Disclaimer: All views expressed in this post are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, or Army Training and Doctrine Command

Ian M. Sullivan is the Special Advisor for Analysis and ISR at the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command.

---

Turn 4

Game Turn 4 was something of a slugfest. Chinese SOF were active, but were basically unsuccessful in their operations. The Allies were far more successful with SOF, conducting raids on the Chinese IADS and against China’s arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles. Philippines SOF even scored against the carrier killer missiles.

Chinese cyber forces successfully won this round, bolstering their AWACS capabilities while snarling Allied C2. It didn’t really help in the air, however, as Allied aircraft beat off their PLAAF adversaries to earn an Air Advantage, although two squadrons of Vietnamese Flankers were downed by the PLAAF. A handful of missile strikes again pounded Taiwan’s airfields, destroying a USAF Viper squadron on the ground. 

China, aided by its cyber warriors, detected a USN ARG in the South China Sea, and SLCMs from a Type 093 SSN and DF-21s sent it to the bottom, with its USMC AH-1Zs aboard. Additionally, a powerful PLAN force consisting of a CVBG, two SAGs, and an amphibious group destroyed a USN SAG inshore of Taiwan. China is now able to move heavier forces by sea onto Taiwan, with the 124th Motorized Division the first to arrive. They also landed an S-300 SAM battery to defend the precious port and airfield at Hunei, and were able to establish a supply depot for the beachhead in Tainan.

The Chinese exploded out of the beachhead, advancing north toward Chiaiyi and east toward Kaohsiung. Advancing PLAN Marines and the 44th Airborne Division, supported by newly arrived Z-10 attack helicopters, shattered two ROC brigades, and advanced north along the highway to Chiaiyi. They were stopped cold, however, by stiffening ROC resistance. Two ROC brigades supported by Apaches and artillery from the 82nd Airborne halted their attack. 1-82 and 3-82, along with two other ROC brigades, and again supported by Apaches, actually counterattacked, and shattered a PLAN Marine Armored Battalion. The Allies seem to have formed a strong defensive position in front of Chiaiyi, and the Chinese will need to bring up fresh troops to push through. 

On the Kaohsiung front, Chinese Marines and the 36th Infantry Brigade, supported by Z-10s destroyed the ROC 298th Motorized Brigade at Renwu. They overextended themselves, however, and were caught by a counterattack from the ROC 117th Brigade and two battalions from the 11th MEU. This attack was supported by USAF A-10s now flying out of Taiwan. Several PLAN Marine Battalions and the 3rd Infantry Brigade were shattered in this fighting. ROC Vipers also intercepted and splashed a strike package of J-11 FLANKERS and H-5 BADGERS trying to support the attack. The remnants of the ROC 8th Corps and the 11th MEU have a strong position in the Kaohsiung metropolis. Although a bit strung out, The ROC 8th Corps also withdrew eastward to defend a key bridge, which if held, will deny the PLAN an opportunity to encircle Kaohsiung. Additionally, elements of the 101st Air Assault Division landed at Hualien Airbase, which provides welcome reinforcement.

Fighting also finally ended in the Senkakus. The PLAN Marines 2-1 Armor, attempting to take advantage of its heavy forces in the attack, launched a last ditch assault against the Japanese Amphibious Infantry Brigade and 1st Airborne Brigade. Supported by naval gunfire from JMSDF and USN SAGs, the Japanese prevailed and reclaimed the Senkakus for the Allies.

Lessons Learned: Sometimes, heavyweights just trade blows. This turn truly was a slugfest in all domains. the Allies were successful in the air, but the Chinese had a major victories at sea, destroying a USN SAG and an ARG. China also had a more successful cyber fight, although the results of it were mixed. In spite of heavy losses at sea, the Allies are closing in on the Taiwan Straits, but the PLAN dominates the Taiwan Straits sea zone and has conducted reliable standoff attacks into the South China Sea, which is becoming something of an Ironbottom Sound for the USN.

The fight on the ground clearly intensified. The Chinese continued their advance, but the ROC, backed by US Marines and the All-Americans, finally stiffened their resistance and even conducted two localized counterattacks. China will need more formations ashore to press the attack. 

China’s losses in the air are starting to tell, particularly as the Allies gain fresh squadrons. The arrival of more B-2s and a squadron of B-1s in Guam will add to Allied strike capabilities. So too will the repaired CVBG in the Philippines. The Allies will need to turn their attention to the PLAN assets in the Taiwan Straits in order to bring more reinforcements to Taiwan and cut off the forces on the island. China needs to hold the Taiwan Straits to keep its invasion rolling. It seems inevitable that the largest naval fight since the Second World War may be soon in the offing.

Turn 5

Turn 5 saw the Allies take the offensive. Both sides had a largely uneventful SOF phase, with some small successes, namely against the Chinese ballistic missile arsenal and the ROC IADS. Counter-SOF was very successful, particularly on the Allies’ side. China is down to only a handful of operational SOF teams.

Both sides again used cyber capabilities to try to gain an edge in the air domain, but they again cancelled each other out. The air superiority fight this turn was a huge victory for the Allies. They downed four PLAAF squadrons—a Su-27 Flanker, a J-10, a Finback, and a Fishbed—for no losses. The Allies swept the skies, and won Air Supremacy. It was a harbinger of ill tidings for the PLA.

China launched a handful of missile strikes, with the most successful coming against the ROC IADS. The Allied struck Chinese land-bases missile forces and the IADs successfully with TLAM. The arrival of long-range bombers also opened the way for additional strikes, the most successful of which came from a B-2 that hit mainland China’s port facilities, and Guam-based B-1s which pounded the IADS. Tactical strikes on Taiwan failed, however, in the face of the S-300 SAMs the Chinese deployed to Hunei. 

At sea, the PLAN managed to damage a Philippines Navy SAG with SLCMs in the South China Sea, but USN Virginia- and Los Angeles-Class SSNs pounced on the PLAN sub, sending the Type 093 SSN to the bottom. With the help of its cyber warriors, the Allies detected a PLAN CVBG in the Taiwan Straits, and a barrage of SLCMs crippled it. The USN tried to finish it off a strike by carrier-Based Super Hornets, but the Rhinos were unable to administer the coup de grace. The stricken Chinese carrier limped into port in China. The Allies tried to sneak a submarine into the Taiwan Straits, but superior PLAN forces destroyed it (a Japanese Oyashio-class SS).

On the ground, the Chinese pressed hard against Kaohsiung. They threw six brigades, including the newly-arrived 124th Motorized Division at a combined ROC-USMC Force holding the city of Zuoying, but failed to take it. Another PLA infantry brigade was destroyed in the effort, along with US 1/4 and 3/3 Marines. 

The Allies, however, launched a counterattack, which forced the Chinese back with casualties, but wrecking the 2/3 Marines in the fight. The Allies then conducted an air assault, landing the 1-101st just outside Fongshang, and with the Marines, hurled back the PLA 124th Division and destroyed a PLAN Marine armored battalion in the process. This attack provided the Allies depth in their Kaohsiung position and has forced the Chinese to the defensive.

The Chinese also pressed on against Chiaiyi, with two brigades of 44th Airborne Division destroying the ROC 924th Reserve Brigade. The Allies, however were able to move the entire 82nd Airborne Division into the attack, and combined with the weight of four ROC brigades and supported by the 82nd’s divisional Apaches, utterly destroyed two brigades of Chinese 44th Airborne Division. The ROC brigades and the 2-82 have pressed forward from Chiaiyi, placing the PLA on the defensive.

Both Allied attacks were ably supported from the air, by both attack helicopters and USAF Warthogs, now flying out of Taiwan. Also, the Allies dedicated significant cyber resources to both attacks, which wreaked havoc on Chinese command and control. The Allied superiority in both quantity and quality in both areas is starting to pay significant dividends.

Lessons Learned: The Allies strike back! The Allies finally had enough resources available to truly hurt the Chinese. Winning air supremacy was a huge victory, and it will complicate China’s efforts to move much needed reinforcements to Taiwan. The fight at sea is still in the balance, but the Allies were able to plink a PLAN SSN and cripple a carrier. The stage is set for a major naval fight in the next turn or two.

The Allies continued their momentum on the ground. The fierce fighting outside Kaohsiung was bloody, but far worse for China. The air assault by 1-101 was very successful, and drove back the Chinese spearheads from the outskirts of the metropolis. The Allied attack outside Chiaiyi was even more successful, and the addition of the 82nd Airborne provided a potent strike force that smashed the PLA 44th Airborne Division. The Allies will be in a position to continue this push with additional ROC formations.

If this turn had a subtitle, it might be Revenge of the Nerds, because Allied cyber operations provided huge combat multipliers that significantly aided the Allied counterattacks. Their edge in this arena is fairly significant, and in spite of the high quality of PLA cyber forces, they already suffered from a numerical disadvantage, and their “losses” have been heavier. 

Turn 6 will see a renewed race by China to land reinforcements, while the Allies maintain their pressure. The rest of the 101st Air Assault landed on Taiwan, which will add significant combat power to the Allied cause.

Turn 6

Turn 6 had a little bit of everything. Both sides’ SOF forces have suffered severe casualties, but continue to launch raids. The Allies were more successful in targeting the Chinese IADS than were the Chinese.

The air superiority fight was a bit more balanced this turn, as the PLAN actually held off the Allies in several engagements, although the Allies still maintain Air Superiority. Four more PLAAF squadrons were splashed in air-to-air engagements; a J-11, a J-10, and two J-7s. No Allied losses occurred, although several squadrons, including an F-22 Raptor, were damaged.

The Naval fight was mixed. The PLAN again damaged the USN CVBG with cruise missiles and DF-21s and forced its retreat to Subic Bay. The Allies, however, conducted a successful series of strikes with their submarines against a PLAN SAG, which was finished off by a strike of carrier-based Rhinos. The PLAN attempted to finish off the wounded carrier by sending in two diesel boats to the South China Sea, but their attack failed, and both SS—a Kilo and a Type 041—were sunk by Allied submarines. 

The Allies tried to launch a series of air strikes against Chinese headquarters units on a Taiwan, but had only a minor success in the face of an S-300-augmented IADS. Allied cruise missiles also damaged the mainland China IADS.

The fight on the ground was swirling, namely because the PLA was able to save some lift, and move two new divisions into the fight. On the Kaohsiung front, the PLA hurled five brigades against the ROC defenders of Zuoying, but the ROC managed to hold the suburb by its fingernails, losing a brigade in the process, but downing a J-8 escorting a close air support package. The PLA 123rd Mechanized launched two separate attacks against a ROC brigade trying to defend the river crossings north of the metropolis, and finally shattered it, opening a way to double back southward against Kaohsiung. The 1-101 and a Marine Light Armored battalion launched a spoiling attack outside Fongshan, however, hurling back two brigades of the PLA 43rd Airborne. The Marine battalion, however, was lost in the fighting. The Allies still are ensconced around Kaohsiung, but suffered a battering. Two ROC brigades and the Marine LAR were lost.

The PLA also continued its advance on Chiaiyi, with the newly arrived 91st Division on the ground. The Chinese attack smashed four ROC brigades and pushed the Allied lines back. The 45th Airborne Division also won a fight against the ROC 586th Armored Brigade, forcing it back. But the Allies had an ace in the hole. The entire 82nd Airborne Division, augmented by the ROC 157th Brigade launched a counterattack against the 91st Division. Supported by two squadrons of Apaches, one of Warthogs, and some excellent cyber attacks against Chinese C2, the Allies smashed the 91st, destroying two brigades and advancing along the coast. The Allies ended the turn on a high note, with the arrival of the rest of the 101^st Air Assault on Taiwan, and a second carrier battle group arriving from the Indian Ocean.

Lessons Learned: A running fight indeed! Neither side has really been able to gain a true advantage, so the result is a true ebb and flow. The Chinese have been been unable to break through, and continue to batter themselves against strong Allied defenses around Kaohsiung. The fight around Chiaiyi is more dynamic. The losses suffered by both sides have been significant. The 82nd Airborne has been the lynchpin of this defense, and its well-timed, well-supported, and well-executed counterattack was a huge blow to the Chinese. 

The Chinese again came close to killing a US carrier, but it managed to escape. Where the fight on the ground is still about even, the Allies success at sea and in the air is starting to tell. The PLAAF has dwindling numbers of active combat squadrons to contest the air, and PLAN naval losses this turn were very crippling. The fight likely will turn on the ability of the Allies to dominate in the air and on the sea, and China is running out of assets. They also are finally running out of missiles, which have been a true combat multiplier for them. The Allies will soon be able to transition combat aircraft to strike missions and close air support, which likely will shift the odds in their favor. 

Next Time: Turns 7-9

---

Previous Article: A Hop, Skip, and an Amphibious Assault — Playing Next War: Taiwan (Part 1)

Next War: Vietnam AAR Series: China’s Red River Dance — Playing Next War: Vietnam