Ian M. Sullivan is the Special Advisor for Analysis and ISR at the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command.

Disclaimer: All views expressed in this post are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or Army Training and Doctrine Command

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Turn 4

We had the first non-clear weather turn, with overcast conditions in effect.  The PLA had some success targeting the Allied IADS with their SOF, but they also lost a SOF group in an attack on the Thanh Hoa Airbase.  Allied SOF also had some success against enemy IADS, including one very damaging attack against the mainland China S-300 complex by US SOF.  The SOF fight is clearly going the Allies’ way, with the PLA down to only two operational groups.

The fight in the air again was contested, although the Allies came off better in the fight.  The PLAAF put up more aircraft, but high quality US fifth Generation fighters chased off and damaged several squadrons of Flankers.  A squadron of USAF Vipers also splashed a PLAAF Su-35 squadron.

The fight at sea was very eventful.  Having detected a Philippines amphibious squadron carrying elements of its Marine brigade en route to an amphibious assault on the Spratlys, the PLAN pounced.  It first damaged it with a strike by DF-21 ballistic missiles.  It then launched an air strike by carrier based J-15s, which caused further damage.  The coup de grace was administered by a Type 093 SSN, which killed it with a SLCM.  The Allies, however, were able to get some revenge by killing the Type 093. 

The Allied naval forces did not sit idly by and sprang into action.  Having detected a PLAN CVG in the South China Sea, they made a concerted effort to take her down.  The first strike came from a USN Virginia-class SSN, which hit it hard with SLCMs.  USN Super Hornets and Growlers flying off the US CVN then joined the fray, and sent the Chinese carrier to the bottom.

The 81st Group Army had no luck in its effort to break through PAVN lines at Nguyen Thai.  It threw its entire weight of combat power, along with air and helicopter support into the attack.  Recognizing that this defense was critical to keeping the 81st from reinforcing the thrust against Hanoi, the VNAF managed to scrape up a squadron of Fitters to provide air support to the defense.  The Chinese attack was stopped cold, and the PLA lost the 90th Motorized Brigade in the fighting.

South of Hanoi, the PLA Airborne Corps attacked southward against the PAVN 407th Armored Brigade, destroying it.  The 83rd Group Army assaulted the western side of Hanoi from three directions.  The Chinese dedicated significant air support to the effort in the guise of Z-10 attack helicopters and J-16 fighter-bombers.  They also dedicated cyber support to the attack.  For its part, the PAVN also dedicated cyber support to the defense of the capital, and the USAF flew combat support with A-10s.  The Chinese attack failed, and the PLA lost the 91st Mechanized Brigade in the fight.

The 74th Group Army attempted again to break the PAVN hold on Uong Bi conducting an assault on the city from three sides.  It also was supported by Z-10s and J-16s, but they were chased off by the Allied IADS.  US cyber warriors targeted the 74th’s  C2, which provided a major advantage to the PAVN defenders.  The city held, and the PLA lost the 132nd Motorized Brigade in the attack.

Buoyed by their ability to hold off the PLA, the Allies counter attacked on several fronts.  The Thai 2nd Army joined the fight southwest of Hanoi and hit the Chinese right flank, which was held by two brigades of the Airborne Corps. An intense, back and forth fight between the Thai forces and elements of the PLAAF Airborne Corps and the PLA 75th Group Army led to the destruction of two PLA brigades and two Thai Infantry Divisions, but the Thai attack forced the PLA back, and ended the encirclement of the capital.  The PAVN 82nd Infantry Division moved into the gap caused by the Thai attack, and now holds the exit point of the Hanoi-Phu Ly road.

The PAVN 228th Armored Brigade saw an opportunity to strike at the weakened PLA 83rd Group Army’s 3rd Motorized Brigade, which was holding the easternmost bridge across the Duong River held by the Chinese.  The 228th surged out of Hai Duong, and destroyed the PLA 3rd, but was itself destroyed in a Chinese counterattack. 

Finally, the newly arrived PAVN III Corps entered the fight, and two of its divisions smashed into the PLA 86th Mechanized Brigade, which was holding the southeastern edge of the 83rd Group Army’s ring around Hanoi, and overran it.  Furthermore, the PAVN 350th Division moved into a gap in the 83rd’s lines and re-captured the exit point of The Hanoi-Thai Nguyen highway.  The 83rd Group Army is now down to only two maneuver brigades, and is in a perilous position.  It likely will need to withdraw to hold the flank of 74th Group Army’s drive on Haiphong. 

Lessons Learned:  Modern Combat is Fast and Furious.  This turn really had it all, and it demonstrated the speed of modern combat.  From a critical air superiority fight, to major naval action, and then a punishing series of fights on the ground, what was apparent is that this type of combat is lethal and dynamic.  The contested air superiority phase affected China’s efforts on the land and sea, and the arrival of additional USAF and now USMC aircraft will further complicate China’s plans.  The destruction of the Philippines amphibious squadron again demonstrated the vulnerability of surface ships to land-based missiles.  Similarly, the destruction of the Chinese CV demonstrated the lethality of USN submarines.

The Allies also are winning the SOF and cyber fights, which had a real impact this turn. One of the S-300s on the mainland is now down, largely due to SOF raids, and cyber-attacks made a huge difference in the fight for Uong Bi.  With the punishment the Chinese have taken thus far, particularly losses to its 83rd Group Army, the drive on Hanoi is now at risk.   Nevertheless, China has a massive advantage in Victory Points, and even if it goes on the defensive, the PAVN would be hard pressed to go on the offensive.  Its largely leg infantry forces are ideal for holding cities and difficult terrain, but are much less suited for the attack.  The losses suffered thus far have been staggering, particularly for the PAVN.  A quick victory for either side seems more in doubt at this point, although the PLA’s 71st Group Army is now set to join the fight.  The PLA failed, however, to retain the overall initiative, and next turn will be contested.

Turn 5

This was the first contested initiative turn, so it played rather quick.  If turn 4 was dynamic, turn 5 was plodding, but both sides were able to make some gains.

The air superiority phase went to the Allies, who gained Air Advantage, even though losses were essentially even.  The Chinese lost a squadron of J-10s and another of J-7s.  The Allies lost a USAF F-15C and a Malaysian MiG-29, although both of these units, as well as the PLAAF Fishbed, already were damaged.  The Allies chased off most of the other PLAAF fighters, though.

The SOF and strike phases were unsuccessful for China, while the Allies did better.  The Chinese targeted the Allied IADS with their two remaining SOF groups, but neither attack succeeded.  Similarly, the PLARF launched five ballistic missile strikes, including one at Thai airbases and another against the Philippines, as well as three more against air bases in Vietnam.  Only one hit the target, and a Thai airbase was lightly damaged.  The Allies were more successful.  Vietnamese and Malaysian SOF hit the IADS hard, including inflicting heavy damage against mainland China’s S-300s.  The S-300s were destroyed by a follow-up ALCM strike conducted by USAF B-52s.  Allied bombers also pounded two PLA headquarters units around Hanoi, while USN and USMC strike aircraft hit the PLAN Marine garrison in the Spratly Islands.

The most significant move at sea was the joint US-Philippines amphibious assault against the Spratlys.  A USN ARG landed the entire USMC III MEF, which stormed ashore against two powerful PLAN Marine brigades.  A SAG from the Philippines Navy also supported the attack.  The PLAN launched naval air and SLCM against a Vietnamese SAG operating inshore Tonkin, and damaged it.  They then attempted to move two Marine brigades by sea to the captured port of Cam Pha, but only one was able to run the gauntlet, which included a Vietnamese Kilo SS and a heavy belt of naval mines.  A PLAN Kilo SS also placed naval mines inshore of the Paracels Islands, and withdrew a Marine Brigade from the Paracels back to the mainland.

The fight on the ground was much more deliberate this turn.  The PLA 75th Group Army still is fighting to clear Tuyen Quang of insurgent fighters.  This hard city fight has held two brigades of needed PLA forces back from the fight for Hanoi for two turns now.  Although they did not attack Hanoi proper this turn, a joint attack by the 75th Group Army and the PLAAF Airborne Corps, supported by Z-10s and J-16s, destroyed the PAVN 82nd Division, which was holding the road leading through rice paddy field southwest of the capital.  The 37th Motorized Brigade extended the PLA ring on the south bank of the Red River.  The Thai 3rd Armored Division subsequently tried to counterattack the 37th, but it was hurled back with much prejudice.

The 81st Group Army tried again to attack Thai Nguyen.  It threw five brigades, supported by two squadrons of Z-10s and one of Su-30MKk2s at the Vietnamese defenders.  The VNAF was able to support the attack with a squadron of Fitters.  The USAF F-16 squadron flying out of Thailand intercepted the PLAAF Flankers, and they destroyed them.  Those Viper pilots are the hottest pilots of the war, and are by themselves responsible for destroying four squadron of Chinese aircraft, including two this turn!  (They also downed the J-10s in the turn’s air superiority phase).  In spite of this success, the Chinese attack was moderately successful, and the PAVN lost the 346th Division in the fight.  They still cling to the city, though.

As expected, the remnants of the PLA’s 83rd Group Army pulled back from Hanoi, and now are holding the right flank—two key bridges across the Thai Binh River—of the 74th Group Army’s drive on Haiphong.  The 74th, reinforced by the newly landed PLAN 2nd Marine Brigade, fires from its and the 83rd Group Army’s rocket brigade, as well as Z-10, J-16, and H-6 aircraft, again hit Uong Bi.  The PAVN defenders—two divisions—were supported by USAF Warthogs. The fight went the Chinese way, and the PAVN 312th Division was destroyed, along with a Chinese brigade, but the Vietnamese still hold the city.

The fight for the Spratlys also was grueling.  USN Rhinos, USMC Sea Cobras, and naval gunfire from escorting USN ships and a Philippines SAG, as well as heavy cyber support amply supported the US Marines.  The Initial attack went well for the Marines, who secured a lodgment and destroyed the PLAN 1st Marine Brigade.  The fight for the Spratlys is still ongoing, but it is trending toward the US Marines.

Lessons Learned:  A new phase.  This was a grueling turn and likely represents a new phase of the war.  Chinese attacks were deliberate, but provided much needed moderate success.  It is not clear how much longer the Vietnamese can hold on to Thai Nguyen, whose dogged defense really has stalled the Chinese advance on Hanoi.  Similarly, the defense of Uong Bi has done the same for the drive on Haiphong. 

A major gap exists right now in The Chinese lines, but the Allies do not quite have the combat power to exploit it. 

Help is on the way for both sides.  For the Chinese, the powerful 71st Group Army is advancing along Honghe-Hanoi road.  Its weight could give the Chinese a renewed opportunity to take Hanoi, which would be greatly assisted if the 81st Group Army could break PAVN resistance at Thai Nguyen.  For the Allies, the PAVN IV Corps is arriving from the south, which could have exploited the seam in the Chinese lines if it were more mobile.   However, more ominously for the Chinese, the 1st BCT of the US Army’s 82nd Airborne Division landed at Thanh Hoa Airbase, while the 1st Australian Division and a UK Gurkha battalion landed in southern Vietnam, and will soon join the fight.

China took back the initiative this turn, and will drive the conflict by deciding how to employ the 71st Group Army.  It has two options; drive on Hanoi, or bypass it, and drive for the coast to conduct a wide sweeping maneuver to encircle both Hanoi and Haiphong. 

Turn 6

This turn was a doozy!  It had Clear weather, and was a Chinese initiative turn.  Chinese SOF was again ineffective, but Allied SOF did much better, damaging several Chinese air bases and destroying a squadron of J-10 fighters on the ground.

The air fight again went the Allies way, and they downed three squadrons of J-11 Flankers for the loss of one squadron of Thai Gripens.  The Allies continue to hold the Air Advantage, and the AWACS advantage is now even.

The Chinese launched a wave of strikes this turn with cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.  They hit the HQ of the PAVN I Corps very hard with cruise missiles and pounded away at airfields in Thailand and the Philippines.  A squadron of USAF F-15Cs was destroyed on the ground in one strike.  Additional strikes, from a PLAN Type 093 SSN and carrier-based strike aircraft sank a Vietnamese SAG in the Tonkin inshore littoral.  The US countered with cruise missile strikes against Chinese airbases, which destroyed a squadron of Finbacks on the ground.  Furthermore, a squadron of B-52s flew a strike mission into North Vietnam for the first time since the Linebacker II strikes of 1972.  This time, it was to aid the Vietnamese, and the Buffs caught the 75th Group Army’s Rocket Brigade in the open, and utterly pulverized it.

The ground fight centered on Hanoi, as the 71st Group Army surged to the front and launched a major assault on the northwest part of the city.  It was repulsed, but the powerful PAVN Hanoi Division took serious losses.  The PLAAF lost another squadron of J-11 that were escorting combat support aircraft in a fight with VNAF Su-30s, which bounced them.  The Airborne Corps and the 71st Group Army had the most success, and they broke PAVN resistance on the southern part of the capital, destroying the PAVN 405th Armored Brigade and the Marine Armored Battalion in the process.  The PLA Airborne Brigades entered the capital, but were unable to clear it in the face of intense urban guerrilla resistance.

The PAVN launched a furious counterattack to relieve the capital with its IV Corps and the Thai 2nd Armored Division.  Attacking up the HOA Binh-Hanoi road, the PAVN 9th division and 22nd Armored Brigade caught the PLAAF Airborne Corps HQ alone, and destroyed it.  Two more PAVN Divisions attacked two PLA brigades holding the flank of the move into the capital.  Attacking across the rice paddies south of the city, the PAVN pushed back a PLA brigade and destroyed the 131st Airborne Brigade.  The Thai 2nd Armored, however, was lost in the fighting.  The result of the counterattack was the encirclement of the PLAAF airborne brigades that entered Hanoi.  They are now isolated, but still hold on.

North of the Red River, the PLA still has been unable to clear Tuyen Quang from militia insurgents.  The 81st Group Army launched another attack on Thai Nguyen, losing a mechanized brigade in the process, but the PAVN division defending the city was forced back.  The PAVN still holds the city, but its resistance clearly is faltering. 

Along the coast, the 74th Group Army launched another attack on Uong Bi.  The attack was reinforced by the PLAN 5th Marine Brigade, which ran the gauntlet of naval mines and submarines, and arrived at Cam Pha. The attack crushed the PAVN 390th Division, but PSDF militia still hold on. 

In the Spratlys, the USMC III MEF finished off the Chinese defenders and successfully claimed the Islands for the Allies, although the 3/3 Marines were destroyed in the fighting. USN Rhinos, USMC Hornets flying out of the Philippines, Sea Cobras, Naval gunfire, and cyber support, supported the Marines.  The attack on the Spratlys may have been the most multi-domain operation ever launched by the US military.

Lessons Learned:  Cry Havoc and let slip multi-domain operations!  This turn was marked by a curious turn of events.  Each side had a major success that was predicated on their ability to converge multi domain effects.  The Chinese fight for Hanoi was marked by two set piece attacks that converged fixed- and rotary-wing air support, ground based fires, and ground combat forces.  This led to the advance into the capital by the Airborne Corps.  For the Allies, the fight for the Spratlys, which was as multi-domain as they come.  These types of operations are essential for attacking well-defended urban centers, or carrying out successful amphibious assaults.

However, maneuver warfare also still can make a difference.  The PAVN attack south of Hanoi demonstrated that good old-fashioned maneuver warfare, leading to furious meeting engagements, still matter on the lethal multi-domain battlefield.

Let us also tip our caps to the Vietnamese PSDF militia.  They are making China’s life a living hell in the cities it occupies, and the PLA has been unable to clear multiple cities in the face of their resistance.  Of course, I drew a 4 for the PLA clearing effort at Tuyen Quang and a 3 for southern Hanoi…

Maneuver is likely to play a big part of next turn.  The 1st Australian Division has moved east along the jungle roads, and may be in a position to threaten the Chinese right.  Part of the US 82nd Airborne Division may be in a position to join them.  However, even if successful, China still would be able to support the attack with their supply lines to the north.  This fight may just be getting started. 

Next Time: Turns 7-9

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