Ian M. Sullivan is the Special Advisor for Analysis and ISR at the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command.

Disclaimer: All views expressed in this post are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or Army Training and Doctrine Command

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Game Turn 12

It was another clear weather turn, and the Red Force, capitalizing on last turn’s major successes, held the initiative. It started very well for the Red Force, as their SOF forces pounded Allied Airbases with multiple successful strikes. Gimpo, Osan, Wonju, and Suwon were all hit, and a ROKAF F-4E Wild Weasel and an RAAF F/A-18E were destroyed on the ground. Unfortunately for the Red Force, this was the high water mark of the turn for them.

The PLAAF and KPAF again took to the skies, but their lack of numbers meant that they had little chance for success. Allied F-22s, F-35s, F-15s, and Typhoons scattered the opposition and downed two Squadrons of J-11 Flankers and one of J-6 Farmers. The J-6 was the last operational KPAF unit, and the KPAF, for all intents and purposes, no longer exists. The Allies had several squadrons damaged, however, and lost Air Supremacy. They now only hold Air Superiority.

The strike phase for the Red Force was relatively very uneventful, as the PLARF’s magazines are close to empty. The PLAN did launch a SLCM attack against Wonju Airbase, which destroyed a ROKAF KF-16C on the ground, but that was really all they could accomplish. The Allies launched several TLAM at Red Force artillery and headquarters, but it was air strikes that did the most damage. ROKAF F-15K destroyed the PLA 78th Group Army’s MRL brigade, while USAF B-2s wrecked a KPA artillery brigade.

Trying to build on last turn’s success at sea, but with a much reduced force, the PLAN again struck at the Allies. Two Kilo SSK managed to attack and sink a RN amphibious squadron, but a ROKN Type 214 SSK, and USN SSNs engaged both, sending them permanently to the bottom of the East Sea. The PLAN also managed an area detection on a USN carrier, and tried to strike it with a DF-21, but the attack failed in the face of SM-6 SAMs.

The Red Force attempted to pull back from its forward positions to form a new line against the Allied advance, but things are getting dicey due to a lack of real combat power. This did not, however, stop the PLA from launching two attacks this turn. The first occurred when the 78th Group Army hurled four brigades against 2-82, 3-82, and the 82nd Airborne Headquarters in Haeju. The PLAAF even managed to support the attack with J-16 Fighter-Bombers and cyber forces. The Allies countered with its own cyber, USAF A-10s, and Apaches from the US 3rd ID. The Chinese attack was beaten back, and the PLA 115th Mechanized Brigade was wrecked in the fighting.

A second PLA attack occurred along the east coast, where the PLA threw two brigades against the 3CR and the ROK 15th Division. Although the Chinese supported the attack with Z-10 helicopters and two Rocket brigades, the fight was inconclusive, with the PLA 118th Mechanized Brigade destroyed and the ROK 15th Division damaged.

The Allies took advantage of the elite reaction phase to re-establish some momentum. Attacking northward from their beachhead, elements of the 13th MEU attacked across the Taadong River against two People’s Militia Brigades that tried desperately to hold the crossing. Supported by USMC Hornets, the attack succeeded, destroying both militia brigades for the loss of 2/1 Marines. The USMC 1st LAR, however surged across the river. Also, the 5th Marines advanced westward, and occupied the KPAF airbase at Ongjin, which they cleared later in the turn. 

In an attempt to link up with the Allied air/beachhead, the US 1st Cavalry Division attacked westward across the Imjin against KPA covering force consisting of an armored brigade a Red Guard brigade. Supported by Commonwealth cyber, Apaches, and USAF Vipers, the 1st Cav blasted through the KPA defenses, and the 2-1C and 3-1C surged across the Imjin. A secondary attack occurred when the 1-1C struck northward against a People’s Militia brigade, and captured the town of Kumch’on and its bridge across the Imjin.

On the central front, the 25th ID attacked to the northeast, pushing back the KPA defenders clinging to the mountainous roads leading back across the DMZ, and opening a rapid drive to the Bughan River. The 2nd ID followed behind, and engaged several KPA units streaming back from the DMZ. Two KPA mechanized brigades were lost in the attack.

Recognizing a massive breakthrough was at hand, the Red Force quickly withdrew to prevent a route. The entire PLA 78th Group Army ended its efforts to take Haeju, and rapidly pulled back its surviving formations to help form a defense of Pyongyang. Red Forces have not yet broken, but there is no spot on the battlefield from which they are not falling back.

The Allies moved quickly to take advantage of their momentum, and pressed the attack to the east. The Tropic Lightning advance to the Bughan River was blocked by sundry KPA People’s Militia brigades holding river crossings. To help break the stalemate, the Allies conducted an air assault with the 101st. 3-101 supported a drive by the 25th ID, which smashed People’s Militia Brigade holding the crossing, while 1-101 and 2-101 landed behind a KPA mechanized brigade holding the mountain pass on the southern side of the DMZ. In concert with the ROK 79th Reserve Mechanized Brigade, and supported by ROKAF F-35s, this attack destroyed the last KPA unit still active in South Korea.

The Allies launched another attack against the Chinese airborne and marine units holding the town of Kumgang (and its airfield). TF Chosin, the ROK 22nd Division, and the remnants of the 4th Marines, who air assaulted south of the town, supported by Australian Tiger attack helicopters, failed to take the town, although the PLAN 6th Marine Brigade was destroyed in the fighting. 

At the UN Security Council, the Chinese representative is desperately calling for a cease-fire. It is not clear if the Americans are so inclined.

Lessons Learned: The Allies Strike Back. The Red Force had the initiative, but really lacked the combat power to do anything with it. They had a spectacularly successful SOF phase which, in concert with cruise missiles, destroyed three Allied air squadrons. Their attack on a US carrier failed, but their submarines did score against an British amphibious squadron. But they just did not have enough left on the ground to matter. The PLA tried two set piece attacks, and even scrounged up air support for them, but one was stopped cold at Haeju, and the other, along the coast, was inconclusive. The KPA could do nothing but attempt some kind of orderly retreat.

Although they lacked the initiative, the high quality of the US formations meant that they still had two chances to move this turn, and they took advantage. The 1st Cav’s push across the the Imjin, and the subsequent retreat of the PLA 78th Group Army toward Pyongyang, opened the Haeju-Kaesong highway, and opened a LOC to the Allied air/beachhead. The capture of the Taadong River crossing means that the Allies have a path to strike at Pyongyang.

Similarly, the attack by the 25th ID has opened the way for the Allies to roll up the eastern side of the Red defenses. Although the remains of two PLA Group Armies still provide a credible defense, the Allies now have two routes open to strike at Wonsan.

With Beijing seeking a cease-fire, and the Allies having suffered very heavy losses, it is unclear how much longer the fight will last. The Allies, however, will want to make sure they are in a position of strength before hostilities cease, so we will move on to turn 13.

Game Turn 13 and Cease-Fire

It was a clear weather turn and the Allies held the initiative. They used it to keep the pressure on the Red Force for the entire turn, starting with the SOF phase. Allied SOF pounded the red IADS and targeted enemy headquarters and artillery units, causing some damage. It also damaged the PLA S-300 SAM at Wonsan. The Red SOF also was successful, destroying Incheon air base and a squadron of USMC Hornets on the ground.

The Allies dominated the air phase, as the PLAAF could only put aloft two squadrons of aircraft. A J-31 was damaged and aborted, while a J-8 Finback was splashed for no Allied losses. The Allies regained air supremacy for the turn.

The Red Force was able to get a DF-21C through Allied defenses, which severely damaged a USN carrier in the East Sea, but had nothing left to finish it off. The carrier limped back to Japan for repairs.

Allied strikes included TLAM and a wave of bombers and strike aircraft. US B-2 bombers pounded the S-300 SAM, finishing it off. B-52s destroyed a KPA artillery brigade, while USAF Strike Eagles wrecked a Chinese rocket brigade assigned to the 79th Group Army, while a number of KPA headquarters were damaged. Finally, ROKAF F-15Ks hit Wonsan airbase, damaging a squadron of PLA Z-10 attack helicopters.

The Allies pressed their attack on the ground further into North Korea, and the Red Forces were unable to offer much more than token resistance. Pressing further to the west, the 5th Marines captured, and eventually cleared Chang-yon Airbase. The 1st Cav pushed further northward, targeting the city of Sariwon, which was defended by two Red Gurad brigades. The 2-1C and 3-1C, supported by Apaches and USAF Warthogs, took the city. Just to their south, 2-82 and 3-82 smashed a People’s Militia Brigade, while 1-1C and elements of the 4th Marines destroyed the KPA XI Corps Headquarters. Elements of the PLA 78th Group Army tried to counterattack and re-take Sariwon, but the 1st Cav beat them off.

Following behind the 1st Cav, the US 3rd ID attacked further northward along the Imjin. 1-3 and 2-3 smashed a KPA X Corps infantry division at Kumch’on, which opened a second LOC to connect with the Allued lodgment at Haeju. This attack was supported by push by three ROK divisions toward the Imjin, which wrecked a KPA motorized division and a People’s Militia Brigade, and damaged another infantry division. The ROK 20th Mechanized Division surged across the Imjin, and occupied a nuclear site north of Namch’onjon, but did not clear it. Two other ROK divisions are following behind.

Attacking eastward, the US 2nd ID and ROK 11th Division engaged the remnants of two KPA corps. In two separate fights, and with Apaches, Warthogs, and cyber forces in support, eliminated the North Korean formations. 

East of this engagement, the 25th ID and 101st Air Assault fought across the Bughan River, smashing several KPA formations. Supported by Australian Super Hornets, the 25th ID destroyed several Red Guard brigades. A further attack by the 25th engaged two brigades of the PLA 80th Group Army, and hurled them back. The 3rd Cavalry Regiment and the ROK 15th Division destroyed another Chinese brigade—190th Mechanized—but the 3CR was destroyed in the attack. 

The massive Allied attack against Kumgang finally ended, with the ROK 1st Marine Division taking the town and airstrip, and destroying the PLAAF 134th Airborne Brigade. This attack was heavily supported by Commonwealth cyber, Australian Super Hornets, and Tigers. The Chinese even dedicated J-16 fighter-bombers to the defense, but they were for naught. The Allies did lose the 3/4 Marines in the fight. Additionally, the KPA mechanized brigade that was trapped between ROK and USMC formations surrendered.

The Allies pressed the offensive further, consolidating their control over Sariwon and reinforcing their position with the arrival of 1-3 BCT. A combined force of the 82nd Airborne, 1st Cav, 3rd ID, and 4th Marines fought two engagements against the PLA 78th Group Army. Supported by USMC Hornets and F-35Bs, the American force destroyed the PLA 48th Motorized Brigade and sent two other brigades streaming back toward Pyongyang. The USMC 3/4 Marines, however, were destroyed in the fighting.

As this fight ensued, the 1-1C and the USMC 1st LAR launched a wide sweeping drive, crossing the undefended bridge near the urban center of Chinnamp’o, and attacked it. Supported by USAF Strike Eagles, this force was more than enough to defeat the two Red Guard brigades defending the city. The US force occupied and cleared the city. 

The eastward drive by the US 2nd ID and 25th ID linked up with the force that had slogged its way northward. Scattering some remaining KPA reserve and militia forces, the Allies managed to advance as far north as as T’ongch’on, which was captured by 2-101 and 3-101. With their forces well north of the DMZ and threatening Pyongyang and Wonsan, the Combined Forces Command agreed to accept a cease-fire.

Lessons Learned: “In the absence of orders, go find something and kill it.” Erwin Rommel. Rommel’s quote here kind of sums up this turn for the Allies. They just kept on pressing and smashed whatever was left in their path. With the Chinese calling for a cease-fire, the Allies went as hard as they could on three fronts to take as much ground and defeat as many enemy formations as they could. And the Red Forces could do little in return. 

Having already shoved the Red Force back across the DMZ, and with powerful US forces now in theater, the Allies launched a series of attacks on three fronts. The Allied lodgment at Haeju served as a springboard for an assault toward Pyongyang. The key to this drive was the push by the 1st Cav to blast across the Imjin and provide the heavy forces needed to smash the Red defenders. This drive, and a supporting assault by the 3rd ID, enabled the capture of Sariwon, and the sweeping attack that captured Chinnamp’o. The First Team, the All Americans, the Rock of the Marne and the Marines smashed the PLA 78th Group Army, and would have been knocking on Pyongyang’s door had the game continued.

The hard fighting 2nd ID, which had fought from the Han northward, and the 25th ID, with some help from the ROK, finally blasted through the central Red defenses, and pushed across the Bughan River. Although its slog through the teeth of the North Korean DMZ defenses may not have been as sexy as the fights along the the coasts, it was what tore the heart out of the enemy defenses, and its assaults this turn finally linked up with the Allied right flank.

The Allies also were highly successful along the east coast, with the hard mountain fight for Kumgang against Chinese marines and airborne finally ending in victory. The destruction of the Wonsan S-300 allowed the 101st Air Assaukt Division to hop across the battlespace, aiding the Tropic Lightning’s attack across the Bughan and capturing T’ongch’on on the coast. This force, comprised of Marines, the Screaming Eagles, the Commonwealth brigade, and various ROK formations, fought hard to hurl back three KPA corps and two PLA Group Armies, and would have posed a significant threat to Wonsan.

The Red Force tried one counterattack around Sariwon, but it failed. The only other red success was a strike on a US carrier, which severely damaged it, but did not sink it. Their lack of combat power meant they could not follow up, which allowed the flattop to retreat to Japan for repairs.

So with the cease-fire in effect, the game ended with the Allies at 81 victory points, which is a decisive victory.

Final Thoughts

So as a reminder, I played the strategic surprise scenario, which postulates a bolt from blue attack by the KPA against the South, and China sided with the DPRK. The Commonwealth forces were at full participation, while Japanese air units and SOF aided the Allied cause. The game lasted 13 turns—about 39 days—and ended after a cease-fire as a decisive Allied victory. 

I thought early on that this game would be a beast to play, and boy was I right. The initial size of the combatant forces set against the unique topography of the Korean Peninsula made for an intense, brutal slugfest. Indeed, much of the game centered around the area of the DMZ, down to the Han-Soyang River line—about 10-12 hexes (75-90 miles or so) deep. As a result, this game was a staggering war of attrition, which finally ended as a war of maneuver that sealed the Red Force’s fate. In many ways, it was a modern, sophisticated, incredibly lethal conflict whose form closely followed that of the First World War, but played out in just over a month. The staggering point however, is that on a per-capita basis, spread out just over a month in time, it may have been more costly in terms of casualties than even the great fights of the Western Front.

As the game started, my plan for the KPA was to push as hard as I could across the entirety of the Peninsula. I believed that at some point, they would have a breakthrough that they would be able to exploit and bust as far south as they could. I’d hoped that it would happen quickly, as I knew that once US forces arrived, the Red Force would have trouble. The KPA is a large force, and it even had some powerful formations designed to blast through Allied defenses and exploit the openings. I knew from the start that the KPA would have trouble in the air until the PLAAF arrived in force, so I simply resolved to take my lumps in that domain and press forward.

There was nothing truly elegant about the KPA assault, which is a factor of the terrain. The tunnels under the DMZ helped the initial invasion, but breaking the Allied—basically the ROK Army—defenses was a straight up bar fight where true maneuver was impossible. I tried to be a bit creative by dropping airborne formations and even launch an amphibious attack around Incheon, but the plan was to keep pressing until something burst. I didn’t particularly want to attack Seoul, as I realized it would be a tough nut to crack, but hoped a breakthrough somewhere would help me isolate it. That was part of the plan for the attack near Incheon.

On the Allied side, my plan was to hold as long as I could, as far forward as I could, and wait for the cavalry to arrive. I thought I could hold Seoul, and I knew that it would be very difficult for the KPA to blast across the Imjin. I was initially less concerned about the center, because I thought that was one spot I could trade a bit of space for time. I was very worried about the east coast, as the terrain lightens up and offers a route south, if exploited properly. I also intended to rely on my air power as a hammer to pound away at the KPA and to support key battles with close air support. If I could hold long enough, I figured the enemy eventually would culminate, which would be when the Combined Forces Command could shift to the offensive.

The result of these competing approaches to the conflict was an absolute meat grinder whose results were akin to something like the Somme or Verdun. The KPA pushed hard, and threw its entire weight into earning a breakthrough. It did not happen in front of Seoul, as the Imjin River line held. It happened, however, in the center, and the KPA rolled up the Allied defense of Seoul by attacking westward against Uijeongbo. Once that city fell, the Allies had trouble. 

It was here, however, where I probably made the biggest mistake of the game for the Red Force. I tried to do too much, and attacked in two directions. I tried to bust open the Imjin Line, to threaten Seoul, AND also push toward the Han River. I should have realized that I could not achieve all three. I also had some success in the east, threatening to breach the Soyang Line and break through along the coastal highway. I threatened Chuncheon, and also even got across the Han, but by dividing my main effort, I never got enough forces across to matter. Elements of one KPA Mechanized Corps actually drove on the Osan-Camp Humphreys complex, which would have been an utter disaster for the Combined Forces Command, but it was too late. The US 82nd Airborne and 1-2 BCT arrived, and held the line. It sealed the breach and reestablished the Han Line. That was the point where the fight was in balance, and the Allies held….by the skin of their teeth.

The arrival of the Chinese made a difference, but the reality was that they did not provide enough of an edge to really tip the game in the Red direction. They came close to busting through along the coast, eventually committing two Group Armies and other formations to the fight along the eastern coast, but the hard-pressed ROK VIII Corps, led by the downright heroic performance of the ROK 22nd Division, which literally was engaged from the first minute of the war—and US Marines—especially TF Chosin—held the line. The Chinese almost broke through, but the US deep raid by the 101st Air Assault Division stabilized the front and allowed the Allies to push back. 

The Chinese also tried to raid behind the lines with an airborne attack on Gangneung, but it was only a partial success. The Initial air drop was roughed up by Allied IADS and interceptors, and some units were lost in the air. Nevertheless, it took the Allies several turns to devote resources to clearing the airhead, and the assault interdicted the flow of reinforcements northward for several turns. The Chinese thought that it would give them an opportunity to break through the Allied defenses and link up with its paratroopers, but like an earlier airborne assault in the Netherlands, it proved to be a bridge too far….

Although the KPA did take most of the urban suburbs of Seoul, these attacks proved to be futile. For several turns, they even used chemical weapons, but they were not decisive, and the Allies gained victory points for each use. The KPA tried to take Seoul from three directions, and some of the toughest fighting occurred on the Incheon-Gimpo front, where the KPA moved formations across the Han Estuary onto the small Peninsula. This offensive eventually was contained by a number of ROK reserve and homeland defense formations that cleared it of KPA forces and allowed for an allied move northward. The stout defense of the Seoul metroplex proved to be the rock that stopped the Red flood.

Around the same time the Allies launched the desperate raid of the 101st Air Assault, the 82nd and 2nd ID launched a local attack across the Han to weaken the KPA advance. This local attack was successful, and it soon turned into the spearhead of a broad general offensive. The 82nd eventually was relieved and replaced by the 25th ID, and the assault by the 2nd ID and 25th ID northward blunted the KPA bulge and started smashing their defenses. Followed by ROK formations—mostly reserve units—attacking northward across the Han, and north and northwest by ROK units defending Seoul, the KPA was inexorably forced back. If Seoul was the rock that stopped the tide. The assault by the Indianhead and Tropic Lightning was the dagger to their heart.

To finally finish the Red Force, the Allies hatched a bold move to conduct an Amphibious/airborne assault on North Korea. The Marines struck at the port of Haeju, while the redoubtable 82nd Airborne dropped outside the city to take it. This drew off the Chinese 78th Group Army from holding the Kaesong Heights, to deal with this threat. Although the Chinese did destroy the the 1-82 in the marshes east of Haeju, they could not budge the rest of the paratroopers from the city.

The tide was turned, however, by the massive Allied assault back across the Imjin that was spearheaded by the 1st Cavalry Division. Obliterating several KPA formations in their path, the opened a LOC to relieved the Haeju lodgement, and helped force back the 78th Group Army. Just behind them was the 3rd ID, which opened a second LOC toward Haeju and helped the Allies secure control of the key North Korean city of Sariwon. A last Allied triumph was the sweeping ride of the 1-1C and the USMC 1st LAR, which actually took the major city of Chinnamp’o, a mere 20 odd miles southwest of Pyongyang. Coupled with the drive of the 2nd ID and 25^th ID across the Bughan River, and with 2-101 and 3-101 in the town of T’ongch’on on the east coast, the Allies were in a commanding position to accept a cease-fire.

Before moving to final lessons, a word must be said on the effectiveness of the KPA and PLARF missiles and their SOF. They were highly successful during the war, and caused the Allies consistent pain and suffering, even though THAAD and Patriot helped mitigate them. Allied losses in aircraft were mainly from these strikes, and they were severe. The most successful Red operation of the entire conflict was the destruction of a US carrier to DF-21C. A second carrier also was severely damaged, and had to limp back to Japan for repairs. These weapons did not win the war for the Red Force, but they sure kept up the pressure on the Allies throughout.

More decisive was Allied air power. Initially outnumbered by the KPAF, they were never outclassed. Indeed, the KPAF’s flying museum pieces were no match for Allied fighters. Even when the PLAAF entered the fray, they just lacked the numbers of truly high quality fifth generation fighters to matter. Allied air power made a huge difference in the game, seizing air supremacy, striking critical targets, and deftly supporting Allied ground attacks.

The best commander of the US Civil War, Ulysses S. Grant once said “in every battle there comes a time when both sides consider themselves beaten, then he who continues the attack wins.” Sam Grant’s phrase was ringing in my head as I played through this game. The Allies for a time were reeling, and it looked unbelievably grim for them. The KPA reached the outskirts of Seoul, the Han River was breached, and fresh Chinese forces were streaming to blast through the eastern coastal highway. Yet the Allies held firm and started pushing back. Two desperate moves—the air assault by the 101st and the defense of the Han breach by the 82nd, 2nd, and the 4th Marines, and their push back against the KPA spearhead were practical applications of Grant’s words.

For its part, the Red Force was unable to continue the attack from that point. They lacked the combat power to do anything but hold on, and they began a withdrawal, which eventually became a rout. They could no longer attack, and were beaten.

In previous write ups, I spoke of the butcher’s bill. It’s simply too large to count here. Instead, I took a picture of the destroyed units pile of counters off the map which shows the staggering losses each side took. The Allies suffered heavily, especially the ROK, which lost most of its active Army and Air Force. US losses also were high, highlighted by the wrecked carrier. 

Red losses were mind-blowing. The KPAF was completely destroyed and the KPA simply no longer exists. Only the Pyongyang Defense Corps and a handful of other units remained in the field as of the cease-fire. The Chinese also suffered severely. They did not commit a truly significant portion of the PLA to the fight, but they did essentially lose two whole Group Armies, 10 squadrons of aircraft, and key naval forces, including one of their carriers.

So in the end, it was a war of attrition designed to restore maneuver. Attrition clearly occurred, and it was a heavyweight bout. The Allies finally turned it into a war of maneuver around turn 10, when the attrition suffered by the Red Forces was simply too much for them. Allied success was again due to their ability to converge multi-domain capabilities and also the quality of their troops—mainly those of the US (and Commonwealth.) Troop quality has mattered in each of these games I’ve played, but I think it mattered most in this one. The combat table shifts and the elite movement phase was a true godsend for the Allies and let them quickly react to threats—like the Han breach—and then seize momentum, even when the Red Force had the initiative. This was most glaring after the Red Force seized the initiative In Turn 12 after killing the US carrier in Turn 11, when the 1st Cav still had two movement segments to blast across the Imjin to relieve the air/beachhead at Haeju.

So yes, this one one was a beast. It was brutal and it was lethal. I really had fun with it, but I also was uneasy as I thought about the type of scenario this game represents. The only thing I really missed was more naval play. I wish there would’ve been a better way to capture it, as the PLAN may have been better off, for example, trying to interdict US reinforcements at sea. Nevertheless, the map already is so large that I would have had no room to set up a strategic map.

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Previous Articles from Ian Sullivan:

“All Along The Demilitarized Zone”: Playing Next War: Korea (Part 1)

“All Along The Demilitarized Zone”: Playing Next War: Korea (Part 2)

“All Along The Demilitarized Zone”: Playing Next War: Korea (Part 3)

“All Along The Demilitarized Zone”: Playing Next War: Korea (Part 4)

China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam Series

A Hop, Skip, and an Amphibious Assault — Playing Next War: Taiwan Series

Poland is Not Yet Lost: Playing Next War: Poland Series