Ian M. Sullivan is the Special Advisor for Analysis and ISR at the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command.

Disclaimer: All views expressed in this post are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or Army Training and Doctrine Command

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Game Turn 9

The Allies reclaimed the initiative, and took advantage of the clear weather to go over on the offensive. Allied SOF attempted more strikes against Red Force headquarters units, artillery, and the IADS, but were completely ineffective, causing no damage.

The air superiority phase was not even contested by the Red Force. The KPAF had only one squadron of MiG-21PF available, and the PLAAAF only three squadrons. They ceded control of the air this turn in the hopes of having more aircraft available next turn, which includes an influx of modern PLAAF fighters.

Red Force SOF was more successful than the Allies. Although its attack against the IADS failed, KPA SOF launched a successful strike against Ganghyeon Airfield, and damaged the AH-64 battalion assigned to the 101st Air Assault Division.

The strike phase, however, was very eventful. Chinese PLARF again struck at Allied bases, which are targeted as soon as they are repaired. Ballistic missile strikes successfully put Gunsan and Daejon out of commission, and wrecked a squadron of A-10s and the already damaged Apaches from the 101st Air Assault on the ground. Additionally, SLCM launched from the East Sea from a Type 093 SSN targeted the Headquarters of the US I Corps at Suwon, heavily damaging it. The KPAF tried to launch a strike against the US I Corps Headquarters with their last squadron of H-5 Beagle light bombers, but USAF F-22s intercepted and destroyed them.

The Allies launched punishing raids with strike aircraft and TLAM across the front. First struck by TLAM, the PLA S-300 SAM deployed to Haeju was damaged, and then finished off by a strike from USAF B-2 bombers. The KPA III Corps Headquarters was wrecked by a another strike from B-2s, while the PLA 79th Group Army Headquarters, which had been pounded by Allied air for the last few turns, was finally destroyed by a strike from a ROKAF F-15K. A number of other units also suffered damage in these strikes.

There was some naval action this turn, as the PLAN attempted to move two submarines to target a USN carrier that was detected inshore of the East Sea. A Type 093 SSN was unable to get past the Allied ASW screen, but a Type 041 SS did manage to get a shot off against it, and damaged the flat top. The US carrier limped back to Japan for repairs. Three USN attack subs—one Virginia-class and two Los Angeles-class—made the PLAN sub pay, by pouncing in it, and sending it to the bottom. Additionally, Red Force naval assets took to the sea to protect the eastern coast of North Korea from invasion. USN assets detected one PLAN SAG, and ASCMs fired by US ships in a second carrier battle group and carrier-based Rhinos struck and destroyed the SAG.

On the ground, the Combined Forces Command conducted a Peninsula-wide offensive. Reserve ROK formations continued to push north against KPA forces in front of Incheon. Several Reserve and Homeland Defense Divisions, supported by ROK cyber attacks and KF-16Cs recaptured the suburb of Incheon and destroyed the KPA 33rd Division in the process. This was the last unit remaining from the KPA IV Corps.

Attacking northward out of Seoul, multiple ROK divisions struck at elements of the KPA II Corps, that was investing the capital from Paeju. In a massive fight, the KPA lost 6th Division and a light infantry brigade. The already damaged ROK 30th Mechanized Division also was destroyed in the fighting, but the KPA was pushed back from Seoul.

The US I Corps continued its attack, engaging the Headquarters of the 815th Mechanized Corps southeast of Uijeongbo. Desperate to protect this formation, the KPA committed Su-25 aircraft and artillery fire to the fight. For its part, the 2nd ID and 82nd Airborne were well supported by Commonwealth cyber and A-10s, and USMC F/A-18s intercepted and splashed the Frogfoot. The 815th Headquarters was destroyed, and the US 2nd ID has reached the outskirts of Uijeongbo.

Following behind the US advance, the ROK 1st Army, largely comprised of reserve formations, continued to attack eastward along the Han River against the KPA IX Corps. They forced back and damaged the KPA 24th Division, but lost the 36th Homeland defense Division in the attack, in spite of their support from KF-16Cs and ROK cyber.

In the East, the Allies launched a series of attacks designed to break the PLA 79th Group Army. 1-101 and 3-101, along with elements of the 15th MEU struck two PLA brigades north of the Soyang River. Supported by US cyber and Australian Super Hornets, the American attack destroyed the PLA 191st Mototized Brigade and heavily damaged the 200th Mechanized Brigade. The 3/7 Marines were destroyed in the attack.

Attacking northward was the 2-101, the ROK 22nd Division, and the 69th Reserve Mechanized Division. This attack was supported by US cyber and A-10s. The PLA tried to hold, but the 46th Mechanized Brigade was destroyed. The ROK 69th Reserve, which already was weakened, also was destroyed in the fighting.

Further south, the Allies launched a second attack at the PLAAF airhead which still was holding on in Gangneung. Two PLAAF airborne brigades were destroyed, but the third still clung to the city.

A second series of Allied attacks continued to press the fight. The ROK reserve formations near Incheon, supported by USAF F-16Cs, launched a second attack, and this time destroyed a powerful mechanized division assigned to the KPA III Corps. 

In the east, the 101st Air Assault hit the retreating PLA 200th Brigade, destroying it. Although the 1-101 and 3-101 are damaged, they spearheaded the destruction of three PLA brigades this turn.

And finally, resistance in Gangneung has ended, as the now out-of-supply, isolated, and weakened PLAAF 127th Airborne Brigade surrendered to the Allies.

Recognizing that it could no longer press the offensive, the Red Force started a general withdrawal in the hopes that its remaining combat power, operating behind its DMZ fortifications, could hold off the Allies and lead to a cease-fire. The Red Force also moved a newly arriving PLA Group Army—the 78th—to help hold the Imjin River, and potentially conduct local counterattacks where feasible.

Lessons Learned: The Pendulum Swings. The Allies appear to have turned a corner, and have pushed the Red Force back across the width of the Peninsula.  The threat to Seoul seems obviated for the moment, and the Allies will have a clear path to push back.

The most likely road forward appears to be the eastern coast. The remains of PLA 79th Group Army and a hodgepodge of surviving KPA units and reserve formations will be hard pressed to hold in the face of Allied pressure. The ill-fated Chinese airborne assault on Gangneung ended in disaster, but it did hold off Allied reinforcements from reaching the front for several turns, leaving the fight with the PLA 79th in the hands of the light 101st Air Assault, a handful of Marines, and the redoubtable ROK 22nd Division, which still keeps fighting. The 2nd Cavalry and TF Chosin can now rejoin the fight, along with ROK reserve formations to throw back the Chinese and North Koreans. This corridor has the easiest terrain through which to press, so it will become the critical front.

Further west, the Allies will likely push to the Imjin and attempt to retake Uijeongbo. The US 25th ID is ready to join the fight, and likely can provide some relief to the hard fought 2nd ID and 82nd Airborne. Additionally, the ROK Capital Corps likely will spearhead the attack against the Imjin.

We also saw our first real maritime action of the game. Naval forces have less to do in this game compared to the others I have played, but the Red Force naval formations need to try to do something to break the stalemate. This round went to the Allies, but we’re probably not quite done yet at sea.

The Red Force could not break through, but did not quite spend themselves completely. They have suffered gravely but still retain combat power to try to hold the border, particularly with fresh Chinese units arriving. The Allied dominance of the air needs to be reversed, and the arrival of more PLAAF squadrons means that they will at least be able to contest allied air supremacy. It will now be Allies’ turn to batter themselves against North Korean defenses. However, with control of the air and significant naval power at their disposal, the Allies may have other options to break the stalemate.

Game Turn 10

It was a clear weather turn, and the Allies had the initiative. They began with a SOF phase that was completely unsuccessful, with no damage inflicted on any target, and a US SOF team destroyed in an attack against the Red IADS. The Red Force was more successful with their SOF attacks, damaging several airbases and a squadron of ROKAF F-15Ks.

The air superiority phase was heavily contested, as the Red air forces received an influx of PLAAF fighters, which were far more capable than the museum pieces flown by the KPAF. The results, however, were about the same. The PLAAF lost four squadrons in the air: a fifth generation J-20, 2 fourth generation J-10s, and a J-8. The KPAF also lost three squadrons: a MiG-21Bis, a MiG-21PF, and an F-6, while The Allies had a squadron of USAF F-15Cs and F-16Cs damaged. In spite of the Chinese reinforcements, the Allies retained air supremacy.

The strike phase was active, but not very eventful. The PLARF magazines are getting low, so it launched fewer missiles at ROK airbases and ports, but one missile strike did manage to destroy the already damaged F-15K on the ground. The Allies launched a barrage of TLAM, and followed them up with air strikes against PLA and KPA headquarters, the S-300 at Haeju, and artillery units, damaging several, but destroying none.

There was a very active naval phase this turn. First, USN forces launched a wave of attacks involving submarines, surface forces, and air strikes launched from Super Hornets against PLAN naval forces operating off Wonsan. These attacks were very successful, sinking a PLAN carrier and a SAG. A PLAN Type 093 SSN attempted to get some revenge by launching ASCMs against a USN SAG, but the attack was unsuccessful. USN Los Angeles-Class and Virginia-Class SSNs and a ROKN Type 214 SSK pounced on it, and sent it to the bottom.

On the ground, the Allies continued their general push northward. West of Seoul, the hodgepodge of ROK reserve formations continued clearing the Incheon Peninsula, forcing the remaining ROK defenders to withdraw back across the Han Estuary. Further east, the Allies moved against KPA-occupied Uijeongbo, and a joint attack by several ROK formations and elements of the US 2ID and 82nd Airborne, supported by cyber forces, A-10s and Apaches, broke the North Korean hold over the city, and destroyed a KPA Mechanized brigade in the process. The ROK 2nd Armored Brigade also was lost in the fight. Additionally, USMC Hornets intercepted and splashed a KPAF A-5 Fantan that attempted to provide close air support.

Just east of this, elements of the ROK 1st Army and the US 4-25 BCT attacked the KPA 806th Mechanized Corps, that was holding the southern portion of the Red-occupied central highlands. Also supported by Warthogs and Apaches, the Allies destroyed the KPA 4th Mechanized Brigade in the attack.

Along the eastern coast, the Allies blasted across the DMZ, and moved into North Korea. The Commonwealth Brigade, consisting of 40 and 42 Commando and an Australian Airborne Battalion, supported by Commonwealth Cyber, RAAF Super Hornets, and Tiger attack helicopters, struck against the fortified DMZ, destroying a People’s Militia Brigade and forcing back the 61st Sniper Brigade.

Along the coast, the USMC TF Chosin, the ROK 22nd Division, and elements of the US 101st Air Assault, backed by Commonwealth cyber, USAF Warthogs, and USMC Super Cobras, smashed through a KPA combat outpost along the DMZ, and forced back other KPA formations.

A second series of Allied attacks further pounded the Red Forces. Advancing northward out Seoul, the powerful ROK VII Corps attempted to force the Imjin, which was held by two KPA divisions from the III Corps. In spite of the very heavy ROK divisions that participated in the attack, they just could not budge the KPA defenders. 

The Allies were much more successful in front of Uijeongbo. Elements of the ROK I Corps and Capital Defense Corps struck a KPA Light Infantry Brigade holding the Imjin crossing, wrecking it. The ROK 71st Reserve Division surged across the river. 

Just east of this fight, the US 2nd ID and 25th ID attacked a second crossing point held by a division from the KPA X Corps. The US forces, with support from USMC Hornets and Apaches from the 25th ID, smashed the KPA Division, and the 1-2 and 2-2 BCTs forded the Imjin. The 2-82 BCT was roughed up in this attack.

The Allies also kept up the attack in the east. The Commonwealth Brigade, 1-101, and 2-101, supported by Australian Super Hornets and Tigers, were finally able to destroy the KPA 61st Sniper Brigade. Along the Coast, USMC TF Chosin, the USMC 1st Tank Battalion, the US 2nd Cavalry Regiment, and the ROK 22nd Division, backed by USN Rhinos and USMC Super Cobras smashed a KPA People’s Militia Brigade that was holding DMZ fortifications. The USMC 1st Tanks were damaged in the assault.

For its part, the Red Forces attempted to pull back to defensible lines. The PLA 80th Group Army arrived in North Korea and is hurrying along the eastern coastal road to try to contain the Allied push. The KPA also tried a limited spoiling attack in the Central Highlands, but they traded an infantry division for the ROK 3rd Armored Brigade.

Lessons Learned: Grab ‘em by the nose, and kick ‘em in the ass! The Allies were ruthless this turn, and just pounded away at the Red Forces. It started with the air superiority fight, where Allied air forces simply overwhelmed the Red Air Forces with quality and quantity. The PLAAF has some good aircraft, but the number Allied fighters with long rang AMRAAM and Meteor give areal advantage. China’s fifth generation J-20 held its own one-on-one, but it was up against USAF F-15C and F-22s, and paid the price.

The naval fight was long coming, and showed how dominant Allied sea power can be. The PLAN and KPAN have limited opportunities in this game, and have been largely relegated to coastal defense missions. The Allied navies, however, went hunting this turn, and the PLAN paid the price. Thus far, the PLA has been unable to get a good shot on USN formations with its DF-21s, but they remain a threat.

The ground fight truly was a general offensive, with Allied ground formations advancing on a broad front across the Peninsula. With control over the air, and the pounding Allied Wild Weasels have given to the Red IADS, the Allies have been able to actively support ground almost every ground fight with fixed- and rotary-wing support, as well as with cyber attacks. These multi-domain attacks have been very successful, even when the Red Forces hold favorable defensive terrain. 

The Allies retain air supremacy and have the initiative. The Red Lines are getting thin in places, and although the PLA is reinforcing the eastern coast, the US 2nd ID and 25th ID face a real opportunity of blast through the central front. The arrival of Tropic Lightning has allowed the Combined Forces Command to withdraw the 82nd Airborne for future operations. It also has moved two MEUs to the western coast. Furthermore, the arrival of the rest of the US 1st Cavalry Division at the now re-opened port of Pyongtaek gives the Allies a powerful striking force to hurl northward. It’s not clear how much longer this fight can go on, but it will at least go into turn 11.

Game Turn 11

It was another clear weather turn, and the Allies retained the initiative. They began with a series of SOF raids that struck several Red headquarters units and damaged the Chinese S-300 at Haeju. The Red SOF also was successful, hitting Wonju airbase and damaging a ROKAF F-15K on the ground.

Although outnumbered, several PLAAF squadrons took to the air against the Allies. A Fifth Generation J-31 squadron was damaged, but managed to down an RAF Typhoon squadron. USAF F-35A evened the score by downing a Finback squadron, and the Allies maintained air supremacy.

The strike phase was highly eventful, as the PLARF received some additional missiles. Strikes against ROK airbases successfully hit Wonju and Gunsan, and wrecked the already damaged F-15 K and destroyed a USMC F-35B on the ground. Allied TLAM hit the S-300 at Taegu and further damaged the KPA I Corps Headquarters. The KPAF attempted a strike with its last H-5 Beagle squadron, but this was intercepted and splashed by RAF Typhoons. The Allies then launched a punishing series of raids with heavy bombers and strike aircraft. B-2s eliminated the Haeju, S-300, while a second squadron of Spirits hit the PLA 78th Group army Headquarters, destroying it. A further strike by B-1s destroyed the KPA I Corps Headquarters, and other strikes caused lighter damage across the front.

The fight at sea took a bloody turn, and changed the course of the war. It started out well for the Allies, as airstrikes by carrier-based Super Hornets severely damaged a PLAN SAG and a KPN amphibious squadron, both of which were then finished off by USN submarines and surface ships. The PLARF, however, managed the coup of the turn, when they finally were able to cripple a USN carrier with a DF-21 in the East Sea. A PLAN Type 093 SSN finished the carrier off with ASCM, which sent the flattop and its air wing to the bottom. Additionally, PLAN SSKs were able to locate a sink a USN Virginia-clas SSN, which was detected during its attack on the PLAN SAG. The turn at sea was a major victory for the PLA, and stunned the Allies.

In spite of the losses at sea, the Allies pushed forward with their offensive. Their boldest move was to attempt to outflank the Red defenses by launching a combined airborne/airmobile/amphibious assault on North Korea’s western coast. The key to the operation was the destruction of the Haeju S-300 battalion, and with it destroyed, the first move was an assault by the 13th MEU against the port of Sinwon. Supported by USMC Hornets, the 13th MEU stormed ashore and brushed aside the KPAN sailors manning the port. A North Korean amphibious squadron was destroyed in the attack, but the 3/1 Marines were destroyed in the assault. Just to the east, the 82nd Airborne Division landed its 2nd and 3rd BCTs by helicopter outside Haeju, while 1-82 and the Headquarters jumped to cover their flank. Supported by Australian F-35s, the 2-82 and 3-82 attacked Haeju, destroying the Z-10 helicopter squadron assigned to the PLA 78th Group Army, and cleared the city.

The PLA 78th Group Army, however, responded to this new Allied threat, and attacked westward against the 1-82 BCT, which was screening the Allied force at Haeju. Two separate attacks, including with support from PLAAF J-16s, damaged, and then destroyed 1-82, and two brigades of the 78th Group Army are now threatening the rest of the 82nd In Haeju.

Combined Forces Command launched a powerful attack to burst the Red defenses along the Imjin, with the goal of linking up with the air- and beachheads. The ROK VII Corps struck a crossing held by the KPA III Corps, and smashed a KPA Division, although the ROK Capital Division was destroyed in the effort. The ROK 20th Mechanized Division advanced across the Imjin.

Just to the west, the USMC 4th Marines, augmented by ROK Reserve formations attacking across the Han Estuary, forced back a KPA XII Corps Division, while reserve units pushed back a KPA Motorized Division. This opened needed space for the Allies to exploit.

The Allies took advantage of this initial success by running the newly arrived 1st Cavalry Division into the fight. Attacking a KPA Division and a People’s Militia Brigade, the 2-1C and 3-1C BCTs forced them off the Kaesong Heights, and then advanced into, and then occupied the city of Kaesong. The 4th Marines and ROK Reserve formations, supported by USMC F-35B attacked on the 1st Cav’s left, and eliminated a wounded KPA Motorized Brigade in the process.

Across from Uijeongbo, the ROK Capital Defense Corps and I Corps smashed the last brigade of the 815th Mechanized Corps, and the ROK 60th Reserve Mechanized Division blasted across the Imjin.

Along the central front, the US 2nd and 25th Divisions launched a series of hammer blows against defending KPA forces. Several fights occurred, with strong support from Apaches and USAF Warthogs, which left a KPA Armored Brigade and its X Corps Headquarters destroyed. 1-2, 2-2, and 81-2 all surged across the DMZ, and now have their choice of several possible opportunities to smash the Red lines, either eastward or westward.

A further series of running fights occurred to the west, as the 25th ID pivoted to support the ROK 1st Army to clear KPA formations holding the mountainous highlands leading back to the DMZ. Fighting in very difficult terrain, the 2-25 and 4-25 smashed the remnants of the KPA 620th Artillery Corps, the X Corps Headquarters, as well as an MRL brigade. The KPA tried a counterattack, but traded an infantry division from the X Corps for the ROK 76th Reserve Mechanized Division.

Along the eastern flank, the 3rd Cavalry Regiment and the USMC 1st Tank Battalion advanced along the coastal road deeper I to North Korea, occupying the town of Chongion and destroying the PLA 116th Mechanized Brigade, while TF Chosin and the ROK 22nd Division pivoted westward, and forced back the PLAAF 134th Mechanized Airborne Brigade and the PLAN 6th Marine Brigade, punishing the Chinese Marines in the process. Elements of the PLA 79th and 80th Group Armies counterattacked, however, and supported by Z-10 attack helicopters, destroyed the 1st Tanks.

Lessons Learned: a Wounded Animal Still Has Claws. The turn started out very well for the Allies, but they should have sensed some ominous signs when they lost the RAF Typhoons in the air superiority phase. Nevertheless, they managed to weather the Red strike phases, even though they suffered some stinging losses—like the destruction of the USMC F-35Bs to a missile strike—while still pounding the Red Force. Indeed, the main Allied objective in their strike phase was to destroy the Haeju S-300 to open the way for an airborne/amphibious assault, and they were able to do so.

The turn became a disaster, however, with the Red triumph at sea. In spite of early Allied success in sinking PLAN and KPN squadrons, The PLARF finally got lucky, detected a USN carrier, and crippled it with a DF-21 strike. It was finished off by a PLAN attack boat. An entire carrier with its precious air wing was lost in one fell swoop, and the PLAN added a further win by sinking a Virginia-class submarine.

The Allied ground offensive was still very successful, and they inflicted losses that the Red Force really can’t sustain. The airborne/amphibious assault assault on North Korea was very successful, occupying Haeju and drawing off the PLA 78th Group Army from the DMZ. Further, the assault by the 1st Cav may quickly break through the Imjin front, and allow the relief of the Marines and All Americans.

The attack up the middle by the 2nd and 25th Divisions also was successful, and the Indianhead has an opportunity to exploit it either east or west, while the Tropic Lightning looks to be turning east to work with the ROK 1st Army to clear KPA forces from the highlands.

The fight along the east coast took a turn with the Chinese counterattack by the 80th Group Army, but it looks like the Allies have enough combat power to contain it, although their potential drive on Wonsan appears to be stalled, at least for now.

Like a cornered animal, or a weary fighter punching off the ropes, the Red Force struck back hard this turn. They earned a staggering 67 victory points in turn 11, based largely on the loss of the carrier and its air wing. This success actually won back the Red Force the initiative next turn, which gives them an opportunity to recover their lines, and maybe even pound away at the Allied Marines and Paratroopers near Haeju. The Allies looked to be nearing the finish line, but this one turn may have dashed their hopes for an imminent victory and further prolong an already unimaginably deadly and destructive conflict.

Next Time: Turns 12-13, Ceasefire, and Final Thoughts

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Previous Articles from Ian Sullivan:

“All Along The Demilitarized Zone”: Playing Next War: Korea (Part 1)

“All Along The Demilitarized Zone”: Playing Next War: Korea (Part 2)

“All Along The Demilitarized Zone”: Playing Next War: Korea (Part 3)

China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam Series

A Hop, Skip, and an Amphibious Assault — Playing Next War: Taiwan Series

Poland is Not Yet Lost: Playing Next War: Poland Series