Ian M. Sullivan is the Special Advisor for Analysis and ISR at the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command.

Disclaimer: All views expressed in this post are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or Army Training and Doctrine Command

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Turn 7

This turn was a seesaw battle that raged from the jungles of north-central Vietnam to the urban sprawl of Hanoi, and all the way out to the sunbaked Paracel Islands.  It was another contested initiative phase, and the weather, remarkably, was still clear (global warming, or weird die rolls, you decide).

Because of the contested initiative, we started with the air superiority fight.  Numbers were about even this round, but he Allies came out ahead, downing squadrons of J-11, J-8, and J-7, in return for a Malaysian Flanker squadron. Both sides were left with air units in play for intercept missions, which came into play later in the turn.

The SOF and strike phases were eventful.  China again hit airbases in Thailand and Vietnam with ballistic missiles, but caused only limited damage.  They followed these up with strikes by H-6 bombers against PAVN and Thai headquarters units southeast of Hanoi, but these were ineffective.  The Allies were much more effective, and conducted integrated strikes against Chinese targets with SOF, cruise missiles, and strike aircraft.  SOF were very successful against Chinese search radars, and damaged the Missile Brigades of the 83rd and 74th Group Armies, which were supporting the fighting around Uong Bi, as well as the S-300 battery defending the Chinese supply depot in occupied Yen Bai.  Air strikes by two squadrons of Guam-based B-52s destroyed the two rocket brigades, while a cruise missile strike finished off the S-300s.  B-2 bombers also attacked the S-300 battery at Lao Cal, right on the Vietnam-China border.  Additionally, USN F-35Cs struck the Chinese Marine brigade that was defending the Paracel Islands.

The maritime domain was relatively quiet, although the Allies moved in force into the South China Sea with a USN CVBG and the Philippines SAG, along with a US ARG embarking AH-1Z.  The III MEF, which liberated the Spratlys, loaded up onto an ARG, and landed in southern Vietnam, along with the rest of the 31st MEU.  Additional Allied naval units, including another ARG carrying the 13th MEU, a second CVN, and the French CVBG are set to enter the theater next turn.  The PLAN moved a SAG into the contested Tonkin Inshore, and was able to land another Marine Brigade at Cam Pha to support the drive on Uong Bi and Haiphong.

The Chinese were very aggressive in the ground combat phase.  They made a very tough decision to stop the clearing operations in Tuyen Quang and moved those units to deal with the growing Allied threat to Yen Bai.  First, they moved the 75th Group Army’s 122nd Mechanized position to block the Australian drive on Yen Bai, and shifted 127th Airborne Brigade to garrison occupied Yen Bai. 

The 81st Group Army finally succeeded in shattering PAVN resistance at Thai Nguyen.  They launched another all-out attack, supported by J-16s and Z-10s, and finally destroyed the hodgepodge of PAVN defenders, which included the 3rd Division and PSDF militia.  Two PLA brigades surged into the city, and successfully cleared it.  Thai Nguyen is now in Chinese hands.  However, freed of the need to participate in the defense of Thai Nguyen, the PAVN 316th Division and the 1MR HQ withdrew, and re-occupied Tuyen Quang after the Chinese departed.

The PLA 71st Group Army, also with heavy air support from J-16s and Z-10s initiated another attack against the northern portion of Hanoi.  The attack was moderately successful, and destroyed the remnants of the PAVN Hanoi Division, but PSDF militia are still holding on. 

The 75th Group Army conducted a desperate attack to relieve the isolated Airborne Corps formations in Southern Hanoi, hurling three brigades, supported by J-16s and Z-10s at the PAVN 309th Division, which was holding the Highway leading out of Hanoi that trapped the Chinese Airborne.  The attack succeeded, 309th was destroyed, and the Chinese Airborne units were relieved.  This was fortunate, as the Chinese Airborne were able to clear Hanoi, and occupy it south of the Red River.  The Chinese had one more success in that fight, as J-20 fighters bounced and eliminated a squadron of USAF F-16s that attempted to support the Vietnamese.

Finally, the Chinese 74th and 83rd Group Armies, with support from PLAN Marines, Z-10s and J-16s finally smashed the remaining PSDF defenders of Uong Bi, and two Chinese Marine Brigades entered the city, and cleared it of all resistance. 

Following a turn of more heavy losses, and fast running out of maneuver formations, the PAVN fell back from Hanoi to prepare a second defense line in the suburbs south and east of the capital, and around Haiphong, while still maintaining a defense of the capital.  Further offensive action may depend on the arrival of more Allied forces.

The Allies did launch two successful attacks, however.  The Australian 1st Division’s sweeping maneuver ran straight into the PLA 122nd Brigade southwest of Yen Bai.  The Aussies were supported by an airmobile insertion of the 2nd BCT of the US 82nd Airborne Division.  The 2/82 and the UK 2nd Gurkha Battalion were driven off by Chinese air defenses, and had to abort their landings.  Supported by US Apaches, Australian Tigers, USAF Warthogs, and heavy Commonwealth cyber support, the combined Australian-US attack smashed the 122nd, and the road to Yen Bai is now open to the Allies.

A second success occurred in the Paracels, as the Philippines Marines conducted an airmobile attack against the Chinese Marine Brigade holding the islands.  USMC Sea Cobras, USN Super Hornets, and US cyber warriors targeting Chinese C2 supported the attack.  The attack succeeded, and for the loss of one Philippines battalion, the Paracels were captured and cleared by the Allies.  The Allies also moved Malaysian airborne units to the Spratlys to fall in behind the departing III MEF. 

Lessons Learned:  “A battle is won by the side that is absolutely determined to win,” said Leo Tolstoy in War and Peace, and this truism keeps running through my mind as the game goes deeper.  The Chinese, and especially the Vietnamese, have suffered staggering losses thus far, but both have hope on the horizon if they continue to press.  The PLA cleared several cities this turn, and none was as important as the southern part of Hanoi.  This actually allowed China to roll for automatic victory, with their significant tally of VPs.  They failed this turn, but the possibility increases with each turn.  China actually can go on the defensive now, and force the Allies to bleed themselves trying to evict them from Vietnam.  China has suffered heavy losses to date, but still has a significant ground combat capability left, and can even still moderately contest the air. 

The PAVN is almost fought out.  It has very limited combat power left to do much more than try to hold on and wait for outside help, but it still will be very formidable on the defensive.  The Aussie-US left hook was a moderate success, but it will need reinforcing to make a telling difference. The Allies need to start chipping away at China’s VP lead, and they are starting to get the forces in play to do it.

Allied reinforcements are streaming into Vietnam, including the first part of the 101st Air Assault Division and two French regiments, along with the aforementioned US Marines.  A wave of USAF tactical aircraft also descended on Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam.  The Allies are getting stronger, but the Chinese have almost pounded Vietnam into submission.  The Chinese have a real chance for a “walk-off” win (I’m a big baseball fan…. Go Nats) if they can hold on to Hanoi for a few more turns.  Both sides can still prevail, if they set their minds to it. 

Turn 8

This was another contested initiative turn, and the weather was, you guessed it, clear.  I guess that is why they call it the dry season…

Both sides again put up about the same number of aircraft, but this time, the PLAAF got the best of the exchange, downing three squadrons of Allied fighters:  an Aussie F-35A, a USMC F/A-18, and a Malaysian F/A-18, for the loss of one PLAAF Finback.  Nevertheless, the Allies still retained the air advantage, as US fighters chased away several Chinese squadrons.

The SOF/strike phases went very badly for China.  The PLA’s last SOF unit was destroyed attacking the Allied IADS, and a wave of missile strikes and air raids by H-6 bombers caused only minimal damage to a PAVN headquarters.  The allies were much more successful, as their SOF hit Chinese IADS, the HQ of the 83rd Group Army, and the 71st Group Army’s rocket brigade.  Cruise missile strikes finished off the rocket brigade, while a strike by Guam-based B-2 bombers destroyed the S-300 battalion at Lao Cal.

The PLAN was able to get a detection on the US CVN operating in the South China Sea, and launched a massive operation aimed at killing it.  They launched a coordinated attack with DF-21 ballistic missiles, an air strike from the PLAN’s remaining carrier, and attacks by two submarines—a Kilo SS and a Type 041 SS—to take down the US carrier, but none of the attacks succeeded.  The battle ended up as a disaster for the PLAN, as three USN SSNs screening the carrier managed to sink both PLAN submarines, for no loss.  The USN attempted to conduct an air strike on a PLAN SAG in the Tonkin inshore area, but it was driven off.

After last turn’s frenetic pace, the Chinese conducted only a handful of operations designed to solidify their lines.  A combined attack by the 83rd and 81st Group armies destroyed a PAVN militia unit holding the town of Bac Ninh, and the PLA now holds two bridges across the Duong River.  They did lose a squadron of Z-10 helicopters, however to Aussie Hornets, which bounced them.

The 71st Group Army made another push for northwestern Hanoi, but the PSDF militia is still clinging to their positions.  The VNAF lost a squadron of Fitters who tried to support that fight, though.

The 75th Group Army advanced westward to address the threat posed by the US-Australian flanking movement.  The PLA sent four brigades against the HQ of the 82nd Airborne, but it was well positioned in jungle terrain to hold off the attack.  Support from US and Aussie attack helicopters, USAF A-10s, and US cyber support gave them enough firepower to survive a near disaster.

The PAVN essentially ordered their lines this turn, and conducted no offensive operations.  Several USMC units, and two attached French regiments are now moving to the front to reinforce the hard-pressed PAVN near Hanoi and Haiphong. 

The Allied drive on Yen Bai, however, was very successful.  After landing the 1-82 BCT and the 2nd Gurkhas by air assault, these units, along with Aussie 3rd and 7th Brigades launched an assault on Chinese-held Yen Bai.  The allies dedicated Apache and Tiger helicopters, an Australian F/A-18 Super Hornet, and Commonwealth cyber support to the attack, which succeeded in destroying the PLAAF 127th Airborne Brigade and a squadron of Z-10s, as well as capturing a Chinese supply depot.  The Allies now control Yen Bai, and have severed the Chinese east-west LOC, leaving only the two open to the north.

Lessons Learned:  The Pendulum (almost) swings.  The Allies had a strong turn, and if it were not for a terribly unlucky air superiority phase, they would have claimed the initiative.  As it stands, they won more victory points than the Chinese, and made a moderate dent in what had been a Chinese rout.  The Chinese were again able to roll for an automatic victory, but were unsuccessful.

The Chinese would like to finish off Hanoi, but its defenders are as dogged as ever.  Moreover, although the Allies did not attempt to relieve the capital, their combat power is growing.  The USMC III MEF could join the fight for Hanoi next turn, but faces the still potent PLA 71st Group Army, which shifted most of its units. South of the Red River to link up with the remaining PLAAF airborne brigades.  The USMC 31st MEU and attached French regiments could help bolster the Duong River line or reinforce Haiphong.

The Aussies, Gurkhas, and All-Americans form a potent force west of Hanoi, and pose a critical danger to the Chinese offensive.  The PLA has shifted its lines to deal with this threat, moving the still capable, but tired 75th Group Army to block its path.  The Chinese likely will attempt to turn Phu Tho and Viet Tri into defensive bastions to hold off this threat, but the Allies will increasingly be able to dedicate tactical air to support its ground attacks.

The battle is still up for grabs, but clearly will intensify in the next few turns. 

Turn 9

The Allies clearly were on the move.  The weather was again, you guessed it, clear.  I am guessing the Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore does not show up for wars, which is why we are continuing to have such good weather.  It was a contested initiative phase, but barely.

This time, the air superiority fight went to the Allies, who were able to put up double the number of fighters than the Chinese. They also received a nice surprise with a successful cyber-attack conducted against the PLAAF’s battle management systems.  Allied fighters downed PLAAF J-10 and J-11 squadrons, for no losses, and chased away most of the fighters the PLAAF committed to the battle.

The SOF and strike phases again were moderately successful for the Allies, who committed multiple squadrons to air-to-mud missions.  The most successful missions included strikes by B-52s, which severely damaged the HQ of the PLA 75th Group Army and another by Strike Eagles that damaged the HQ of the 74th Group Army.

The fight at sea was brutal this turn, namely because the Allies were able to get a point detection against the Chinese Carrier in the Gulf of Tonkin, and the PLAN received a point detection on a French carrier and an area detection on a USN CVBG, both operating in the South China Sea.  The PLAN struck first, choosing to go after the French carrier, on which they had better firing solutions.  The first attack came from DF-21s, which damaged the carrier.  The second came from SLCMs launched by a Type 093 SSN, which crippled it.  The DeGaulle was then sent to the bottom by a strike from two squadrons of H-6 Badgers.  The allies, however, quickly avenged the loss, and USN Virginia- and Los-Angeles-class SSNs sent waves of SLCMs against the Shandong, which destroyed it, and with it, the PLAN’s last carrier.

The ground fight also was fierce this turn.  The PLA tried two desperate attacks against Vietnamese-controlled Hanoi.  The 71st Group Army and the Airborne Corps launched yet another attack against the PSDF militia holding the northwest part of the capital.  The militia buckled, but managed to cling to the city, namely due to the support of PAVN cyber-attacks against Chinese C2.  The PLA lost the 179th Motorized Brigade while trying to storm the city, and a squadron of Badgers, which were splashed by Thai Vipers. 

The PLA 81st and 83rd Group Armies tried to force their way into Northeast Hanoi, throwing four brigades at the two PAVN divisions holding the city.  Like the other PLA assault, it too bent the PAVN lines, but were unable to break through in the face of determined Vietnamese resistance.  Although the PAVN 350th Division suffered losses, the PLAAF lost a squadron of J-16s to VNAF Su-30s, which successfully intercepted them.

The Allies then went on the offensive.  The 3-82 was inserted south of the Red River, across from Chinese-held Phu Tho.  It was joined by 2-82, 1-82 and the 2nd Gurkhas, who advanced across the Red River and closed on Phu Tho from the other bank. The 1st and 7th Australian Brigades advanced along the Red River Bridge, which the PLA left intact.  Supported by Apaches, Tigers, Warthogs, cyber, and the divisional artillery from the 82nd and 1st Australian Divisions, the Allies hurled themselves against the city from three directions.  The PLA managed to hold on, but they did lose the 32nd Motorized Brigade in the attack.  The Allies lost a squadron of Australian Tiger helicopters in the fight.

A second Allied attack was made targeting Chinese-held Hanoi.  A mixed force consisting of the USMC’s III MEF, (the conquerors of the Spratlys), the French 2nd Marine Parachute Regiment, and the PAVN 7th Division attacked the two PLAAF Airborne regiments holding southeast Hanoi.  This attack was supported by US cyber-attacks, USMC AH-1Z, Apaches from the 101st Air Assault Division, and USAF Warthogs.  The attack was successful, the 134th Airborne Brigade was destroyed, and the 133rd roughly handled, although they are still clinging—by their fingernails—to Hanoi. 

Lessons Learned:  The end of the beginning?  Turn 8 was a short turn, but represented something of a turning point in the fight.  China tried one more push to take more of Hanoi, but could not break through.  It may have represented their last chance to do so, as it is now clinging to its positions south of the Red River in the face of a resurgent Allied force. 

The Allies this turn began cutting into the Chinese lodgment around the capital.  The Joint US-Australian drive is threatening to roll up the Chinese right flank, although they still have the combat power to contest this Allied advance.  By converging multi-domain capabilities so effectively, however, the Allies made rapid gains, and are likely to push the Chinese out of Phu Tho next turn.

A more audacious offensive was the USMC-French-Vietnamese drive on Chinese-occupied Hanoi.  Where the Chinese had to rely on massing combat power, the Allies are using multi-domain attacks, and are taking advantage of the edge in troop quality they have with the US and French Marines to roll back the Chinese.  Although they did not take back Hanoi this turn, they very likely will next turn.

Allied gains are likely to come fast and furious next turn, as they succeeded in taking the initiative for the first time in the game.  The Allies also put a gaping dent in the Chinese VP lead, which are now under 100.  The Chinese likely will get one more roll for an automatic victory before the Allied offensive starts rolling them back.

Next Time: Turns 10-12

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Previous Articles: 

China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam (Part 1)

China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam (Part 2)