Ian M. Sullivan is the Special Advisor for Analysis and ISR at the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command.

Disclaimer: All views expressed in this post are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or Army Training and Doctrine Command

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Okay, just finished setting up Next War: Vietnam. This time, I am playing the Strategic Surprise scenario in the Dry Season. Because I always enjoy playing as much of the game as possible, I choose to play the US, France, and Commonwealth at Participation Level 4 (full intervention.) The PRC also decided to initiate a broader South China Sea conflict, and occupied both the Spratlys and Paracels in pre-game coups de main. The Philippines and Malaysia sided with the Allies. Indonesia is staying neutral. Thailand, pressured initially by US diplomacy to allow the Allies access to U-Tapao Airbase, decided that after the decisions by Manila and Kuala Lumpur to side with the Allies, Bangkok also would be in for a penny, in for a pound, and joined with the Allies. I also am using the submarine rules, the cyber rules, and the additional S-300/Patriot rules from Supplement 1.

Furthermore, I will be playing a hybrid version of the rules I created for the Chinese DF-21/DF-26 ballistic missiles. As Next War: Vietnam (unlike Taiwan) gives the PLARF ballistic missiles, I’ve decided that any two ballistic missile launches a turn can be DF-21/DF-26, which can target maneuvering warships or reportedly, targets out to Guam. This allows China to use these missiles and/or cruise missiles against targets on the strategic map. Attacks against CVBGs or amphibious assault ships receive no modifier. Attacks against SAGs get a +2, as they are intended to hit larger ships. These missiles strike on the SCUD column vs. land targets and the Naval 4 column against ships. I also give US targets a further +1 modifier for the AEGIS radars and SM-6 SAMs carried by USN cruisers and destroyers.

Turn 1

After a period of increased tensions and the sinking of a Chinese “fishing vessel” by the Vietnamese Coast Guard in the Gulf of Tonkin, the PLA initiated a lightning attack against the Socialist Republic of Vietnam. The initial strike included a barrage of cruise and ballistic missiles, which targeted Vietnamese air bases and ports. This was followed by a well-planned series of Special Operations raids, which in addition to targeting infrastructure, also targeted the Vietnamese integrated air defense system (IADS), which was hit very hard. A round of air strikes followed these by PLAAF strike aircraft. The airbase at Yen Bai and the airstrip at Dien Bien Phu were destroyed in these strikes, and a subsequent round of missile strikes, which also wrecked a squadron of Vietnamese Fitters on the ground. The second round of missile strikes also hit airbases in Thailand, as Bangkok sided with Hanoi in this conflict.

The PLAAF dominated the fight in the air. They had a significant advantage in quantity and quality over their regional foes, and were able to put up more than double their enemy’s numbers of fighters in an air superiority role. Although VNAF Flankers are good aircraft, the PLAAF 5th Generation fighters made a difference. Both sides attempted to support this fight with cyber capabilities, but neither gained advantage. The PLAAF chased off most enemy fighters, damaging a squadron of Vietnamese Su-30s and a Thai F-16, while also destroying another squadron of Vietnamese Flankers.

Very little happened at sea. A powerful PLAN Task Force consisting of a CVBG and a SAG is operating in the South China Sea. The Philippines attempted to strike the SAG with its shore-based Brahmos cruise missiles, but the strike was ineffective. The only other naval issue of note was the deployment of a naval minefield by a Vietnamese Kilo SS in the Tonkin Inshore area. 

The PLA then surged across the border in three separate columns, each pointing in the general direction of Hanoi. The 75th Group Army attacked southeast along the Honghe-Hanoi road. It was clearly the most successful of the three columns. Its 122nd and 123rd Mechanized Brigades were supported by an airborne assault by the 127th Airborne Brigade, struck the PAVN 325th Division, which was holding the border town of Lao Cai. The PLA tried to drop a second airborne brigade, but it was aborted by Vietnamese air defenses. This attack was supported by attack helicopters and H-6 Badgers, as well as artillery and rocket fire. The 325th never had a chance, and was completely overrun and destroyed. 

This opened the way for a rapid advance by the 75th Group Army, which swept aside all resistance, and even occupied the city of Yen Bai. The 75th tried to push across the Red River, and even dropped two airborne brigades outside Phu Tho, but the PAVN was able to hold on, and those Chinese airborne brigades are now isolated on the wrong side of the river.

The 83rd Group Army smashed its way southwest along the Jiangzho-Hanoi road.  Its leading brigades first engaged a defending PAVN division at the border town of Dong Dang, forcing it back to Lang Son. A second thrust, supported by attack helicopters, H-6 Badgers, artillery, battlefield rockets, and a successful cyber-attack against PAVN C2 led to its destruction and forced back the 306th Division. Two PLA brigades are now ensconced in Lang Son.

The 74th Group Army divided its brigades along two road networks; one along the coast and another to the northwest, where the 163rd Mechanized Brigade pushed through a PAVN combat outpost and surged across the border, with two other brigades in trail. Along the coast, the 1st Amphibious Mechanized Brigade and the 154th Mechanized, supported by Z-10 attack helicopters, Badgers, artillery, and MRLs, smashed the PAVN’s 203rd Armored Brigade, which attempted to screen the border. Their advance stopped at a crossroads defended by the PAVN’s powerful 304th Mechanized Division.

Stunned by the ferocity of the Chinese attack, the PAVN is struggling to contain the Chinese thrusts. They were able to rush an armored brigade forward to hold the Red River crossing at Phu Tho, but a gap in their lines may offer a direct approach to Hanoi if the 83rd Group Army can sweep aside weakened elements of the PAVN II Corps. The best news the Allies had was that the USAF was able to deploy forces from Japan to the Philippines and Thailand, but they will not be able to enter the fight until turn three.

Lessons Learned:  Strategic surprise is a different animal.  My recent experience with Next War: Poland and Next War: Taiwan showed the importance of the competition and crisis periods, where NATO and the Allies had at least a modicum of forces on hand to contest the initial Russian/Chinese advance. Not this time, and it showed. Although a large force, PAVN divisions could not stand up to the power of a well-supported PLA Group Army, even when holding defensible terrain. The PLA group army is a very capable and flexible organization.

The PLAAF made a huge difference. It swept aside VNAF and Allied fighters to gain air supremacy.  At least for a turn, the PLA enjoyed true multi-domain ascendancy, and made it count. However, the only thing that did not go China’s way was that Vietnam’s IADS limited the PLA’s intended airborne assaults.

Turn 2 will be another desperate race. The PLA gets another whole turn without US forces present. They will need to make it count. The PAVN will desperately try to hold on.

Turn 2

It was another Chinese initiative turn, and they operated with Air Supremacy.  Chinese SOF again hit the Vietnamese IADS and infrastructure. This was matched by a series of missile strikes, which destroyed Airbases at Bac Giang and Haiphong, and damaged the PAVN II Corps HQ. Vietnam retaliated with a series of SCUD strikes against Chinese airbases. Two were destroyed, and a squadron of J-7s were lost on the ground.

The air superiority phase again went to the PLAAF. As if they needed the help, the PLA Strategic Support Force won the cyber fight, which gave them an even greater advantage. The Allies lost four squadrons in the air: a VNAF Su-27, a Philippines FA-50, a Thai F-16, and a Thai F-5, all for no Chinese losses. The VNAF also lost a squadron of Fitters to Chinese interceptors as they attempted to support PAVN ground operations.

At sea, a PLAN Type 093 SSN launched a SLCM strike damaging the Philippines Brahmos cruise missile battery. The Philippines did score a measure of revenge, however, as its Brahmos did successfully strike a PLAN CVBG in the South China Sea. The Chinese carrier retreated to China for repairs.

On the ground, the PLA continued its rapid advance. The 75th Group Army struck deeper into the Red River Valley, like a dagger stroke to the midsection. They expanded their attack beyond Yen Bai, targeting the city of Phu Tho. The PLA reinforced the 75th by dropping three brigades and the headquarters of the Airborne Corps on the southeast side of the Red River. The PAVN 406th Armored Brigade attempted to hold on against overwhelming odds, and held off one Chinese attack. However, the PLA threw seven brigades at the city, destroying the 406th and entering the city, although they have not yet cleared it. The PLAAF 130th Airborne Brigade was destroyed in the battle for Phu Tho. The 133rd Mechanized Airborne Brigade is now a mere hex away from Hanoi.

The 83rd Group Army also continued its advance, and its lead elements destroyed the PAVN 306th Division, and then burst through the jungle roads and onto the Hanoi plains, moving as far southwest as Bac Giang. The PLA 145th Mechanized Brigade was lost during this advance, but the 83rd Group Army’s lead elements also are a mere hex from Hanoi, but admittedly on the northern side of the Duong River.

The 74th Group Army pressed forward, and encountered a powerful PAVN formation, the 304th Mechanized Division. However, the PLA was able to advance against it along two separate road networks, and hit it from two directions at once. Supported by Z-10 attack helicopters, J-16 fighter-bombers, rockets, artillery, and a successful cyber-attack, the PLA obliterated the 304th and continued its advance along the coast. The turn ended with the 74th catching and destroying the PAVN II Corps HQ at Cam Pha, destroying it and occupying town’s Airfield and Port Facilities. The 74th is angling along the coast, heading for Haiphong.

The PAVN was unable to hit back, and instead frantically repositioned its remaining forces to defend the Hanoi-Haiphong corridor. They still hold the city of Tuyen Quang, which could threaten the strung out 75th Group Army’s flank. The PAVN also moved a second division into the capital, and the exhausted 308th Division, which attempted to hold off the 74th Group Army’s advance, holds a key Duoung River bridge adjacent to Hanoi. Vietnamese Marines and elements of its I Corps are ensconced in the Haiphong area.

The next turn will be critical for China. The PLA was reinforced, with the entire 81st Group Army poised to enter the fight behind the 83rd. Vietnamese People’s Defense Force formations also began mobilizing, and if enough get to the line, will complicate China’s attacks on urban centers. However, more importantly for Vietnam, the first USAF squadrons are poised to enter the fight, alongside a USN CVBG, which is arriving from the Indian Ocean. If it can survive against China’s anti-access-area denial (A2/AD) bubble, it will provide a significant upgrade to the Allies’ firepower. 

Lessons Learned: Strike swift, strike hard, strike often! The PLA again dominated the battlespace and are right at the gates of Hanoi. With the initiative in hand, the PLA is out-maneuvering the PAVN, and is able to converge combat power at points of its choosing. Still, the well-organized Vietnamese militia organization makes it difficult for the PLA to clear cities. The PLA has enough victory pints to roll for automatic victory, but does not yet control a hex of Hanoi, which would allow it to do so. Nevertheless, their quick success has been stunning.

The PLA has pretty much had everything its way for the first two turns. The arrival of US air and naval power will provide a tougher challenge next turn. In addition to tactical aircraft now flying out of Thailand and the Philippines, US bombers out of Guam will offer the Allies a chance to start hitting back at the Chinese.

Turn 3

The PLA retained the initiative, but things did not go quite as well for them this turn. Chinese SOF was very successful in targeting the Vietnamese IADS, but were much less successful in their attacks against PAVN headquarters units. Chinese missile strikes on Vietnamese airbases were moderately successful, and one VNAF Su-30 squadron was destroyed on the ground. A long-range DF-26 strike successfully targeted the Philippines Brahmos cruise missile battery, destroying it. The arrival of US forces in the theater meant that for the first time, the Allies had more of a capacity to strike back against China. Air-launched cruise missiles, coupled with SOF strikes, destroyed two airbases on mainland China, damaging several squadrons of aircraft. 

The fight in the air was dramatically different, as USAF and USN fighters entered the fray. PLAAF domination of the air came to a screeching halt.  USN F-35Bs splashed a fifth generation J-31 squadron, while USAF F-22s, F-15s, and F-16s damaged a number of Chinese squadrons, forcing them to abort. For the last two turns, China had air supremacy. This turn ended up as contested.

There also was some action at sea this turn. A USN carrier, joined by SAGs from the Philippines and Malaysia moved Into the Spratly Islands zone, where they engaged, and sunk a PLAN SAG. The Chinese tried to strike back at the US carrier with a DF-21 carrier killer, but the attack failed. The Allies now have a strong presence in the Spratlys, and will begin pounding away at the Chinese garrison. The PLAN was successful in a combined strike by its carrier strike aircraft and land-based cruise missiles against a Vietnamese amphibious group, sending it to the bottom inshore Tonkin.

The land phase entered a new phase, as the PLA now is having some difficulty massing enough combat power to smash through PAVN defenses around Hanoi. The 75th Group Army consolidated its lines, and finally was able to clear Phu Tho. As the PAVN collapsed back on Hanoi, the PLA’s 123rd Mechanized Brigade stormed into Viet Tri, and cleared resistance there. The PLAAF Airborne Corps extended the advance toward Hanoi, and attempted to storm the southern part of the city, only to be denied by the PAVN defenders.

The newly arrived 81st Group Army conducted a rapid march through the jungle, and attempted to storm the PAVN-held city of Thai Nguyen. A hodgepodge force of three divisions from two separate PAVN corps, along with PSDF militia held off the assault, and is holding off the advance of the entire Group Army. 

The 83rd Group Army successfully smashed the remnants of the PAVN 308th Mechanized Division, which desperately tried to hold the Duong River Bridge east of Hanoi, and now has four brigades across the river. It is well positioned for a push with at least three brigades against the northeastern part of capital next turn. 

The 74th Group Army continued its advance along the coast. Its brigades cleared the port city of Ha Long, and pressed the attack toward Uong Bi, which is an immediate suburb of Haiphong. The fighting was intense, and the Chinese threw significant air, attack helicopter, cyber, and artillery support into the attack. The Vietnamese defenders, however, received some help from the USAF, which dedicated A-10 Warthogs, escorted by F-16s, to the fight. The Vipers successfully destroyed a squadron of PLAAF JH-7 Flounders that were flying CAS support. Additionally, US cyber support also prevailed, snarling the PLA’s command and control. The PAVN managed to hold the city, although a Vietnamese Marine battalion was destroyed in the fighting.

For the first time since the invasion began, the PAVN was able to launch a counterattack. Elements of the PAVN 2nd MR retreated across the jungle toward Hanoi. Its lead element was the 407th Armored Brigade, which coordinated an attack on two PLAAF Airborne Mechanized Brigades with PAVN armored units in the southern part of Hanoi. The attack was unsuccessful, but nonetheless, the presence of the 408th complicates the PLA’s operations against the capital south of the Red River. An additional PAVN division is following behind the 407th.

The other good news for the PAVN was the arrival of the Thai 2nd Army. Its one armored and two infantry divisions also are closing on the Chinese forces south of the Red River. In addition, behind it is the PAVN’s newly arrived III Corps, which will provide much-needed additional combat power. The fight around the capital is set to intensify.

Lessons Learned: Fortune is fickle. The PLA was having its way for two turns, but it ran into some obstacles on turn three. First, the arrival of American air power helped stabilize the situation. The PLAAF no longer rules the skies, and now will fight at air parity. Still, the USAF does not yet have the numbers to seize control in the air and truly start punishing the PLA on the ground.

The PLA was successful in clearing several cities, but it ran into several strong urban defensive bastions, which slowed their advance. The PLA group Army proved to be very flexible and powerful in the mobile fight toward Hanoi. For a turn, at least, its brigades lacked enough punch to take on PAVN formations defending urban areas. Although a great deal of combat power is converging on Hanoi, the PLA has a tough and bloody fight in front of it. With an entire Thai Army and a fresh PAVN corps entering from the south, the PLA may need to maneuver away from the capital to take on the new threat. 

The question now becomes how long the PAVN can hold on before it bleeds itself white holding on to key terrain and can allied forces arrive in time to save them. 

Next Time: Turns 4-6

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