Disclaimer: All views expressed in this post are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or Army Training and Doctrine Command

Ian M. Sullivan is the Special Advisor for Analysis and ISR at the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command.

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Turn 7

When I tallied up the victory points from last turn, the Allies had gained the initiative and really took advantage of it. Allied SOF hit the Chinese IADS really hard, and also went after a few headquarters units on Taiwan, with limited success. Chinese efforts were ineffective.

The air fight again went the Allies way; they gained Air Supremacy and downed three more enemy squadrons. The most significant air-to-air battle saw the USAF and PLAAF each lose a squadron of Fifth Generation fighters in long-range combat; an F-22 and a J-31. The PLAAF also lost a J-8 FINBACK, and the last operational Malaysian squadron, a MiG-29 FULCRUM. 

With the initiative in hand, the Allies let loose a fusillade of cruise missiles, which ravaged the Chinese IADS and damaged a few headquarters units. Additionally, US submarines targeted a Chinese carrier that was defending the Taiwan Straits with SLCM. The Allies followed up the missile strikes with some punishing air strikes. B-2 bombers flying out of Japan and Guam hit the Taiwan-based S-300s, severely damaging them. Tactical air strikes comprised of US and ROC fighter bombers hit several PLA units operating on the Chiaiyi front. And the coup de Grace came from Carrier-based USN Rhinos, which finished off the wounded PLAN carrier.

The Allies pressed hard at sea after killing the Chinese flattop. They managed to move several submarines, two SAGs—one from the Philippines the other Japanese—a US CVBG, and an ARG into the Taiwan Straits zone. Chinese submarines and a second PLAN carrier were able to kill the Philippines SAG, but the Allies managed to sink a PLAN SAG in response. The Naval Battle for the Taiwan Straits is well under way!

The Allies also pressed hard on the Chiaiyi front. 2-101 and 3-101 launched a deep air assault along the western coast, and coordinated with a push from the 82nd Airborne, broke the Chinese lines, forcing a general withdrawal to the river line outside Tainan and wrecking the last surviving brigade of the PLAAF 44th Airborne Division in the process. These attacks were well supported by Apaches, Warthogs, and cyber attacks. East of the US effort, the ROC launched a series of attacks which destroyed one brigade of the 45th Airborne Division, and forced the rest of it back. 

The Allies were in a less strong position around Kaohsiung, although they did manage to augment the city’s defenses with a reserve brigade, and brought a second reserve brigade to block a bridge just outside the suburb of Fongshan. The Allies also pulled back 1-101 to hold Pingdong.

In spite of the swirling naval action, the PLA was able to bring another division ashore by sea—the 1st Mechanized—and immediately moved it to defend Tainan against the Allied advance. The PLA also flew in the 92nd Infantry Brigade, and set it to defend Tainan proper. 

The only offensive action it took on the Chiaiyi front was a desperate attack by the 45th Airborne to relieve its isolated brigade. This attack shattered a ROC brigade, and allowed the 135th Airborne to break out of its encirclement and fall back toward Tainan.

The Chinese were much more successful on the Kaohsiung front. Chinese were finally able to break the defense of Zuoying, occupying the city, and moving right against Kaohsiung proper. The Chinese were desperate, and even threw unescorted Z-10 attack helicopters and H-5 bombers into this attack. It worked, although Allied air defenses did kill one Z-10 squadron. A flanking move by the PLA 123rd Mechanized Division allowed for a southward thrust along the river toward Fongshan. This advance broke the ROC defenders of Fongshan, and the Chinese also occupied that city. In spite of the Allies success that turn along the west coast, the PLA is in a good position to assault the Kaohsiung metropolis next turn.

Lessons Learned: So this is what you call a running fight. The Allies were on the move after taking the initiative. The deep air assault by two BCTs of the 101st made a huge difference on the Chiaiyi front and was only possible because US BCTs can seek support from any US headquarters. It completely changed the course of that fight, and the Chinese fell back quickly. A rout may have ensued if the PLAN wasn’t able to get a fresh force on the ground to defend its Taiwan-based logistics hub around Tainan. Sometime we forget that there are non-materiel advantages that make a difference. The Army calls it DOTMLPF (doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership, personnel, and facilities.) The non-glamorous factors sometimes are overlooked, but here organization made a difference.

China is gamely contesting the air and sea, but is running out of assets. The allies will soon clear the skies, and the first salvoes of the Battle of the Taiwan Straits clearly went to the Allies, with the destruction of a Chinese carrier.

The PLA has a good shot to take Kaohsiung, but the real question is how much longer they can keep the air- and sea-lanes open to allow reinforcements to flow to their beachhead. Conversely, the Allies efforts at sea Allies will open the way for them to reinforce the island, and relieve the exhausted ROC Army, US Marines, All-Americans, and Screaming Eagles who have been desperately holding off the Chinese. The ROC may need to pull some units out of Kaohsiung to form a second defensive line along the River. Holding the eastern suburb of Siaokang likely will quickly become decisive for both sides next turn. 

Turn 8

Turn 8 is complete, and the fortunes of war took a turn. The Allies again had the Initiative, and continued their offensive. Special Operations had little impact for either side, and the real excitement began in the air.

The Allies again won Air Superiority, but the Chinese put up a tough fight, aided by a successful cyber attack against Allied command and control. The PLAAF lost two squadrons in the air—a Su-30 and a J-15–but managed to kill a ROC Mirage 2000 and damage a USMC F-35B. 

Chinese cyber warriors also successfully aided the naval fight, by locating a US carrier battle group that had moved Into the Taiwan Straits, while preventing the Allies from locating their last carrier. Allied cruise missile damaged the Hunei-based S-300 SAM, but the most significant strike was launched by the Chinese, who targeted the US carrier with a combined submarine launched cruise missile and a shore based DF-21 strike. The carrier killer lived up to its name, and the attack sent the US flattop to the bottom, along with its precious air wing. US submarines pounced on the Type 093 SSN that attacked the carrier, serving a measure of revenge, but the damage was done.

The Allies did launch a series of punishing strikes with its heavy bombers, with the most successful being a strike from a Guam-based B-2 that destroyed the Hunei S-300 SAM. Another strike from a Guam-based B-52 destroyed the headquarters of the PLA’s 124th Division, while tactical air strikes damaged a Chinese mobile supply depot.

The Allies continued their advance toward Tainan spearheaded by the US 82nd Airborne and 101st Air Assault. One large attack, which was well-supported in the cyber domain, and by AH-64s and USMC Hornets, smashed into elements of the PLA 1st Mechanized division, destroying a regiment and sending another retreating across the River into Tainan. A ROC attack just to the east, supported by cyber attacks wrecked a brigade of the PLAAF 45th Airborne Division and forced the rest southward across the River.

The seesaw fighting around Kaohsiung also continued, with the Chinese destroying two USMC battalions and occupying the westernmost part of Kaohsiung proper. Chinese air defenses even managed to down a Japanese Phantom squadron that was attempting to support the Marines. The ROC and the remaining USMC defenders attempted to withdraw across the River at Siaokang to form a new defensively line guarding the roadways running east. They left two brigades to stall the Chinese advance through the city, but a collapse there is likely.

In spite of the raging fight at sea, the Chinese managed to bring ashore a powerful new formation; the 10th Armored Division. It’s three tank regiments moved right into the attack against the US forces moving on Tainan, and struck the All Americans and Screaming Eagles outside Tainan. 2-82 was destroyed in this onslaught, and Chinese armor is now poised to continue the attack into the suddenly vulnerable Americans.

The Americans also were able to get reinforcements to Taiwan. The USMC’s 13th MEU landed by sea at the Port of Taitung and is moving to bolster the defenses outside Kaohsiung. Additionally, the USMC’s I MEF, with a rifle battalion and the 1st Tank Regiment is also marching to the sound of the guns. The Army’s 4-25 BCT landed by air at Sitan Airbase, and moved south to bolster the American lines outside Tainan.

The Allies had one other success, when the 15th MEU, supported by carrier-based Rhinos and naval gunfire, stormed ashore at Penghu and defeated the Chinese defenders. Although losing a battalion in the process, Penghu is again in Allied hands.

Lessons Learned. Fog and friction meet random chance. China made a string of seemingly impossible die rolls, which led to several key successes. Landing the 10th Armored through contested sea lanes was a huge boost, and just as the Americans were pushing the Chinese back to Tainan, they had no answer for three Chinese tank regiments, which smashed into their eastern flank. More amazing was their ability to point detect the American carrier, and then destroy it with cruise and ballistic missiles. The US carrier that survived two near misses, finally went down under a barrage of missiles. Although two other carriers are now in play, they remain vulnerable to the handful of carrier killers the Chinese have left.

The fighting for Kaohsiung also went China’s way, and although the ROC will sell themselves dearly, it’s likely a matter of time before the rest of the metropolis falls.

In spite of their success, the fall of Penghu is another blow to China’s desperate effort to hold open the Taiwan Straits sea zone, and The PLAN is fast running out of assets. Losses are mounting, and still the issue is not decided, but the Chinese will have to take more risks at sea and in the air. Both sides will continue to try to slip through reinforcements, but the moves will be contested and the fighting likely will be fierce. 

Turn 9

When I tallied up the victory points from the last turn, it was dead even, which meant a contested turn. Contested turns play very fast. The SOF phase was a little more eventful, with the most significant strike conducted by Japanese SOF against the PLA’s DF-21/DF-26 carrier killers. The PLA has but one left. PLA SOF scored some minor damage on the Allied IADs.

The air fight again went the Allies’s way, and they downed squadrons of J-10 and J-16 for no losses. The cyber fight against airborne command and control was a wash this turn. The Allies easily maintained Air Supremacy.

This time, the fight at sea went to the Allies. They were able to gain a point detection on the last remaining PLAN carrier, and pounced on it. Three submarines launched SLCMs against it, heavily damaging it, and Super Hornets from a US carrier operating in the South China Sea finished it off. The Chinese were able to conduct an attack on a Japanese SAG with H-5 bombers in the Taiwan Straits, but it suffered only minor damage. They tried to get a second attacks against it with a Kilo SS, but it was unsuccessful.

The Chinese launched a volley of ballistic missiles at ROC airbases and airfields, destroying one airfield. A Ching-Kuo squadron was wrecked as collateral damage. The USAF tried a raid against the S-300 SAM based at Tainan with B-2s, but the bat-winged bombers were driven off. Strike Eagles flying out of Japan did hit the headquarters of the PLA 10th Armored Division operating at Nanzih, but caused only minor damage. Viper Wild Weasels also continued to pound China’s IADS.

The fight on the ground was fairly eventful. The Allies conducted a well-organized attack against the two PLA Armored regiments that hurt them so bad last turn. 3-101, 4-25, and 1-82 were reinforced by the ROC 373rd Mechanized Brigade, and hit the Chinese spearheads from two sides. The PLA dedicated Z-10 attack helicopters and JH-7 strike aircraft to the fight, but ROC Vipers chased off the Flounders. The Allies organized heavy cyber support for the attack, as well as two squadron of Apaches and another of Warthogs. The Allies roughed up one of the regiments and forced them both to retreat across the River.

Just to the east, four ROC brigades hit another PLA armored regiment operating in the rough woods northeast of Tainan. The Allies dedicated cyber support, a squadron of Apaches from the 101st, USMC AH-1Zs, and USMC Hornets to the attack, which was wildly successful. The ROCs actually destroyed the PLA tank regiment.

The Chinese had a slog trying to wrest control of Kaohsiung from its ROC defenders. Six PLA brigades supported by Flounders and Z-10s hit two ROC brigades holding the center of the metropolis. ROC Apaches and F-16s came to their aid. The PLA did not budge the ROC defenders, although the two brigades are now down to one. A Chinese airborne brigade was roughly handled in the assault, but remains in the fight.

The Chinese somehow still managed to bring ashore reinforcements, landing the 127th Mechanized Division. They are deploying it toward Kaohsiung. The Allies flew in most of the USMC’s III MEF, which landed at Sitan Airbase, north of Taichung. They also ran the dangerously contested Taiwan Straits to land the US Army I Corps HQ, the 3rd ACR, a Patriot battery, and the III MEF’s Light Armored Reconnaissance battalion.

Lessons Learned: Convergence is the Key! Although the fighting has been brutal, the Allies control of the air and the PLA’s inability to advance beyond the Tainan River line is allowing the Allies to converge capabilities across domains to hurt the Chinese with well-planned assaults. The two attacks against the Chinese 10th Armored Division were clear examples of successful multi-domain convergence. Allied cyber capabilities are a true combat multiplier, which time and again provide an edge at the moment of decision.

The PLA continues the slog for Kaohsiung. The ROC held their ground, but lost a brigade instead of accepting a retreat result. With high-quality USMC formations now joining with the ROC west of Kaohsiung along the Siaokang River line, the Chinese will be hard pressed to exploit any success they won at Kaohsiung.

The Allied pushes around Tainan, however, have created an opportunity that could be exploited next turn between the rivers running north-south out of Kaohsiung to smash into the Chinese lines. The next few turns could prove decisive.

Next Time: Turn 10 and Final Report

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Previous Articles in this series: 

A Hop, Skip, and an Amphibious Assault — Playing Next War: Taiwan (Part 1)

A Hop, Skip, and an Amphibious Assault — Playing Next War: Taiwan (Part 2)

Next War: Vietnam AAR Series: China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam