 101st Air Assault arrived in Germany, and in a stunning show of Allied solidarity, NATO already declared Article 5. Some German airborne forces immediately were made available to move to Poland.

Lessons learned. NATO can control the air, but thus far cannot dedicate enough air-to-mud sorties to make a real difference. The Russian A2/AD bubble is a tough nut to crack. I randomly decided (I asked my wife make the call) pre-game Russian moves, which meant they invaded Gotland but not Bornholm. Artillery is very formidable, and missile strikes were disappointing. SOF was important, but not decisive.

Game Turn 2

The air war went really well for NATO this turn. Six squadrons of enemy aircraft were destroyed, including two of precious fighters. The biggest win for NATO was the interception of a Russian strike package by USN F-35C, which eliminated an escorting wing of Foxhounds and two of Fencers. NATO lost nothing in the air, but a squadron of B-1 bombers was downed while attempting to strike IADS nodes. USAF B-2s hit Russian S-400 SAMs hard, but Russia replaced the two batteries, expending precious supply points in the process. SOF wasn’t much of a factor, although NATO had limited success against Russian IADS. NATO did really well at sea. A German SAG chased off a Russian SAG from the Southern Baltic, which opened the door for a massive entry of sea power into the Baltic. NATO reinforced Bornholm island with 40 Royal Marine Commando. NATO May be able to target Russian-occupied Gotland soon, and Russia can do little to stop it. Russia had only limited success on the ground. In The south, the Belarusians finally took Bielski Podalski, but at some cost. They lacked the combat power to cross the Bug River in force, however, where two BCTs of the 82nd Airborne remain ensconced at Sokolow Podalski. Forces streaming out of Kaliningrad pushed the Poles out of Braniewo, destroying the 9-16 Cavalry Brigade. The Russians still haven’t cleared the city, though. Tallinn, in Estonia finally was cleared by the Russians, opening the door to bring along more forces into Poland. NATO did little on the ground, but was able to shore up the line a bit, plugging elements of the 101st Air Assault and German Fallschirmjaegers into the line up north. The 1st BCT of the 3rd ID is struggling along roads still choked with IDPs. Both sides were reinforced this turn, with the Russian 41st Combined Arms Army entering the fight, and NATO receiving some shipborne US Marines, a German Panzer brigade, a Danish Mechanized brigade, and some Spanish paratroopers. 

Lessons learned: It takes time to organize attacks, particularly against units defending cities. There has been no real meeting engagements as of yet, and I’m guessing there won’t be until somebody is able to force a real breakthrough. The Russians really need those S-400s; The half a turn they were taken out gave NATO a much easier time in the air. Fifth Generation fighters really are a combat multiplier for NATO. Russia is struggling in the air. 

Game Turn 3

Game Turn 3 was a tough one for NATO. Although NATO continues to do well in the air-to-air fight, NATO air forces suffered some significant losses. Russia went Winchester on its missiles and concentrated its Spetsnaz units in an attempt to target NATO airbases, firing all its Iskander ballistic missiles and ALCMs at the NATO air defenses. Several bases were destroyed, and a squadron of Gripens and another of Mirage 2000s were destroyed on the ground. Further harming NATO’s cause, a squadron of USAF F-16 CJ were lost in an attack on the IADS. Two Polish squadrons also were lost to SAMs while conducting strikes. The Russians did lose a squadron of Backfires in an ill-advised attack on a US carrier, and one of Frogfoot in a strike. There also was a confused and swirling naval battle in the Southern Baltic, in which the Russians came out ahead, destroying a German SAG. The biggest NATO success was the destruction of the headquarters of the 2nd Guards Tank division in a strike by B-1Bs.

The Russians really got going on the ground. Several significant fights occurred this turn. The Belarusians still couldn’t dislodge the 82nd Airborne from Sokolow Podalski. However, they pivoted North, and with elements of the Russian 20th Guard Tanks advancing westward, caught the Poles at Zambrow in the flank. This opened the southern front and really weakened the NATO line. A combined Russian thrust succeeded in capturing the critical city of Suwalki, and coupled with a successful attack by the 106th Airborne on Goldap forced the Poles to a hasty retreat. They are trying to organize three brigades into a line to prevent a salient from forming. Three Polish brigades were lost in the fighting. On the Kaliningrad front, several swirling fights occurred around Bartoszyce and Paslek. The former was held by the 2nd BCT of the 3rd ID and the 173rd Airborne. The Sky Soldiers were bloodied in the defense, but the effort, which was bolstered by repeated ground support sorties by A-10s and AH-64s prevented a massive break through. Similarly, the 1st BCT of the 101st Airborne and the 1st BCT of the 3rd ID are holding the western edge of the line at Paslek. NATO held on, but has little depth, and a small opening exists in the center. Russia lost three more brigades, but can handle the losses better than NATO for the moment. The Russians added a whole combined arms army to Kaliningrad, which can do great damage if the line buckles. NATO is trying to get reinforcements forward in a race to stabilize the front. NATO will need its air forces bad next turn.

Lessons learned. NATO has won air superiority, but it hasn’t yet helped the ground fight. Russia truly is an artillery army with some tanks, as the separate artillery brigades and rocket artillery are really what shattered the lines. Indications and Warning truly matter; had Russia started with strategic surprise, the Russians likely would’ve been knocking on the doors of Warsaw by now. NATO’s line held, but there really is nothing in reserve at the moment. Fortunately, the IDP situation should be easier allowing NATO to rush arriving reinforcements forward.

Next Time: Turns 4-6

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Previous Articles from Ian Sullivan:

China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam Series

A Hop, Skip, and an Amphibious Assault — Playing Next War: Taiwan Series