Ian M. Sullivan is the Special Advisor for Analysis and ISR at the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command.

Disclaimer: All views expressed in this post are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or Army Training and Doctrine Command

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I just set up Next War: Korea and will give it a run through. This has the makings of a beast of a game; even just setting it up, it has a totally different feel than any of the other Next War games that I have played. I am playing the strategic surprise scenario in the Fall, with full Chinese participation. This would be the absolute nightmare scenario, so I figured it would be the most fun to play. Commonwealth participation is at a “three, which means air, naval, Royal Marines and Paratroopers, while Japan is initially at a “two,” meaning air and naval. I am playing the optional Camp Humphreys rules—namely because after spending some time there in 2018, the game would feel drastically “off” without them—the optional Patriot/THAAD/S-300 rules from Supplement 2, and of course the cyber and submarine rules from Supplement 1. As China will intervene, I am playing with my “house rules” for DF-21/DF-26 ballistic missiles, which I refined while playing Next War: Vietnam. These missiles can target afloat CV’s and/or Amphibious Assault Ships at sea. USN, Japanese, and ROK ships, get a defensive bonus; +1 for the JMSDF and ROKN for the SM-3 SAM and +2 for the USN for the SM-6 SAM. China will get 20 ballistic missile points.

By the way, in the picture, I’m standing on the North Korean side of the table/border at the Joint Security Area at Panmunjom. The ROK MP makes sure you do not mistakenly exit the building and get yourself detained…..

Game Turn 1

The DPRK initiated a bolt out of the blue attack with no warning, and the ROK is reeling. The KPA Strategic Rocket Force began with a wave of ballistic missile strikes against installations across the ROK. Although US THAAD and Patriot missile defense systems were deployed on the Peninsula, they were only moderately successful in defending against the North Korean barrage. Gimpo International Airport was destroyed in the first strike. Suwon Airbase also was severely damaged. In a concerted effort to target US infrastructure on the Peninsula, Osan AB, Kunsan AB, Taegu, and the port at Pyongtaek were targeted, although only the latter was damaged. KPA SOF then launched a punishing series of raids against the Joint Forces Command IADS, which devastated them. 

A second wave of missile strikes and SOF raids were even more successful, and their combined efforts destroyed Suwon and Osan, and left the port facilities at Pyongtaek a smoking ruin. These strikes also destroyed a squadron of USAF F-16s and and a ROK squadron of AH-64 Apaches on the ground. Allied SOF were successful in raiding the DPRK IADS, which was some of the only good news of the turn for them.

Both sides gamely contested the air, which was a very clear demonstration of the quantity versus quality debate. The KPAF put up a gaggle of combat aircraft, some of which dated from just after the First Korean War. The Allies were surprised, but did what they could in the face of the KPAF numbers. For the Allies, the most unpleasant aspect of the air fight was that KPA cyber warriors actually held the advantage, and they confused the Allies critical battle management networks. Although the KPAF suffered more losses—three squadrons of ancient Frescoes, two almost as ancient Farmers, and one each of MiG-21PF Fishbed and Flogger—the Allies surprisingly also suffered air-to-air losses, with single squadrons of USAF Vipers and a ROKAF A-50s splashed. The result was a contested air superiority phase, which must be considered a major victory for the KPAF.

The fight along the DMZ was brutal, although the KPA succeeded in rendering the ROK lines. The fight in the west was relatively static. The KPA airdropped the 38th Airborne Brigade and inserted the 17th Sniper brigade by air assault onto the Incheon Peninsula, which trapped the ROK 103rd Brigade on Seongmodo Island. The KPA 87th Light Infantry Brigade also surged across the Han Estuary to support the attack. The KPA II Corps launched two difficult attacks across the DMZ, which destroyed the ROK 12th Division, but made very minimal gains. II Corps leading elements are now along the Imjin River. 

II Corps elements also attacked eastward in the direction of Uijeongbo, and managed to get across the DMZ. They synchronized this attack with one from the 805th Mechanized Corps, which forced back the ROK 5th Division. Leading elements of the 805th are across the Imjin, while the depleted ROK 5th Division is now the only Allied unit north of the Imjin line.

The most successful and dangerous attack of the KPA’s offensive was carried out by V Corps in the Central sector. V Corps, supported by the 820th Mechanized Corps, Hind attack helicopters, and KPAF ground attack sorties, and taking advantage of hidden tunnels under the DMZ, destroyed two ROK divisions and split the Allied defenses in two.

Along the eastern coast, the KPA I Corps smashed through ROK defenses, destroying the ROK 12th Division and forcing a general retreat. 

For its part, the ROK is trying desperately to reform a defensive line it can hold, but the rupture of the center is a disaster it can ill afford. The ROK is pulling back its forces along the coastal roads, and is gathering what combat power it can to try to hold the Han-Soyang River line. It has only one Armored Brigade to block two KPA Corps from surging through the rupture of the Allied defenses. The ROK did manage one counterattack, with elements of its VI Corps striking west from Uijeongbo, supported by Apaches, destroyed a KPA Light Infantry Brigade, which allowed it to secure the Imjin crossing.

Lessons Learned: Surprise, Surprise! The DPRK’s bolt out of the blue clearly caught the Allies flat footed. Initial missile and SOF strikes were devastating, and the Allies were unable to recover.

The fight in the air was very surprising, as the KPAF’s museum pieces were able to hold their own. Sure, they suffered losses, but downing two Allied squadrons—including a USAF F-16–was a major victory. Combined with losses on the ground, the USAF lost half of its initial fighter strength on turn 1. This was made possible by another significant achievement; the KPA’s ability to win the air superiority cyber fight.

The fighting on the ground was difficult, but went in favor of the KPA. Tunnels and massed artillery made a difference, and the Allies are in trouble. The ROK may have a qualitative edge in equipment, but the well trained KPA light infantry often gave them an advantage in attacks against the ROK.

Turn 1 was a near disaster for the Allies. They cannot shift forces from the Imjin line, or Seoul will be threatened. They have nothing to anchor their defense of the east coast, save some mildly difficult terrain. And they lack combat power to hold the center. The US 1-2 BCT is trying to plow through refugee clogged roads, while the 1-82 BCT and elements of the USMC 11th MEU arrived in Daegu, but they pose a very thin blue line. Perhaps more helpful will be the arrival of a USN carrier battle group, whose air wing can add much needed support. 

I’m guessing the Combined Joint Forces Commander is feeling a sudden kinship to Leonidas about right now.

Game Turn 2

Things were not as smooth for the DPRK this turn. They began the turn with several SOF raids against infrastructure targets and the Allied IADS, but these were generally ineffective. Allied SOF was far more effective this turn, with successful attacks on the DPRK IADS and the KPA V Corps Headquarters. 

The air superiority fight went the Allies way. Neither side gained a cyber advantage, which left the fight on even terms. As a result, the Allies dominated. The KPAF lost six squadrons—four Frescoes, an F-7 Fishbed, and a Flogger—for no Allied losses. The DPRK tried to make up for it with a series of air- and ballistic missile strikes, but this time, Allied defenses were ready. THAAD and Patriot nullified most of inbound missiles, and only Cheongju Airbase suffered light damage. Additionally, ROK F-35s intercepted an KPAF strike package and chased it off, downing the Farmer that was escorting it. By the end of the turn, the Allies gained air superiority.

The Allies were much more successful in their strike phase, as US forces lashed at targets across the battlespace. TLAM from a USN Los Angeles-class SSN and ALCMs from a Guam-based B-52 struck two airfields in the DPRK—Hwangju and Hoeyang—where KPAF Mi-24 Hinds were based. Hwangju was destroyed, and Hoeyang was severely damaged. Then, ROKAF and USN Wild Weasels hit the DPRK IADS, and were followed by waves of USAF heavy bombers, which pounded the DPRK, finishing off Hoeyang, both squadrons of KPAF Hinds, obliterating the damaged KPA V Corps HQ, heavily damaging the II Corps HQ, and even knocking out some SCUD missiles.

The KPA tried to continue their advance south, but Allied resistance stiffened. The KPA II Corps had no luck forcing the Imjin River line, but the KPA was able to move three mechanized through the breach forged by V Corps. The KPA tried to drop the 48th Airborne brigade behind the Imjin line to support II Corps, but ROFAF F-15Ks intercepted them, and destroyed the brigade in the air. The 815th Mechanized Corps moved east and then south, curling toward Uijeongbo and destroying the ROK 1st Armored Brigade in the process. The 105th Mechanized Corps and the 425th Mechanized Corps sliced through the breach, and have the Han River in sight. The IX Corps is right behind them, as a follow-on force. 

The suddenly headquarters-less V Corps pivoted east and threw its leading elements across the Soyang River, striking at the city of Chuncheon, which was defended only by the Headquarters of the ROK II Corps. Supported by US Army Apaches from the 2nd ID, Chuncheon held, and dealt the KPA a stinging rebuke, with a light infantry brigade lost in the attack.

The KPA I Corps and 108th Mechanized Corps continued their advance along the eastern coast and have pushed the ROK defenders back to the Soyang River, where they are desperately holding a line running from Chuncheon to the coast. The ROK 27th Division was destroyed during this fighting.

The Allies were able to form a very thin defensive line in front of Seoul and along the Han-Soyang rivers, but it is paper thin. The US Army’s 1-2 BCT arrived at Wonju, while the Allies flew the entire ROK 1st Marine Division to Wonju Airbase. These two formations, along with the 1-82 BCT and the 11th MEU, which are still in Daegu, represent the sum total of the Combined Forces Command’s reserve, although the USMC III MEF and additional USAF squadrons arrived in Japan.

Lesson Learned: A Ray of Hope. The situation improved slightly for the Allies in Turn 2, but their position remains precarious. Now alerted, Allied defenses were much better prepared to handle the onslaught, and it began with limiting the damage from KPA SOF raids and missile strikes. THAAD and Patriot were worth their weight in gold this turn, and their success allowed for the re-opening of Osan Air Base and Pyongtaek port. Allied reinforcements can now arrive at Camp Humphreys, as well as Daegu. 

The air superiority fight clearly went the Allies’ way, and the fact that the Allied air component could put aloft their total force, augmented by a USN carrier air wing, provided too tall an obstacle for the KPAF to overcome. Air superiority, and the ability to keep aloft additional ISR assets, likely will open the way for additional punishing strikes.

The KPA met tougher resistance, namely because Allied multi-domain capabilities came into play. Key engagements along the entire front were augmented by plentiful Allied offensive cyber operations, attack helicopters, and tactical air power. This made a difference, and slowed the KPA advance.

The KPA actually lost the initiative in Turn 2, and the next turn will be contested. However, the KPA is poised to shape the battlefield in its favor. The three Mechanized Corps running up the middle can either shoot to breach the Han and run south, aim to encircle Seoul, or break to the east to threaten an encirclement if ROK forces there. Each option has a unique set of risks and potential rewards. 

For the Allies, they bought a moment to breathe, but nothing more. They may be able to hold, but they are in no position to push back. They will rely on grit and air power to hold on another day. 

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Previous Articles from Ian Sullivan:

China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam Series

A Hop, Skip, and an Amphibious Assault — Playing Next War: Taiwan Series

Poland is Not Yet Lost: Playing Next War: Poland Series