Ian M. Sullivan is the Special Advisor for Analysis and ISR at the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command.

Disclaimer: All views expressed in this post are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or Army Training and Doctrine Command

---

Game Turn 3

The KPA offensive lost its momentum, and it was a contested initiative turn. As such, it began with the Air Superiority phase which largely went the Allies’ way. The KPAF lost another six squadrons in the air, losing two of Frescoes, one of MiG-21PF Fishbed, two of Floggers, and one of Fulcrum. The Allies did not get off scot free, however, as the KPAF Fulcrum managed to take down a squadron of ROKAF F-35A before its own destruction.

The SOF phase was more successful for the KPA this turn, and they managed to destroy the repaired Pyongtaek port facility and damage the Seoul-based ROK VI Headquarters. Allied SOF was relatively ineffective this turn, with moderate successes only coming against the KPA’s SCUD force and against two separate corps headquarters.

The strike phase was uneventful this turn. The KPA launched another barrage of ballistic missiles at Osan, Seoul, and Daegu, but each was handled by Allied missile defenses. The USN launched a TLAM strike which damaged the KPA II Corps Headquarters, but that was the only missile strike they launched that turn. The KPAF attempted several air strikes with H-5 Beagles against Incheon Air Base, Seoul, and Chuncheon, but Allied interceptors and SAMs chased them off, with a ROKAF F-15 squadron splashing one of the inbound H-5s. A ROKAF strike on the KPA II Corps Headquarters was ineffective.

The KPA II Corps continued to fix ROK defenses along the Imjin, while KPA forces continued to exploit the breach in Allied lines. The KPA again tried to move an airborne brigade to support a river crossing, but the move was detected by the Allies and USAF F-22s pounced on the transport helicopters, destroying the KPA 58th Airborne Brigade in the air. The 815th Corps forced back a ROK division shielding Uijeongbo, and that city is now at risk. The 820th Corps supported this attack and also pressed south.

The 425th Corps’ leading elements reached the Han River, while the bulk of the corps turned toward Seoul and attacked the city of Namyangju, which was defended by the ROK 28th Division. In a brutal move, the KPA employed chemical weapons in the attack, but the city held on, as the 28th was ably supported cyber forces, ROKAF AH-64s, and ROKAF Vipers. Although the 28th was bloodied, it destroyed a KPA Mechanized Brigade and damaged another.

The two divisions from the KPA V Corps that made it across the Soyang River attacked the city of Chuncheon, but were repulsed. The battered ROK 7th Division was destroyed defending the city, but took out the KPA 5th Division in return.

Further east, the KPA 108th Mechanized Corps threw a bridge across the Soyang River, and its units are reading to cross next turn.

The KPA I Corps also continued its advance along the coast, destroying the ROK 21st Division and capturing the town of Sokcho. 

The Allies were able to reinforce their lines and even to counterattack in the area of Chuncheon. The ROK 1st Marine Division moved into Chuncheon to take up its defense, while the US 1-2 BCT led an attack against the KPA 25th Division, which destroyed it, and allowed the Allies to restore the Soyang line. The 1-82 moved in behind them, while the 11th MEU now is in reserve at Wonju.

Lessons Learned: Stalemate. The KPA advance slowed to a crawl, and they were unable to make substantial gains. They threw themselves at several South Korean cities, but even the brutal use of chemical weapons against an urban target couldn’t budge the Allied defenders. 

The Allies still were pushed back—in some places dangerously so, yet the timely arrival of reinforcements allowed them to hold the line, especially in the Chuncheon area.

The Allies were very successful in the air, and the KPAF has lost almost half of its aircraft. This will allow the Allies to dedicate less aircraft to air-to-air missions and more to strikes and combat support. 

It is unclear how much longer the Allies can hold against the pressure being placed on them across the width of the Peninsula. Both sides are being reinforced; the rest of the 82nd Airborne arrived at Camp Humphreys and USAF and Commonwealth aircraft on one side, while a whole corps arrived for the KPA. And turn 4 will be big, as the first Chinese units should enter the fray.

Game Turn 4

Next War: Korea, Game Turn 4. It was another contested initiative turn. It also saw a change in weather, with overcast conditions rolling across the Peninsula. This had a major impact on flight operations for the KPAF, which has only a handful of all-weather aircraft. As a result, the air superiority phase was very much one-sided, with the KPAF only able to sortie two squadrons of Fulcrum. One was downed by US Raptors, and the other was chased off for no Allied losses. This allowed the Allies to gain air supremacy over the Peninsula.

Realizing that targeting the Allies’ IADS served little purpose, the KPA dedicated its entire SOF force to targeting installations. These strikes were augmented by missile strikes, which finished off one damaged air base, but otherwise were ineffective. The KPA was very successful this turn in this regard, again wrecking the port facilities at Pyeongtaek, and destroying air bases at Daejon and Cheongju. These attacks destroyed three ROKAF squadrons on the ground—two KF-16Cs and one A-50.

Allied strikes were less successful, even though they unleashed waves of heavy bombers. Part of the reason for the lack of success was that they focused on hardened chemical weapons (CW) storage sites to try to reduce the effectiveness of DPRK weapons of mass destruction. Two sites were destroyed and two other were damaged, but this prevented additional wide ranging strikes against surging KPA ground forces.

The fight on the ground was swirling and eventful. The KPA 425th Mechanized Corps was the schwerpunkt of the DPRK advance, and it surged through a gap in the Allied lines, and crossed the Han River east of Seongnam. Its leading elements briefly occupied Seocho Air Base, while two other brigades aimed for Camp Humphreys.

Following behind it, the 820th Mechanized Corps assaulted Namyangju with two brigades, and one of three CW strikes conducted this turn. This attack was successful, shattering the ROK 28th Division in the process. A second less successful CW attack occurred at Seongnam, which was defended by the Headquarters of the ROK V Corps.

The third CW attack occurred at Uijeongbo, where the 815th Mechanized Corps attacked south across the Imjin and also westward from the breach in the Allied lines. The already-battered ROK 5th Division could not hold in the face of this attack, which in addition to CW, also was supported by the massed guns of the 620th Artillery Corps. Uijeongbo is now under DPRK control, and has been made into a KPA supply depot.

Along the Soyang front, the KPA 108th Mechanized Corps bridged the river, and threw four brigades against the ROK 15th Division, which was trying to hold the line. This attack failed, as the 15th was ably supported by ROK cyber attacks against KPA command networks, and ROKAF Vipers and Apaches. The KPA lost a mechanized brigade in the attack and had a another roughly handled.

Additionally, the KPA I Corps continued its steady advance along the coast, but met little success. It’s 2nd Division fought an inconclusive engagement against the ROK 102nd Brigade south of Ganghyeon—now occupied by the DPRK—but accomplished little else.

The Allies faced a significant threat with the breakthrough across the Han, and scrambled frantically to contain it. First, however, another tragedy occurred, with the surrender of the ROK 103rd Brigade, which had held out isolated on the offshore islands since D-Day.

It fell to American formations who had just reached the front lines to contain the breach. First, 1-2 BCT and 1-82 BCT, which had arrived to bolster the Chuncheon front last turn, rapidly shifted west along with the 1/4 Marines and hit the HQ of the 425th Mechanized Corps in the flank. Supported by US cyber attacks, the 2nd ID’s Apaches, and USN Super Hornets, they overwhelmed the headquarters, and each of these formations now hold a blocking position along the Han.

Having arrived last turn at Camp Humphreys, the rest of the 82nd Airborne quickly moved into the attack against a KPA mechanized brigade that was closing on Osan Air Base. Attacking together, 2-82 and 3-82, supported by cyber attacks, their divisional Apaches, and tank-busting USAF Warthogs, the All Americans crushed the KPA brigade, and advanced toward the other that had moved to Seocho Air Base. With its way across the Han sealed by the 1/4 Marines and 1-82, this KPA brigade promptly surrendered.

Along the coast, the ROK 22nd Division hit the left flank of the KPA coastal advance, and destroyed the KPA 13th Division. This likely will halt the I Corps effort there and allow the Allies to potentially shift some forces to the Soyang.)

Lessons Learned: “The enemy is in front of us, the enemy is behind us, the enemy is to the right and to the left of us. He can’t get away this time!, said GEN Douglas MacArthur. And he was right. The KPA advance was all over the Allies this turn, but some quick maneuvering stabilized the situation.

The KPA had several key successes this turn. Their SOF (with some help from their missile force) was outstanding, destroying more Allied aircraft on the ground this turn than the entire KPAF yet has. 

Also, the liberal use of chemical weapons enabled the KPA to break the ROK defenses and occupy two key cities. However, their ambition to cross the Han, which initially looked promising, ended in disaster. But it came close to shattering the Combined Forces Command position. The Allies have chosen to not yet respond to the. CW strike, namely to gain Victory Points for each enemy use. It remains to be seen if this policy will continue.

The timely arrival of US forces allowed the situation to stabilize, but the Allies still face a dangerous situation and their hold of the Han-Soyang line is perilous. Additionally, the fall of Uijeongbo offers the KPA the opportunity to attack westward to break the ROK defenses along the Imjin, which will place Seoul at risk. Furthermore, the KPA has several Corps it has not yet committed, which could prove decisive. Nevertheless, the heavy losses suffered by the KPA means the Allies have seized the initiative.

And although more US forces arrived, included the USMC III MEF, part of the 101st Air Assault Division, and the 2-2 BCT, a new actor is now entering the fray…..enter the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.

Game Turn 5

It was another overcast turn, which kept the KPAF on the ground. It also was an Allied initiative turn, and they were able to launch a series of counterattacks which continued to peck away at the KPA’s combat power.

The SOF phase was underwhelming for the Allies, who scored only one success in the turn; damaging the 820th Mechanized Corps Headquarters. The KPA, and for the first time PLA SOF, were slightly more successful, destroying Gunsan Air Base and severely damaging an airfield northeast of Cheon-an. The ROKAF lost a squadron of A-50s on the ground during these raids.

The air superiority phase promised to be something different, and although the KPAF was unable to fly in the overcast conditions, joining the fight for the first time was the PLAAF, which sortied seven squadrons to contest the air. They were absolutely no match for the numerically and qualitatively superior Allied air forces, which splashed two squadrons of J-10s and one of J-8 for no losses.

The Chinese tried a limited series of ballistic missile strikes against targets across the ROK, but they could not get through the THAAD/Patriot defenses. The Allies launched TLAM against chemical sites, but they caused no damage. Allied air power was slightly more effective. First, USN Growlers decimated the DPRK IADS, which opened the way for air strikes. The most successful were strikes by Australian Hornets, which inflicted more damage against the 820th Headquarters and USAF B-2s, which destroyed a chemical weapons storage site in the DPRK. Finally, close range ballistic missile launched by the Joint Forces Command Headquarters, finished off the 820th Corps Headquarters.

This time, the Allies had the initiative, and they launched a number of attacks designed to whittle down the leading elements of the DPRK advance. Along the Gimpo Peninsula, the ROK 2nd Marine Division launched an attack against two DPRK light brigades, which were advancing toward Gimpo. Supported by two squadrons of ROK Apaches, KF-16s, and ROK cyber attacks, the tough ROK Marines shattered both brigades. One of the Apache squadrons, however, was destroyed in the attack.

US Forces south of the Han, working with the ROK 5th Armored Brigade, attacked eastward out of Hanam, and targeted a KPA Mechanized brigade which was flush against the Han River. Supported by Apaches from the 82nd Airborne, USAF A-10s, and cyber attacks, the Allies wrecked the brigade, which was the southernmost point of the KPA advance. 

Further east, the ROK 23rd Division launched at assault against a KPA 108th Mechanized Brigade that had crossed the Soyang. Supported by ROKAF Apaches, USAF A-10s, and Commonwealth cyber attacks, the 23rd destroyed the brigade and sealed the Soyang crossing point.

Finally, the Allies launched a combined attack along the coast, with the ROK 22nd Division, 102nd Brigade, and the USMC TF III (Task Force Chosin). These formations, supported by USMC AH-1Z, USN Rhinos, and cyber attacks, destroyed the KPA 2nd Division and surged northward, liberating the formerly DPRK occupied towns of Ganghyeon and Sokcho.

The Allies then launched two follow-on attacks. First, the 2-82 BCT, 3-82 BCT, 1-2 BCT, and the ROK 5th Armored Brigade launched an attack against another Brigade from the 425th Corps, supported by USN Rhinos and the 2nd Division’s Apaches. Although the KPA brigade was destroyed, so too was the redoubtable ROK 5th Armored.

A second series of attacks occurred along the coast, where the ROK 22nd Division and 102nd Brigade attacked the KPA I Corps Headquarters, forcing it to retreat back across the DMZ. All and all, the Allies had a fairly good turn on the ground.

But the KPA also continued its offensive. Undeterred by its losses, the KPA II Corps attacked the right flank of the Imjin River line, and supported by the massed guns of the 620th Artllery Corps, shattered the ROK 25th Division. This success makes it very unlikely that the ROK will be able to maintain he Imjin River line, and Seoul now faces a direct threat.

To its left, the KPA IV Corps is attempting to outflank the Allied defenses around Seoul by attacking up the Peninsula toward Gimpo. Augmented by an amphibious landing by a KPA Marine Brigade at Incheon (note the historical irony), the KPA attempted to take Gimpo, which was defended by the just-arrived 1-101 BCT. Although the 1-101 was battered, it held Gimpo, and destroyed the KPA Marines and a light infantry brigade during the fighting. 

The KPA 815th Mechanized Corps was much more successful in its drive toward Seoul. Arranging six brigades and supported by an Artillery brigade, the 815th struck at the Seoul suburb of Guri. The ROK 6th Division crumpled beneath the weight of this assault, and the KPA occupied the city. The 815th’s leading elements are now adjacent to the Seoul metropolis.

Lessons Learned: In like a lamb? Turn 5 was a success for the Allies, who took advantage of the initiative and pounded at the KPA. Most shocking was the inability of the PLA to make any kind of difference this turn. Their missiles were no more successful than those of the KPA, and the PLAAF was roughly handled. China simply lacked the combat power to make a difference this turn, but it gains strength next turn. 

The Allies’ attacks on the ground were well-executed, and the multi-domain capabilities they can mass at any given point is the reason they have held the line thus far. The American and ROK actions along the Han have been very successful in stopping the push south, and the way appeared open momentarily to move northward along the east coast after the essential destruction of the KPA I Corps.

But the KPA has nine lives, and it has deployed an entire fresh corps along the east coast. It has moved two other fresh corps behind the Seoul offensive, which could gain steam. The KPA amphibious assault was a bold stroke that failed, but the IV Corps attack up the Gimpo Peninsula means they will have three paths to the South Korean capital.

The KPA did not employ chemical weapons this turn, namely because their use provides too many victory points to the Allies. Yet they will remain a threat.

It was suggested to me that the PLA should conduct a deep attack against the South, perhaps around Pohang or Daegu. I considered this, but the PLA and KPA will need to find a way to do something about the Allies IADS, air supremacy, and maritime power on the east coast to make it worth it. The DPRK lost two of their three Airborne brigades in the air to Allied SAMs and interceptors, and it was not really worth the risk. Additionally, the ROKN and USN have moved submarines and surface vessels to screen the coast, and the USN carrier afloat in the East Sea inshore is a daunting threat.

Thus far, this fight has been a massive war of attrition, with staggering losses suffered by both sides. Neither side is really in much of a position to break the stalemate, so the slugfest will continue.

Next Time: Turns 6-8

---

Previous Articles from Ian Sullivan:

“All Along The Demilitarized Zone”: Playing Next War: Korea (Part 1)

China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam Series

A Hop, Skip, and an Amphibious Assault — Playing Next War: Taiwan Series

Poland is Not Yet Lost: Playing Next War: Poland Series