Ian M. Sullivan is the Special Advisor for Analysis and ISR at the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command.

Disclaimer: All views expressed in this post are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or Army Training and Doctrine Command

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Turn 10

Although it’s raining here in the Virginia Tidewater, it’s another clear weather turn in Vietnam.  The situation changed dramatically, however, as it was the Allies who had the initiative, and they certainly made it count.

Allied SOF attacked first, and US SOF severely damaged the Chinese IADS network, pounding both SAMs and detection radars.  British SAS and US SOF also carried out effective raids against the HQ of the PLA’s 75th and 71st Group Armies, while Vietnamese SOF hit the S-300 site at Thai Nguyen.

The Allies also won the air superiority fight, as they were able to put aloft more than double the number of squadrons than were the Chinese.  Surprisingly, however, neither side was able to gain a cyber-edge. The Allies downed a squadron of J-10s and another of Su-30MKk2 Flankers, but did lose a squadron of USMC F-35C.   The Allies managed to chase off all other Chinese fighters and grabbed air superiority.

The fight at sea also went the Allies’ way.  USN submarines destroyed a PLAN SAG in the Gulf of Tonkin with SLCM.  The Chinese attempted to target a USN ARG, but only moderately damaged it with SLCM from a Type 093 SSN.  The Chinese nuke boat was destroyed, however by a lurking USN Virginia-class SSN.  The PLAN has essentially been reduced to a coastal defense force at this point, while the Allies’ maritime forces continue to grow.

The strike phase also went the way of the Allies, which conducted multiple cruise, ballistic missile and air strikes.  The S-300 site at Tuyen Quang was destroyed by TLAM and close-range ballistic missiles launched by the PAVN Supreme Headquarters, while the HQ of the PLA 75th Group Army was destroyed by a strike from USAF B-1 bombers.  Allied tactical aircraft ranged across the battlefield, striking multiple other targets.  Additionally, Growlers from two USN carriers wreaked havoc on the Chinese IADS.

The Allies went over on the offensive across the battlefield.  Out West, the US 82nd Airborne and the Australian 1st Division continued their attack on Phu Tho, destroying the PLA 37th Motorized Brigade and forcing its other defenders back.  The 1-82 and the 2nd Gurkhas liberated the city, while elements of both divisions continued the advance eastward; with the Aussies now flush against Jet Tri.

The Allies also continued the drive on Hanoi, and a well-supported assault by the III MEF, French 2nd Marine Parachute Regiment, and the PAVN 7th Division finally re-claimed the southern portion of the city, smashing the remnants of the PLAAF 133rd Airborne Brigade in the process.  III MEF and other elements of the PAVN IV Corps then shifted the target to two brigades of the 71st Group Army still south of the Red River.  The attack drove one brigade back across the River, while the battered remnants of PLA 35th Mechanized Brigade is holding the Red River Bridge.  It is the last unit the PLA now has on the south side of the Red River.

Attacking northwest, the 13th MEU and the PAVN 10th Division managed to drive two PLA Brigades from the 83rd Group Army back across the Duong River, although the 3/1 Marines were lost in the fighting.  The PLA now has no formations on the south side of that river, either.
The Allies also tried to break open the Haiphong front.  They inserted by air assault the 101st Air Assault Division along the coast, east of Uong Bi, in an effort to outflank the Chinese defenses of Uong Bi. In two joint, well-supported attacks, involving cyber support, Apaches, VNAF Hinds, and USAF A-10s and F-16s, the Screaming Eagles and the PAVN III Corps, which attacked across the Cam River, destroyed the PLAN 6th Marine Brigade and re-occupied Uong Bi, although the PAVN 31st Division was lost in the fighting.

The PLA 74th Group Army attempted to counterattack the 101st landing zones, but their attack was relatively unsuccessful.  The Allies reinforced the vulnerable 101st by inserting the USMC’s 11th MEU around Cam Pha, whose ports and airfield are again in Allied hands.  This attack closed off the coastal LOC for the Chinese invasion force, who now have only one road, the Hanoi-Jiangzhou road open as a supply line.

Lessons Learned:  Like a Rolling Stone.  The Allies were unstoppable this turn, and the Chinese are in a great deal of trouble.  With the initiative in hand, the Allies grabbed the Chinese by the belt and never let up on the attack. 

The US-Australian drive burst through one Chinese held city, and is about to link up with the Allied center around Hanoi.  The capture of Phu Tho was critical, and the Allies have three-plus brigades north of the Red River, as well as a full PAVN division attacking eastward.

The Allies were highly successful south of the Red River around Hanoi, utterly breaking China’s hold on the capital and basically claimed the Red River and Duong River as the main line of resistance.

Allied success against the Chinese IADS made the air assault by the 101st possible, and their timely assault opened the way for a bloody, but successful drive on Uong Bi.  The 74th Group Army can still contest this move, but it will be very difficult to do so with Allied air superiority.

China failed to win an automatic victory.  It’s best play at this movement would be a UN cease-fire.  With the Allies surging through the defensible ring of cities west of Hanoi and now ensconced along the coast, China has no real defensible terrain on which to anchor a defensive line unless it pulls back from the capital into the jungle.  Of course, they still have chemical and nuclear weapons…

Turn 11

Guess what?  The weather turned, the skies opened up, and we had a storm!  It made a real difference in the play of the turn, particularly in the air and at sea.

The SOF phase was moderately successful for the allies, with raids on two PLA headquarters causing some light damage, and a very punishing raid on the enemy IADS, which hit Chinese SAM sites very hard.

The air superiority phase ended with no losses, as both sides struggled with the difficult weather conditions.  However, the sheer number of Allied fighters aloft ensured that the Allies retained air superiority.

Very little happened at sea, as surface vessels sought shelter from the storm conditions, although the Allied silent service took advantage of the lack of sea control during the storm to move three USN submarines into the Gulf of Tonkin.

The strike phase was also hampered by the weather, but the US did manage to hit HQ of the 81st Group Army with TLAM and the 81st Group Army’s Rocket Brigade with ALCM.  Allied all-weather strike aircraft were the stars of the strike phase, though.  First, F-16DJ Wild Weasels pummeled the Chinese IADS.  In game terms, the Chinese SAM track is down to a level 2.  B-1B bombers hit the already damaged 81st Rocket Brigade in the open, and left it a smoking ruin.  Strike Eagles hit other PLA headquarters units, as well, causing moderate damage. The Chinese tried to strike elements of the 101st Air Assault Division outside Uong Bi, but the J-16s were chased off by SAM fire.

Again, with the initiative, the Allies pressed the attack in the bad weather.  The US 82nd Airborne the 2nd Gurkhas, and the 1st Australian Division continued their west-to-east attack, and launched two separate attempts to take Chinese-held Viet Tri.  In very heavy fighting, that was supported by cyber-attacks and air support; first from Australian, and then by USN Super Hornets, the combined attacks successfully evicted the Chinese defenders, and destroyed the PLA 123rd Mechanized Brigade in the process.  A second Allied attack on that front, which linked this drive to the Allied forces that relieved Hanoi—in the form of the USMC’s III MEF—hit the PLA 31st Mechanized Brigade, which was trying to hold the southern Red River Bridge, and crushed it.  This irrepressible attack by the All Americans, Aussies, and Gurkhas has shattered the Chinese right flank, and linked up with the Allied center.

A further major Allied victory came with an attack on two brigades of the PLA 71st Group Army by a joint force of the 101st Air Assault, the French Foreign Legion’s 13th Demi-Brigade, and the PAVN 320th Division just northeast of Uong Bi.  Supported by French cyber forces and USAF F-16s, this attack was highly successful, and the Allies obliterated the PLA 1st Amphibious Mechanized Brigade and the 154th Mechanized Brigade.  A subsequent push by the 1-101st and the 11th MEU successfully eliminated Chinese resistance in the port city of Ha Long, destroying an S-300 battalion and a supply depot in the process. The 3/7 Marines were, however, lost in the fight for Ha Long.  The 2-101st moved to secure the town of Mong Cai, which is right on the border with China.  It was the first town occupied by the Chinese on day one of their initial invasion.

The Chinese, facing utter disaster, used the storm to pull as many units as possible away from the FLOT to set up a secondary defensive line in the jungles north of Hanoi, and to prevent the cutting of their last LOC back to China.  They refused their right flank, which is now anchored by the city of Nguyen Thai, and still hold the key river crossings along the Red River outside Hanoi, and along the Duong River.  At this point, however, they seem like the boy with his fingers in a dam that is about to burst.

Lessons Learned:  “Come in she said I’ll give you, shelter from the storm.”  The first game turn with bad weather turned out to be highly interesting.  The effects of the weather were palpable, particularly in the air-to-air fight, where fighters, even sophisticated all-weather aircraft, struggled in the conditions.  The same was true at sea, where the navies went to port where they could. 

I closed my eyes and thought how miserable it would have been on the ground in the drenching rain, but the weather did not stop the Allies from continuing their drive.  They took Viet Tri and Ha Long, and won a smashing joint/combined victory north of Uong Bi.  The Chinese used the storm to try to form a semblance of a new defensive line, but it will be vulnerable to Allied pressure, particularly on their right flank.  I toyed with the idea of China using WMD, but the weather meant that I did not want risk it. 

If this were a real war, China would be jumping up and down at the UNSC calling for a cease-fire.  In fact, they probably would have done so several turns ago.  In the game, the die rolls just have not gone their way. Additionally, it is unclear if the Allies would accept one, although China has been severely punished in terms of battlefield losses. 

Turn 12

The storm continued this turn, which slowed, but by no means stopped the Allied attack.  The Chinese were resolute on the defensive, and the nuclear genie was let out of the bottle.

Allied SOF were very effective this turn against the Chinese IADS.  When combined with strikes by F-16DJ Wild Weasels, the Chinese IADS network was reduced to barely functional.  In game terms, they are down to a detection rating of 1 and a SAM rating of 2.  SOF also successfully raided the HQ of the 83rd Group Army.

The Air Superiority phase also was a wash, as both sides still struggled with the storm conditions.  Several squadrons on both sides were damaged, but none were destroyed.  The Allies did chase off most enemy fighters, and they now have earned air supremacy.

The strike phase was highly eventful.  First, US TLAM hit the Chinese airfield near Jiangzhou, destroying it, and a squadron of Z-10 helicopters based there.  The strike also inflicted collateral damage that destroyed squadrons of H-6 and JH-7 on the ground.  Allied strike aircraft also pounded several PLA headquarters units, as well as frontline Chinese maneuver units.  A strike by F-15Es against the PLA 178th Mechanized Brigade west of Hanoi was particularly effective.

The Chinese escalated the fight, however, by conducting a tactical nuclear strike against the USMC 31st MEU, which was at the juncture of the Cam and Duong Rivers.  The entire regiment—three battalions and it HQ—was instantaneously vaporized, and the war suddenly entered a new and deadly phase.

In light of the nuclear strike, France announced that it was withdrawing its forces from the war, and was pushing for an immediate UN cease-fire.  In spite of some internal pressures, the United States and Commonwealth forces decided to remain engaged in the conflict.  The Allies did not respond immediately with their own nuclear weapons, but their theater commander now has nuclear release authority.  The world will sweat out the Allied response.

In spite of the storm and nuclear strike, the Allies pressed their offensive across the front.  Elements of the Australian 1st Division and a significant PAVN force of two divisions and an armored brigade launched two attacks against Chinese-held Nguyen Thai.  The Chinese desperately clung to the city, and the assaults were costly to both sides.  The PLA was able to hold the city, but lost the 5th Mechanized brigade in the fight, as well as a squadron of J-16 fighter-bombers, which were bounced by USAF F-35s.

With forces surging across the Red River, and attacking out of Hanoi, the Allies’ 82nd Airborne, 3rd Australian Brigade, and the III MEF attacked the PLA 178th Brigade, which was holding right flank of the Chinese lines.  The weight of the attack, which was supported by USAF F-16s, crushed the Chinese brigade, and led to the crumbling of the entire Chinese front facing Hanoi. 

In spite of the nuclear attack, the Allies still pushed against the Chinese-held defense of the Duong River line.  Inserting by air assault the newly arrived 16th UK Airmobile Brigade and the 2nd Royal Australian Regiment, and pressing an attack across the river by the 13th MEU and the PAVN 273rd Armored Brigade that was supported by VNAF Su-30s and US cyber-attacks, the Allies caught the PLA 163rd Mechanized brigade from three directions, and destroyed it.  The Allies were able to exploit the attack to re-capture the Chinese occupied towns of Bac Giang and Bac Minh.

Finally, the US 101st Air Assault Division and the 11th MEU surged into the jungles and engaged two PLAN Marine Brigades, which defended a critical crossroads on the new left flank of the Chinese lines.  Two very difficult and bloody battles occurred.  The Chinese lost the 2nd Marine Brigade in the fighting, but continue to hold the crossroads.

For its part, the PLA continued its rapid withdrawal away from the Hanoi plains and into the jungles.  They still cling to Nguyen Thai, and are holding, for at least the moment, all of the roads leading to the jungles from Nguyen Thai to the critical Marine-held crossroads just south of the Chinese border. 

Two questions will dominate the next few turns:  Will we see more nuclear strikes? Will the Allies cross the border into China?

Lessons Learned:  You dropped the bomb on me, baby!  Yes, the Chinese went nuke, catching the 31st MEU in the open.  The ramifications of the attack are still not yet completely known, but the immediate effects were clear.  The rule about the major powers withdrawing from the fight is an interesting admission that this fight probably means more to China than it does to the Western Allies.  Surprisingly, only France withdrew, as I rolled a 1 and a 3 for the US and Commonwealth, when a 4 or more means they withdraw.   China’s limited nuclear attack was meant to drive out the combatants.  It basically failed.  China will now need to determine if more strikes are necessary, which increases the likelihood of a strategic exchange.

The Allies now need to determine whether they will respond, particularly as they get the first strike next turn.  A limited response would incur a VP penalty, but also would raise the stakes for more Chinese nuclear attacks, as each successive strike raises the chance of global thermonuclear war.

In spite of the nuclear attack and the continued bad weather, the Allied ground offensive has successfully ended the Chinese threat to Hanoi, and the PLA is in full retreat.  More Allied formations have arrived, including the entire US 25th Infantry Division and the I MEF, which are both slogging their way north along the road networks in the bad weather to join the fight. The PLA will be incapable of holding the Allied juggernaut off much longer, and the Allies even could cross the border into China, which almost certainly would lead to an even stronger Chinese response.

Next Time: Turn 13, Endgame, and Final Thoughts

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Previous Articles: 

China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam (Part 1)

China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam (Part 2)

China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam (Part 3)