In this article, Doug continues the orders of battle discussion by focusing on the air forces for the primary opponents and discusses the why of some of the decisions which were made. This is part one which details the air forces of the two protagonists, India and Pakistan. – Mitchell Land

The Air Forces of NWIP, Part 1

The advanced air system in the Next War series consists of individual aircraft units of approximately squadron size. So, generating a baseline order of battle simply requires knowing approximately how many of a given type of aircraft a country has in its inventory. However, most militaries only consider about 70% of any given type of aircraft in their inventory as “combat coded” and fully capable for combat, with the other 30% being used for training, backup inventory, or testing activities.

Beyond that rough calculation another important consideration is maintenance capability. Most nations could, with enough warning and resources, get most of their air forces into the air for a short period of time. After a few weeks (or less for many nations) the lack of capability to repair aircraft, and especially advanced engines, will result in a steady degradation in the number of aircraft available for combat.

In NWIP , both India and Pakistan appear to have limited maintenance capability for more than a few weeks. We do assume, however, that the United States/Russia and China would be providing significant technical and aircraft logistics support to India and Pakistan respectively even if they aren’t directly involved in the conflict. We also assume fairly short wars in NWIP , with the longest scenario being 12 turns (6 weeks). So, both sides get about 75-80% of their available aircraft represented in actual aircraft squadron counters.

The Indian Air Force

The Indian Air Force (IAF) has about 320 modern “4th Generation” aircraft, such as the Su-30 MKI, MiG-29, and Mirage 2000H, mixed with larger numbers of upgraded versions of much older aircraft, such as the Jaguar, Mig-27 ML, and MiG-21 Bison. The helicopter arm consists mostly of transport helicopters of various makes with about 130 attack helicopters, assuming current fielding plans proceed as expected.

Let’s first take a look at the most advanced aircraft in the IAF.

The Indians get four squadrons of Su-30s, 2 of Mirage 2000s, and 2 of MiG-29s. These eight squadrons are the core of the air superiority and strike force for the IAF. India has more than 220 Su-30s, but we assume that four operational squadrons (each of about 24 aircraft) is the most India would be able to commit to this part of the theater, with the rest operating in the far north (Aksai Chin) or far east (Arunachal Pradesh) where we assume the Chinese military will be either on the offensive or at least causing trouble in an effort to tie down Indian military assets [Potentially another series title! – MLL]. We also assume that some number of aircraft will be held back in a strategic reserve to provide air defense of the capital and other major cities in the event of a nuclear conflict. Two squadrons each of Mirage 2000 and MiG-29s would represent a maximum effort for those two upgraded, but still aging, portions of Indian’s inventory.

As for ratings, we give the Su-30 MKI a 5*-2-2 rating. The 5* air-to-air rating is the same one Su-30s get in other NW series games. Given the powerful radar and relatively advanced missiles available to the IAF (AA-12 and AA-11), we think that’s justified. The Indians also claim to conduct deep strike and more traditional close support bombing with these multirole aircraft, so they get two ratings in each category, although without standoff strike capability. These ratings are, however, lower than the 4*-3-4* ratings for the PRC Su-30s that are more capable ground attack / strike aircraft. Overall, these are the most capable aircraft in the IAF.

The MiG-29 is rated 4*-1-1 as it is in other games in the series. The MiG-29 is really a pure fighter aircraft with advanced air-to-air
missiles, but it does have some residual bomb-carrying capability reflected in the 1 rating for strike and combat support.

The Mirage 2000 was reportedly one of the IAF’s most effective bomber aircraft in the Kargil conflict due to its ability to use precision- guided munitions. It is rated 3*-2-3 in NWIP to reflect its primary mission as a strike aircraft. The 3* rating for air superiority is based on the fairly advanced French missiles and electronics in the Mirage 2000, especially the upgraded version just now coming into Indian service. Despite being primarily a strike aircraft, early in a major conflict it could be pressed into service as an air superiority fighter.

The rest of the IAF consists of very old (1970s, mostly) “3rd generation” aircraft like the ground attack Jaguar, the MiG-21 Bison, and the MiG-27 Flogger. All three are slowly being replaced by the indigenous “Tejas”, or Light Combat Aircraft, program.

In NWIP, the IAF gets three squadrons each of Jaguar and MiG-27 ground attack aircraft, with 4 squadrons each of MiG-21 and Tejas.

The Jaguar (rated 2-2-2) is a late 1960s design with short range, but it is still capable of carrying a decent bomb load in good weather. The MiG-27 (also rated 2-2-2) is a 1970s design with slightly better avionics and range, resulting in an all-weather rating and medium range. These six aircraft will provide the bulk of the combat support missions in NWIP .

The MiG-21 gets a 3-0-0 rating in NWIP (compared to a 2-0-0 in Next War: Korea ) due to the upgraded avionics, radar, and air-to-air missiles (like the AA-11). Based on after action reviews of exercises such as Cope India, the MiG-21 is, under the right conditions, still a potent dogfighting aircraft, so we think the 3 rating is the right one here.

While apparently an upgrade compared to all three of the older aircraft it is replacing, the first version of the Tejas is reportedly underpowered and equipped with a limited avionics suite compared to the future “block 2” version. Here we give it a 3*-1-1, which makes it somewhat useful for air superiority missions with its standoff and all-weather capability. The small size and payload of the initial version of the Tejas suggest minimal air-to-ground ratings.

A final aircraft in the IAF order of battle is the French Rafale multirole fighter, two squadrons of which are available if playing with an optional rule in NWIP .

Although in 2012 India announced plans to procure more than 100 Rafale aircraft, the deal has been on and off again several times since then. Most recently it is “sort of” on again with a commitment by India to procure 36 Rafale aircraft starting in 2016, with more orders to potentially follow later. If it is fielded in sizable numbers it will replace the aging MiG-29 and Mirage 2000 aircraft in the IAF, and it would provide a significant upgrade in all areas. We rate it here as a 4*-2-3* (comparable to later model US F-16C aircraft) since whatever the Indians field would be an export version available in limited numbers in the timeframe of NWIP .

The final element of the IAF represented in NWIP are attack helicopters:

The IAF’s helicopter modernization program has been, to say the least, haphazard and difficult to track over the last five years. For many years the IAF fielded only Mi-24 “Hind” attack helicopters. Then, in the 2000s, a decision was made to try to replace them with one or more indigenous designs more suited to high altitude flying. Several fits and starts seem to have finally resulted in the fielding of limited numbers of two small attack helicopters, the HAL “Rudra” and HAL “Light Attack Helicopter”. Both have limited weapons loads and high altitude performance, but they could probably provide combat support effectively enough. More recently, India finally inked a deal with the United States to procure up to 48 highly advanced AH-64 Apache attack helicopters. With their long range, high altitude performance, and advanced sensors these will give the IAF a major leap in deep strike capability.

In terms of numbers in NWIP , the IAF player only gets one of each type of helicopter. The reason for that is the limited numbers of each (probably only ~ 36 of each type will be operational in a couple years) and the need to support other fronts in India. Needless to say, three helicopters are a brittle force in a Next War series game where air defenses can hammer attack helicopters under most conditions, but, if used conservatively, they can provide crucial combat support and strike capability for the Indian side.

Total Indian Air Force order of battle for NWIP : 4 x SU-30, 2 x MiG-29, 2 x Mirage 2000, 3 x Jaguar, 3 x MiG-27, 4 x MiG-21, 4 x Tejas, 1 x LCH, 1 x Rudra, 1 x AH-64.

Indian Air Defense Network

A final issue related to the air war in NWIP is Indian air defense capability. In comparison to other integrated air defense networks modeled in Next War: Korea and Next War: Taiwan , such as those of North Korea, South Korea, Taiwan, and China, the best word to describe the Indian system is “limited”.

While the IAF does field some modern systems such as the “Akash” (range ~30km), “Barak 8” (range ~75km), and the short range
“Maitri” (range ~ 15km) systems, the overall SAM/Radar network does not appear to be tightly integrated or designed to provide comprehensive coverage of the entire nation. Most likely, it is designed to protect critical population centers and military infrastructure, with more limited coverage pushed forward toward border regions in a crisis. In addition, the difficult terrain of northwest India (especially the mountains) will limit any ground-based radar system’s ability to provide complete coverage and early warning.

The limitations of the Indian air defense network are reflected in four ways in NWIP . First, in most scenarios, the ratings start fairly low compared to other networks in the Next War series (Detect 4, SAM 3, AAA 1). Second, there are max values for all three ratings as shown on the counters (Detect 8, SAM 7, and AAA 2). Third, we increased the cost in supply points to upgrade air defense tracks [Note that this is a series change – MLL]. Finally, we reduced “local” AAA coverage to the AAA 1 column, which does not have an abort result. Overall, this limited defense networks puts a premium on achieving air superiority and having interceptors on call to counter Pakistani or Chinese strike aircraft. Of course, US intervention will provide both a lot more supply points that can be used to upgrade the network and interceptor aircraft. Finally, India does seem to have a bit of an edge in the number of airborne early warning aircraft it can field compared to Pakistan. However, these AEW aircraft are probably not tightly integrated with IAF aircraft or air defense
systems, so we think their impact will be limited.

The Pakistan Air Force

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is about half the size of the Indian Air Force. It has only about 150 modern 4th generation (or 4th-gen-“ish”) aircraft (76 US made F-16s, 53 Pakistani-Chinese JF-17s, and a small number of Chinese J-10s). Backing them up is a mixed bag of about 150 Mirage III/Mirage 5 of various makes and a large number (~180) of Chinese F-7P (a MiG-21 derivative), with the latter being phased out in favor of the JF-17s.

Given the disparity in size of the two air forces, in NWIP we assume the Pakistan Air Force would have to be “all in” not leaving many aircraft in reserve, operating elsewhere, or for training/testing. As a result, the Pakistan side in NWIP gets aircraft counters representing about 80% of the Pakistan fighter fleet, which we think is about the maximum output of aircraft Pakistan could keep in the fight for four to six weeks.

The most modern aircraft operated by Pakistan are the US F-16s (mostly older Block 15 “A/B” versions with a small number of more modern Block 25 and Block 52 “C/D” ones), the joint Pakistani-Chinese JF-17s, and (we are assuming in the near future) J-10s.

In game terms, we give the F-16s a rating of 4*-2-3. That is the same as US F-16s except for the lower combat support rating. That is partly for game balance but also because the two Pakistani F-16s in the game represent about three squadrons worth of aircraft. We give the JF-17 the same ratings it gets in NWT (4*-0-0). The JF-17 is really a jointly developed Pakistani-Chinese aircraft which derives many of its design features from the MiG-21 but with much upgraded avionics/weapons and a better engine. Finally, there is one Pakistani J-10 squadron in the game. The sale of J-10s to Pakistan has been on again, off again (somewhat like the French Rafale with India) but appears very likely to happen so we included it here. It also helps a bit with balance to give the Pakistanis a fighting chance in the air. It gets the same rating as the JF-17. While not as good as the Indian SU-30s, all three of these aircraft can hold their own against the best of the IAF in air superiority terms.  The larger share of the PAF is the 300 or so 1960s/1970s era mix of Mirage III, Mirage 5, and F-7s.

The “Mirage” counters represent both the air superiority focused Mirage III and the ground attack variant Mirage 5. There are four squadrons of Mirages and five of F-7s in the order of battle for Pakistan. As a result, they make up the bulk of the PAF. The Mirages, in particular, will see a lot of combat support work, while the F-7s help to provide a bit of depth to the PAF in the air superiority fight. Both have been equipped with fairly modern air-to-air missiles such as the American AIM-9L and Chinese provided equivalents like the Python 3 or AA-8.

Pakistan has a much smaller attack helicopter force than the IAF. While it has recently signed a deal to acquire additional and more modern versions of the AH-1 “Cobra”, overall its helicopter capability is quite limited (including in air transport). In NWIP , Pakistan gets one AH-1 unit and one airmobile point.

The overall Pakistan Air Force order of battle in NWIP is as follows: 2 x F-16, 3 x JF-17, 1 x J-10, 4 x Mirage, 5 x F-7, 1 x AH-1.

Pakistan Air Defense Network

Pakistan has an air defense system that is rapidly aging, not integrated, and, most likely, in very poor operational condition. It consists mostly of very old SA-2 Guideline systems with a smattering of more modern Chinese (HQ-9 variants) and French (MBDA Spada  2000) systems. However, it has the advantage of not having to cover as large a border as India, so we assume what systems Pakistan does have will be concentrated in the Punjab region as that is the focus of most combat in NWIP. As a result, Pakistan starts with similar game defense ratings as India (Detect 4, SAM 3, AAA 1) in most scenarios. If China intervenes these values can be increased, up to a limit (Detect 7, SAM 6, AAA 2) fairly quickly with the additional supply points China provides.

To be continued…

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Articles in this Series: Part 1  Part 2