“The state of crisis is the real war; the equilibrium is nothing but its reflex.” -Carl von Clausewitz
War and peace are no longer binary. The US and its peers are now frequently operating in the gray zone between war and peace. This is the case in the South China Sea where China moves aggressively to solidify territorial claims and influence other claimants. The Chinese, by keeping their actions below the threshold of war, limit the US military response. Tensions increase and decrease based on the actions and responses of the participants. Next moves must be measured in the context of their impact on tensions.
Flashpoint: South China Sea works to capture the challenges of operating in that gray zone. A conflict that should not, and likely will not, be settled militarily will have to be managed through negotiation and the thoughtful exercise of military and economic influence. This occurs within the context of events that may impact influence and tension among the countries in the region.
China’s claims are built on their 2,000 year maritime history. These claims are being pressed as a part of a broader Chinese strategy of geographic expansion. Developing islands through dredging and infrastructure construction advances the claims from conceptual to physical. If the Chinese are able to influence the claimant countries in the region away from international forums for dispute resolution, these Chinese islands will strengthen Chinese claims. Time will be on the side of an expanding Dragon.
The US’ challenge is to deal with Chinese actions on the Chinese “home court”. In order to protect the sovereignty of those claimant countries being challenged by China, the US must continue to support them, build influence and counterbalance the Chinese threat. Without US support, the Chinese will easily be able to influence claimants to their advantage and dominate the region.
There are roughly half a billion people who live within 100 miles of the South China Sea coastline thus the region’s importance cannot be understated. It is a critical fishery, contains potentially lucrative natural resources, and is a critical shipping lane for the world. Approximately 12 per cent of the global fish catch comes from the South China Sea. With thousands of fishing vessels in the region, approximately 55% are Chinese. Many of the disputes in the region are grounded in fishing rights and intrusions. The South China Sea’s hydrocarbon reserves of at least seven billion barrels of oil and an estimated 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas offer tremendous economic opportunity for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, and energy security for China’s growing economy.
The South China Sea is one of the world’s busiest international sea lanes. Fifty percent of the world’s oil tankers pass through the South China Sea (three times more tanker traffic than the Suez Canal and more than five times that of the Panama Canal). As Asian trade has increased, maintaining freedom of navigation has become critically important to the region. China’s initiative to develop the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road initiative communicates the South China Sea’s importance to China.
In the coming months I will share here perspective on the conflict and the game Flashpoint: South China Sea. I will work to answer the questions of who is involved, what is the history and what can happen in the future. We will share the game’s mechanisms to help you understand how it works and what my goals are in designing the game. Until the next installment, send questions my way!
Harold Buchanan
Author: Harold Buchanan
The statements on China’s resource motivations and the natural resource data in the SCS are exaggerated (probably Chinese sources). (https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=10651) U.S. National Strategists now see China’s primary motivation in its acquisitionary strategy as being one of strategic sea zone control. Basing defenses on both outer and inner island chains create a significant buffer to better defend the Chinese mainland from U.S. carrier groups…..also, much leverage will be gained over North East Asian countries dependent on the flow of oil through the SCS. I recommend reassessing Chinese strategic drivers to adjust any possible overemphasis on resources. China would proceed with its strategy if the SCS was devoid of life and oil. Christopher A. Ford published an amazing piece in Strategic Asia 2016-17, (“Realpolitik with Chinese Characteristics: Chinese Strategic Culture and the Modern Communist State”) that gives insight into the political motivations and justifications used by the CCP for their strategy in the SCS. After all of that said, I’m really looking forward to your game!
Hey Scott
Thanks for the support. Regardless of numbers or source (USGS), hydrocarbons are a part of the stress, as are fisheries, shipping routes, expansionism and history. The game does not contemplate that debate – the conflict is real and underway. In effect the players can source their own “why are we here”.
I love finally having news of this game.
A few questions:
-Solite or two players (or both options?)
-From what I’ve been seeing, it’s a CDG game. With what game could I compare their mechanics.
-Components and approximate cards number?
-Release date?
-The name is already definitive (Flashpoint)?
Good luck with this game, we will be waiting for news.
Some of the answers are in the own page of GMT / P500 …
So the questions would be:
Release date?
How does it work in solitaire?
How does the game system work?
Thx…
Hello Sam
Thanks for the interest.
The release date is up to GMT and will be heavily influenced by pre-sales We will know more in the coming months.
More to follow on the solitaire system as it is still in development but it will deal with rules based hierarchy to make choices for the non player. I expect to fold some aspect into the cards but that needs to be tested.
Game system is card driven with the card allowing player to execute an event or operations.
More to come here on this page.
“More to follow on the solitaire system as it is still in development but it will deal with rules based hierarchy to make choices for the non player. I expect to fold some aspect into the cards but that needs to be tested.”
A Card Based Bot System would be possible?, as in “All Bridges Burning”
https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/1904353/card-based-bot-system
Hi,
I am sorry but I am a little new to this. What is board game solitaire? Is it a game’s one player playability level?
Thanks
Yes. If a game has a well-designed solitaire system, you can play it alone, either playing all sides yourself, or playing one side while the game’s “bots” portray the other side(s). This is usually done through a player aid that gives you a flowchart of the appropriate actions to take for the opposing “player.” Personally I enjoy solitaire games the most, since I have trouble finding people to play these games with me. So a game’s solitaire playability is paramount on my list of importance in whether I’m interested in buying it.
Interesting topic. Do you have an estimated play time for a game? I’m looking for a game to introduce a friend to games of this sort and do not want to overwhelm him.
Hi Tony,
Harold will have a better feel for exact playtime based on the current playtest. When I played it a couple months back, it took about 45 minutes – and I think that’s about what Harold is aiming for.
Hello Tony
Gene is on it. I hope to get play time to 30 – 45 minutes between players who have played before. i am also optimizing for fast teach time. My vision is this can very much be a first wargame – first game.